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“七巨头”让指数基金不再安全,投资者该如何应对?

“七大科技巨头”过强,导致被动型投资者一向青睐的指数基金成了一个高风险的投资工具。

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纽交所的交易员。图片来源:Michael Nagle—Bloomberg/Getty Images

“七大科技巨头”过强,导致被动型投资者一向青睐的指数基金成了一个高风险的投资工具。

霍华德・西尔弗布拉特是一名已经退休的标普道琼斯指数高级分析师。他近日指出,标普500指数作为美股风向标,虽然它去年的表现不像前几年那样高光,但仍实现了16.39%的涨幅,剔除通胀因素后仍高于10%的年平均回报率。

但凡事不能只看表现。标普500看似涨势喜人,但它主要是靠几家头部公司拉动的,其中就包括所谓的“科技七巨头”。过去几年间,它们一直是美股上涨的核心动力。整个美股市场的增长引擎高度集中,这对指数基金而言无疑是坏消息。过去几十年,指数基金凭借其安全性,一直是被动投资者的首选,但是现在它们的风险水平却攀升到了一个高位。

换句话说,当市场的表现高度依赖少数几只科技股时,指数基金便失去了分散投资的缓冲作用,其涨跌开始完全取决于这几家头部科技公司的表现。

在AI热潮的推动下,“七巨头”的市值合计已接近标普500指数的三分之一。加拿大皇家银行的一份报告指出,在AI红利的作用下,英伟达、谷歌母公司Alphabet、微软、Meta等“七巨头”,贡献了去年标普500指数一半以上的涨幅。

2026年开年以来,“七巨头”的表现参差不齐,行情上涨的只有亚马逊、Alphabet和Meta。截至2月4日,亚马逊年内涨幅为3.38%,Alphabet达到8.5%,Meta为4.79%。

传统观念一般认为,指数基金因为分散了投资,所以一般会比较安全。但随着市场高度集中化,这种固有认知正在被打破。现在,先锋领航、富达投资等一些全球头部的资管公司都向投资者发布了预警,指出指数基金已经出现了“非分散化”风险。

比如先锋领航旗下跟踪标普500指数的全市场基金VFIAX的招股书显示,受市场高度集中化的影响,该基金在某些情况下可能会从法律层面被认定为一支“非分散化”的基金。

不过THG证券咨询公司的联合创始人扎克・莱文尼克认为,这种情况本质上是由于市场格局发生了改变,而非指数基金本身出现了问题。

他在接受《财富》采访时称:“当前股市的集中度处于长期以来的高位,这意味着市场很可能会被几家头部企业的权重所扭曲。”

如何评估指数基金的风险

对于被动投资者而言,指数基金仍是一个相对安全的选择。但是在现代金融史上,像这样高集中度的市场确实是罕见的。当然,过去几年,美股市场连续实现两位数的增长,与这种高集中度也不无关系。但是就在三年前的2022年,美股一度遭遇重挫,标普500指数当年下跌了19.4%,酿成2008年以来最严重的一次股灾。

投资顾问机构约翰逊投资顾问公司(Johnson Investment Counsel)的资产管理团队首席投资官查尔斯・莱因哈特对《财富》表示,现在任何利空消息都有可能导致股市快速下跌,因为“现在的头部股票不仅市值更大,波动率更高,彼此间的联动性也更强”。

尽管在极端情况下,几乎所有投资资产都难以独善其身,但是投资者当下仍可采取一些行动,避免过度暴露于高风险投资中。

比如莱文尼克建议,为了规避额外风险,防止投资受损,投资者不妨看看那些高估值的科技和AI概念股以外的板块。当然投资者也可以继续投资科技板块,但也应拓宽投资视野,关注一下那些虽然规模较小,但具备稳健商业模式的企业。

他表示:“当下正是调整投资组合的好时机,投资者可以考虑一些估值相对合理、规模也并不是很大的企业。调整投资组织的时机,必须是在坏事发生前。”(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

“七大科技巨头”过强,导致被动型投资者一向青睐的指数基金成了一个高风险的投资工具。

霍华德・西尔弗布拉特是一名已经退休的标普道琼斯指数高级分析师。他近日指出,标普500指数作为美股风向标,虽然它去年的表现不像前几年那样高光,但仍实现了16.39%的涨幅,剔除通胀因素后仍高于10%的年平均回报率。

但凡事不能只看表现。标普500看似涨势喜人,但它主要是靠几家头部公司拉动的,其中就包括所谓的“科技七巨头”。过去几年间,它们一直是美股上涨的核心动力。整个美股市场的增长引擎高度集中,这对指数基金而言无疑是坏消息。过去几十年,指数基金凭借其安全性,一直是被动投资者的首选,但是现在它们的风险水平却攀升到了一个高位。

换句话说,当市场的表现高度依赖少数几只科技股时,指数基金便失去了分散投资的缓冲作用,其涨跌开始完全取决于这几家头部科技公司的表现。

在AI热潮的推动下,“七巨头”的市值合计已接近标普500指数的三分之一。加拿大皇家银行的一份报告指出,在AI红利的作用下,英伟达、谷歌母公司Alphabet、微软、Meta等“七巨头”,贡献了去年标普500指数一半以上的涨幅。

2026年开年以来,“七巨头”的表现参差不齐,行情上涨的只有亚马逊、Alphabet和Meta。截至2月4日,亚马逊年内涨幅为3.38%,Alphabet达到8.5%,Meta为4.79%。

