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“很多人将经历阵痛”:Claude Code开发者称,软件工程师岗位今年或将消失

Jacqueline Munis
2026-02-26

鲍里斯·切尔尼预测,借助Cowork这类工具,人工智能将拓展到“几乎所有可以在计算机上完成的工作”。

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2026年2月16日,联合创始人及首席执行官达里奥·阿莫迪出席在印度班加罗尔举办的Anthropic公司开发者峰会。图片来源:Samyukta Lakshmi—Bloomberg via Getty Images

数十年来,进入大型科技公司担任软件工程师,就意味着拥有稳定职业与六位数的起薪。但这位引发硅谷震动的人工智能工具开发者表示,这一岗位可能在今年年底前消失。

一年前面世的Claude Code,已经被软件工程师广泛使用,并彻底改变了他们的工作模式。这款工具比传统的借助聊天机器人进行氛围编程更为先进:它是代理式人工智能,只需要极少人工干预,就能够自主完成各项任务。一位谷歌(Google)资深工程师称,该工具一小时就可以完成原本需要一整年才能完成的工作。其开发者鲍里斯·切尔尼认为,程序员将迎来不可避免的变革。

切尔尼最近在莱尼·拉奇特斯基主持的《莱尼播客》(Lenny’s Podcast)节目中说:“我认为到今年年底,人人都会成为产品经理,人人都会编程。‘软件工程师’这一头衔将逐渐消失,取而代之的将是‘开发者’,而这会让很多人经历阵痛。”

切尔尼深有体会,部分原因在于过去数月间,Claude Code已经能够完成全部编码工作。这款工具最初只是他在Anthropic公司类似贝尔实验室(Bell Labs)的实验部门工作时进行的一个副业项目。在公开发布前,该工具已经在内部工程师中迅速普及。

“自去年11月以来,我再也没有手动编辑过一行代码。”他表示,同时解释自己仍然会检查代码。“我认为我们还没有到完全放手的地步,尤其是在大量用户运行该程序的情况下。你必须确保代码准确无误、安全可靠。”

切尔尼预测,到今年年底,许多其他公司和程序员也会让Claude编写所有代码。本月初,Anthropic公司发布了Cowork——这款面向非程序员、操作更友好的编码产品迭代版本,能够自主执行操作。这项技术尤其擅长处理日常管理和组织任务,切尔尼在1月接受《财富》杂志采访时表示,在团队成员未更新共享电子表格时,他会用这款工具自动在Slack上给对方发送提醒消息。

切尔尼称Claude Code或将成为下一个印刷术

切尔尼指出,使用Claude Code时工程师仍然需要理解底层原理,但“一到两年后,这一点也将不再重要”。

他将软件工程师对人工智能的应用比作抄写员与印刷机的关系。切尔尼解释道,印刷术发明之前,抄写员就是负责读写的人群,仅占人口极小比例。他援引一份未具名的“历史文献”中对抄写员的访谈称,随着越来越多人学会读写,抄写员不再需要耗费大量时间手抄书籍,使得他们可以把精力投入到自己更感兴趣的事情上,比如书籍装订或绘制插图。

在近期科技颠覆浪潮中,另一位硅谷人物马克·扎克伯格也钟爱印刷术的比喻,他将社交媒体对其他媒体的颠覆,比作印刷术的诞生对传统传播方式的冲击。

多年来,扎克伯格反复提及这一比喻。媒体理论家和历史学家指出,印刷术的诞生,不仅极大地动摇了宗教与政治权威,也催生了宣传造势和“假新闻”的新时代,新教改革、天主教会的长期衰落,便是这一变革带来的标志性结果。可以说,世界还在消化社交媒体革命带来的余波,而另一项堪比印刷术的颠覆性发明,已然来到我们面前。

自称“高产程序员”的切尔尼表示,Claude为他腾出了大量时间,让他能够专注于工作中自己最享受的部分。

他说:“我现在的感受就是,再也不必做那些枯燥乏味的编程工作了。工作中最有乐趣的部分,是明确要打造什么产品、提出创意、与用户交流、思考这些庞大的系统、畅想行业未来,与团队成员协作——而现在我能更多地投入这些工作。”