传统观念一般认为,指数基金因为分散了投资,所以一般会比较安全。但随着市场高度集中化,这种固有认知正在被打破。现在,先锋领航、富达投资等一些全球头部的资管公司都向投资者发布了预警,指出指数基金已经出现了“非分散化”风险。

比如先锋领航旗下跟踪标普500指数的全市场基金VFIAX的招股书显示,受市场高度集中化的影响,该基金在某些情况下可能会从法律层面被认定为一支“非分散化”的基金。

不过THG证券咨询公司的联合创始人扎克・莱文尼克认为,这种情况本质上是由于市场格局发生了改变,而非指数基金本身出现了问题。

他在接受《财富》采访时称:“当前股市的集中度处于长期以来的高位,这意味着市场很可能会被几家头部企业的权重所扭曲。”

如何评估指数基金的风险

对于被动投资者而言,指数基金仍是一个相对安全的选择。但是在现代金融史上,像这样高集中度的市场确实是罕见的。当然,过去几年,美股市场连续实现两位数的增长,与这种高集中度也不无关系。但是就在三年前的2022年,美股一度遭遇重挫,标普500指数当年下跌了19.4%,酿成2008年以来最严重的一次股灾。

投资顾问机构约翰逊投资顾问公司(Johnson Investment Counsel)的资产管理团队首席投资官查尔斯・莱因哈特对《财富》表示,现在任何利空消息都有可能导致股市快速下跌,因为“现在的头部股票不仅市值更大,波动率更高,彼此间的联动性也更强”。

尽管在极端情况下,几乎所有投资资产都难以独善其身,但是投资者当下仍可采取一些行动,避免过度暴露于高风险投资中。

比如莱文尼克建议,为了规避额外风险,防止投资受损,投资者不妨看看那些高估值的科技和AI概念股以外的板块。当然投资者也可以继续投资科技板块,但也应拓宽投资视野,关注一下那些虽然规模较小,但具备稳健商业模式的企业。

他表示:“当下正是调整投资组合的好时机,投资者可以考虑一些估值相对合理、规模也并不是很大的企业。调整投资组织的时机,必须是在坏事发生前。”(财富中文网)

译者:朴成奎

The giant tech stocks that constitute the Magnificent Seven are making index funds, passive investors’ favorite safe investing tool, riskier.

While not as high as previous stellar years, the S&P 500, which tracks the broader market, still recorded a double-digit gain last year of 16.39%, several percentage points higher than the index’s 10% average annual return, not accounting for inflation, according to now-retired senior index analyst for S&P Dow Jones Indices, Howard Silverblatt.

But underneath the surface, the market’s respectable growth has been fueled by just a handful of companies, including several that make up the so-called Magnificent Seven, a group of high-performing, tech-related companies that have driven a large amount of stock market growth over the past several years. This large concentration in the broader market is bad news for index funds, which have for decades attracted passive investors for being among the safest bets in investing, but are now looking riskier than they have in years past.

In other words, when a few megacap stocks do all the heavy lifting, index funds lose their value as a diversified cushion, instead rising and falling based on Big Tech’s fortunes.

Partly fueled by the AI frenzy, the Magnificent Seven have grown to account for about a third of the S&P 500. And thanks in part to these AI-fueled gains, only seven stocks, including Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms, represented just over half of the S&P 500’s annual gains last year, according to a note by RBC Bank.

To be sure, the Magnificent Seven have had a mixed start to 2026, with only Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta recording a gain so far this year. Amazon was up 3.38%, Alphabet was up 8.5%, and Meta was up 4.79% year to date as of Wednesday.

While index funds have traditionally been viewed as diversified investments, increasing market concentration is changing this assumption. Already some of the world’s biggest investment management companies, including Vanguard and Fidelity, have made changes to their disclosures to warn investors of “non-diversification” risk.

According to the prospectus of Vanguard’s broad market fund, VFIAX, which tracks the S&P 500, the fund could at some point become technically “nondiversified” under the law that governs investment funds because of how concentrated the market is.

But, it’s the market that has changed, not the funds themselves, said Zach Levenick, cofounder of THG Securities Advisors.

“Concentration [in the stock market] is high, higher than it’s been for a long time,” he told Fortune. “And that means things in markets are potentially distorted by the weights of the very highest companies.”

How to weigh index fund risk

While index funds are still a relatively safe investment for passive investors, there have been very few periods in modern financial history in which so few companies accounted for such a large amount of market value. As stocks have gone up over the past several years, this trend has meant back-to-back double-digit stock market gains and overall growth. Yet only three years ago in 2022, stocks tanked and the S&P 500 ended the year down 19.4%, its worst annual drop since 2008.

Any bad news weighing down the market could also bring prices down quickly, because “today’s largest stocks are not only bigger, they’re also more volatile and more correlated with each other,” Charles Rinehart, chief investment officer of the asset management team at registered investment advisor Johnson Investment Counsel, told Fortune.

While in the worst of cases nearly all portfolios may be inevitably affected, investors can act now to avoid being too overexposed to risky investments.

To avoid any extra risk or the possibility of a hit to your portfolio, Levenick said he recommends looking for value outside of the potentially overpriced tech behemoths and AI plays currently making waves. While investors can still keep their investments in tech, they may want to broaden their horizons by seeking out smaller companies with a dependable business.

“This is the time to be adjusting your portfolio to favor some stuff that maybe isn’t so expensively valued or isn’t very, very large in size,” he said. “The time to adjust your portfolio is before the bad stuff starts happening.”

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