计算机相关岗位的全面变革

切尔尼预测,借助Cowork这类工具,人工智能将拓展到“几乎所有可以在计算机上完成的工作”。

“现在回想一年前的工程开发工作,当时根本没有人真正知道什么是智能体,也没有人真正使用过。”他说,“但如今,这已经成为我们开展工作的常规方式。”

随着Claude接入Google Docs、电子邮件和Slack,半技术与非技术性岗位也正在迎来同样的变革。当被问及如何在颠覆性变革中脱颖而出时,切尔尼给出建议。

“要试用这些工具,了解它们,不要畏惧它们。只管投身其中、大胆尝试,站在技术前沿,勇于探索。”他说道。

切尔尼还建议各领域从业者向通才方向发展。他解释道,Claude Code团队从产品经理到财务人员都掌握编程技能,而顶尖工程师往往兼具设计、底层架构或商业领域的专长。

“我认为未来几年获益最多的人群,不只是人工智能时代的原住民,也不只是能熟练运用这些工具的人,更是那些拥有好奇心、具备通才特质,可以够跨多学科领域,从更宏观的角度思考要解决的问题,而非只盯着工程开发环节的人。”

鉴于人工智能体可能引发大规模就业震荡,切尔尼重申了Anthropic公司管理层一贯的立场。他表示,这项技术对未来的影响“不应由我们决定”,社会需要就工作未来展开更广泛的讨论。

切尔尼补充道,Anthropic公司“高度重视”这项技术可能带来的颠覆性影响,已经聘请经济学家及政策与社会影响专家评估该技术。

尽管如此,和其他人工智能公司一样,Anthropic公司并未表明将放缓技术快速迭代的步伐,且计划今年启动首次公开募股。

“我认为在此期间,技术变革将带来巨大颠覆,许多人将经历阵痛。”切尔尼坦言。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

数十年来,进入大型科技公司担任软件工程师,就意味着拥有稳定职业与六位数的起薪。但这位引发硅谷震动的人工智能工具开发者表示,这一岗位可能在今年年底前消失。

一年前面世的Claude Code,已经被软件工程师广泛使用,并彻底改变了他们的工作模式。这款工具比传统的借助聊天机器人进行氛围编程更为先进:它是代理式人工智能,只需要极少人工干预,就能够自主完成各项任务。一位谷歌(Google)资深工程师称,该工具一小时就可以完成原本需要一整年才能完成的工作。其开发者鲍里斯·切尔尼认为,程序员将迎来不可避免的变革。

切尔尼最近在莱尼·拉奇特斯基主持的《莱尼播客》(Lenny’s Podcast)节目中说:“我认为到今年年底,人人都会成为产品经理,人人都会编程。‘软件工程师’这一头衔将逐渐消失,取而代之的将是‘开发者’,而这会让很多人经历阵痛。”

切尔尼深有体会,部分原因在于过去数月间,Claude Code已经能够完成全部编码工作。这款工具最初只是他在Anthropic公司类似贝尔实验室(Bell Labs)的实验部门工作时进行的一个副业项目。在公开发布前,该工具已经在内部工程师中迅速普及。

“自去年11月以来,我再也没有手动编辑过一行代码。”他表示,同时解释自己仍然会检查代码。“我认为我们还没有到完全放手的地步,尤其是在大量用户运行该程序的情况下。你必须确保代码准确无误、安全可靠。”

切尔尼预测,到今年年底,许多其他公司和程序员也会让Claude编写所有代码。本月初,Anthropic公司发布了Cowork——这款面向非程序员、操作更友好的编码产品迭代版本,能够自主执行操作。这项技术尤其擅长处理日常管理和组织任务,切尔尼在1月接受《财富》杂志采访时表示,在团队成员未更新共享电子表格时,他会用这款工具自动在Slack上给对方发送提醒消息。

切尔尼称Claude Code或将成为下一个印刷术

切尔尼指出,使用Claude Code时工程师仍然需要理解底层原理,但“一到两年后,这一点也将不再重要”。

他将软件工程师对人工智能的应用比作抄写员与印刷机的关系。切尔尼解释道,印刷术发明之前,抄写员就是负责读写的人群,仅占人口极小比例。他援引一份未具名的“历史文献”中对抄写员的访谈称,随着越来越多人学会读写,抄写员不再需要耗费大量时间手抄书籍,使得他们可以把精力投入到自己更感兴趣的事情上,比如书籍装订或绘制插图。

在近期科技颠覆浪潮中,另一位硅谷人物马克·扎克伯格也钟爱印刷术的比喻,他将社交媒体对其他媒体的颠覆,比作印刷术的诞生对传统传播方式的冲击。

多年来,扎克伯格反复提及这一比喻。媒体理论家和历史学家指出,印刷术的诞生,不仅极大地动摇了宗教与政治权威,也催生了宣传造势和“假新闻”的新时代,新教改革、天主教会的长期衰落,便是这一变革带来的标志性结果。可以说,世界还在消化社交媒体革命带来的余波,而另一项堪比印刷术的颠覆性发明,已然来到我们面前。

自称“高产程序员”的切尔尼表示,Claude为他腾出了大量时间,让他能够专注于工作中自己最享受的部分。

他说:“我现在的感受就是,再也不必做那些枯燥乏味的编程工作了。工作中最有乐趣的部分,是明确要打造什么产品、提出创意、与用户交流、思考这些庞大的系统、畅想行业未来,与团队成员协作——而现在我能更多地投入这些工作。”

计算机相关岗位的全面变革

切尔尼预测,借助Cowork这类工具,人工智能将拓展到“几乎所有可以在计算机上完成的工作”。

“现在回想一年前的工程开发工作,当时根本没有人真正知道什么是智能体,也没有人真正使用过。”他说,“但如今,这已经成为我们开展工作的常规方式。”

随着Claude接入Google Docs、电子邮件和Slack,半技术与非技术性岗位也正在迎来同样的变革。当被问及如何在颠覆性变革中脱颖而出时,切尔尼给出建议。

“要试用这些工具,了解它们,不要畏惧它们。只管投身其中、大胆尝试,站在技术前沿,勇于探索。”他说道。

切尔尼还建议各领域从业者向通才方向发展。他解释道,Claude Code团队从产品经理到财务人员都掌握编程技能,而顶尖工程师往往兼具设计、底层架构或商业领域的专长。

“我认为未来几年获益最多的人群,不只是人工智能时代的原住民,也不只是能熟练运用这些工具的人,更是那些拥有好奇心、具备通才特质,可以够跨多学科领域,从更宏观的角度思考要解决的问题,而非只盯着工程开发环节的人。”

鉴于人工智能体可能引发大规模就业震荡,切尔尼重申了Anthropic公司管理层一贯的立场。他表示,这项技术对未来的影响“不应由我们决定”,社会需要就工作未来展开更广泛的讨论。

切尔尼补充道,Anthropic公司“高度重视”这项技术可能带来的颠覆性影响,已经聘请经济学家及政策与社会影响专家评估该技术。

尽管如此,和其他人工智能公司一样,Anthropic公司并未表明将放缓技术快速迭代的步伐,且计划今年启动首次公开募股。

“我认为在此期间,技术变革将带来巨大颠覆,许多人将经历阵痛。”切尔尼坦言。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

For decades, a Big Tech career in software engineering promised a stable job and a six-figure starting salary. Now that job title could be gone by the end of this year, according to the man who created the artificial intelligence (AI) tool that is sending convulsions through the Valley.

Claude Code, which was released a year ago, has been widely adopted by software engineers and revolutionized how they approach their work. The tool is more sophisticated than traditional vibe coding with a chatbot. Rather it’s agentic, meaning it can autonomously execute tasks with minimal human intervention. One senior Google engineer said it re-created a year’s worth of work in an hour. Its creator, Boris Cherny, sees an inevitable change coming for coders.

“I think by the end of the year, everyone is going to be a product manager, and everyone codes. The title software engineer is going to start to go away,” Cherny said recently on an episode of Lenny’s Podcast, hosted by Lenny Rachitsky. “It’s just going to be replaced by ‘builder,’ and it’s going to be painful for a lot of people.”

Cherny knows this in part because Claude Code has written 100% of his code for months. Originally designed as a side project, Cherny developed Claude Code while working in Anthropic’s Bell Labs–style experimental division. The tool was quickly adopted by engineers internally before it was released to the public.

“I have not edited a single line by hand since November,” he said, explaining that he still checks the code. “I don’t think we’re at the point where you can be totally hands-off, especially when there’s a lot of people running the program. You have to make sure that it’s correct. You have to make sure it’s safe.”

Cherny predicts that many other companies and coders will have Claude write all of their code by the end of this year, too. Earlier this month, Anthropic released Cowork, a more user-friendly version of the coding product for non-coders that can take autonomous action. The technology is particularly adept at daily management and organization tasks, and Cherny told Fortune last month that he uses it to automatically message team members on Slack when they haven’t updated shared spreadsheets.

Claude Code could be the next printing press, Cherny says

With Claude Code, Cherny says that engineers still have to understand the underlying principles, but “in a year or two, it’s not going to matter.”

He compared software engineering and AI adoption to scribes and the printing press. Before printing, scribes were the people who read and wrote and were only a small percentage of the population, he explained. As more people learned to read and write, scribes spent less time copying books by hand, which allowed them to spend time doing things they were more interested in, like bookbinding or drawing art in books, he said, citing an unnamed “historical document” of an interview with a scribe.

The printing press metaphor was beloved in a recent era of tech disruption by another Silicon Valley figure: Mark Zuckerberg, who likened social media’s disruption of other media to the creation of print.

Zuckerberg has repeatedly returned to this metaphor through the years, while media theorists and historians have noted that the printing press was a major development in undermining religious and political authorities while also giving rise to a new era of propaganda and “fake news.” The Protestant Reformation and the long-term decline of the Catholic Church was a famous byproduct. Arguably, the world is still digesting the aftershocks of the social media revolution before a new printing-press-like invention is upon us.

A self-described “prolific coder,” Cherny said Claude has freed up a lot of time for him to focus on the parts of his job he enjoys most.

“This is how I feel where I don’t have to do the tedious work anymore of coding,” he said. “The fun part is figuring out what to build, and coming up with this. It’s talking to users. It’s thinking about these big systems. It’s thinking about the future. It’s collaborating with other people on the team, and that’s what I get to do more of now.”

A shift for all computer-based jobs

Cherny predicted that AI will expand “to pretty much any kind of work that you can do on a computer,” with tools like Cowork.

“When I think back to engineering a year ago, no one really knew what an agent was, no one really used it,” he said. “But nowadays it’s just the way that we do our work,” he said.

The same shift is happening with semi- and non-technical jobs now that Claude can interact with Google Docs, email, and Slack, he said. When asked about how to succeed during this moment of disruption, Cherny offered some advice.

“Experiment with the tools, get to know them, don’t be scared of them. Just dive in, try them, be on the bleeding edge, be on the frontier,” he said.

He also recommends that people across all fields become more generalists. Everyone on Claude Code’s team codes, from the product manager to the finance guy, he explained, and the strongest engineers also have an aptitude for design, infrastructure, or business.

“I think a lot of the people that will be rewarded the most over the next few years, they won’t just be AI native, and they don’t just know how to use these tools really well, but also they’re curious and they’re generalists, and they cross over multiple disciplines and can think about the broader problem they’re solving rather than just the engineering part of it, he said.

With the scale of potential job disruption AI agents could cause, Cherny repeated a common refrain used by Anthropic leaders. He said that the future implications of the technology “shouldn’t be up to us,” and that society needs to have a larger conversation about the future of work.

Anthropic takes the disruption “very, very seriously,” Cherny added, and employs economists and policy and social impact experts to assess the technology.

Still, like other AI companies, Anthropic has not indicated that it intends to slow the pace of rapidly changing technology, as it plans an initial public offering this year.

“I do think in the meantime, it’s going to be very disruptive, and it’s going to be painful for a lot of people,” Cherny said.

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