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微软积压订单规模翻倍至6250亿美元,却引发投资者担忧

Amanda Gerut
2026-01-30

在资本支出大幅攀升的情况下,Azure云平台营收增速放缓,这两大迹象表明,微软难以满足人工智能领域的需求。

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2026年1月20日,微软(Microsoft)首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉(Satya Nadella)在达沃斯世界经济论坛年会期间作出回应。图片来源:Photo by Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP via Getty Images

这份财报包含令人瞠目的数据:微软云业务季度营收突破500亿美元里程碑,在OpenAI的助力下,积压订单规模已翻倍不止,达到6250亿美元。然而这家科技巨头的股价在盘后交易中暴跌近5%,原因在于其第二季度财报显示,Azure云服务营收增速放缓,且微软承认产能受限问题将“至少”持续至本财年末(6月收官)。

在周三收盘后的分析师财报电话会议上,微软董事长兼首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉、首席财务官艾米·胡德(Amy Hood)被追问投资者的核心顾虑:在资本支出大幅攀升的情况下,Azure云平台营收增速放缓,这两大迹象表明,微软难以满足人工智能领域的需求。这两项数据也引发外界质疑:微软能否按计划快速完成算力基础设施的扩容,这一瓶颈是否会进一步限制Azure的业务增长。从本质上看,投资者担忧,这或许是微软亮起的首个预警信号。

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)美国软件研究主管基思·韦斯(Keith Weiss)在电话会议中指出:“令投资者忧心的核心问题之一,是资本支出增速超出预期,而Azure云服务营收增速却略低于预期。这本质上关乎对资本支出长期回报率的担忧,即随着时间的推移,这些资本支出能否带来相应回报。”

先明确核心财务数据:仅2026财年第一季度,微软的资本支出就高达349亿美元,其中约半数用于采购图形处理器(GPU)、中央处理器(CPU)等硬件资产——这些芯片应用于个人电脑、服务器及Azure数据中心。第二季度,微软资本支出约为375亿美元,使得上半年资本支出总额达到724亿美元,凸显出公司在基础设施领域的巨额投入。在第一季度的沟通中,胡德曾向投资者表示,市场需求持续增长、公司剩余履约义务规模不断攀升,这意味着公司将增加芯片采购支出。

与此同时,Azure业务增长趋于平缓,增速从第一季度的40%降至第二季度的39%。“我们持续在各类工作负载、客户群体和区域市场中看到强劲需求,且需求持续超过现有供应能力。”胡德在电话会议中表示。

最新财报数据引发投资者对产能限制和投资回报率的思考。

胡德驳斥了投资者将资本支出与Azure营收数据直接挂钩的观点。“有时候,我认为更合理的方式是,将我们公布的Azure业绩指引,视作反映其营收的产能分配指引。”胡德回应韦斯提问时解释道。

“我们当前的首要任务,是应对微软365 Copilot、GitHub Copilot两款产品使用量增加、销量增长以及加速普及带来的问题。”她补充道。在此之后,微软将资金投入研发与产品创新,二者均属于长期投资。“剩下的资金会用于满足Azure业务持续增长带来的产能扩张需求。”胡德表示。

胡德表示,如果微软将第一、二季度新增的图形处理器全部调配给Azure使用,那么Azure的增速将远高于公司公布的39%。

纳德拉强调了胡德的观点,他指出,投资者应综合评估整个人工智能业务板块的表现。他表示投资者“显然”应关注Azure,但也不应忽视微软365 Copilot、GitHub Copilot、Dragon Copilot和Security Copilot——这些产品均搭载人工智能技术。

纳德拉称:“拓展Azure的客户群体对我们至关重要,但赢得微软365、GitHub或是Dragon Copilot的客户同样重要。”他还表示,算力方面的投入,同样具备研发投资的属性。

“你必须将算力投入也视作研发支出,这是这类投资的第二重属性。”纳德拉说道,“我们显然正充分运用所有这些资源进行优化,以促进公司长远发展。”

尽管如此,投资者仍担忧,持续存在的产能受限问题可能导致这家科技巨头无法像华尔街预期的那样,迅速将创纪录的积压订单(在申报文件中以剩余履约义务的形式呈现)转化为营收增长。此外,在下一季度财报中,投资者将关注是否出现营收增长的信号,以验证基础设施投入的合理性。

尽管投资者忧心忡忡,股价在盘后交易中下跌,但最新财报仍释放出诸多积极信号。微软第二季度营收达813亿美元,较去年同期的696亿美元增长17%,远超公司此前给出的795亿至806亿美元的业绩指引区间。营业利润从317亿美元增长21%至383亿美元,稀释后每股收益从3.35美元上涨24%至4.14美元。更值得关注的是,云业务季度营收首次突破500亿美元大关,达到515亿美元,同比增长26%。

微软剩余履约义务同比增长110%,达到6250亿美元,这一增长一定程度上得益于10月公司与OpenAI达成的2500亿美元合作承诺。胡德表示,投资者无需担忧公司对这一核心合作伙伴的风险敞口,并指出,公司剩余履约义务中,约有3440亿美元源于多元化的其他客户群体,这部分业务规模同比增长28%,胡德称这一增速远超微软的多数同行。

胡德还表示:“约55%、也就是3500亿美元的剩余履约义务涉及我们多元的产品组合、广泛的客户群体——涵盖各类解决方案、Azure云服务、不同行业及全球区域市场。坦率而言,我们对此信心十足。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

这份财报包含令人瞠目的数据:微软云业务季度营收突破500亿美元里程碑,在OpenAI的助力下,积压订单规模已翻倍不止,达到6250亿美元。然而这家科技巨头的股价在盘后交易中暴跌近5%,原因在于其第二季度财报显示,Azure云服务营收增速放缓,且微软承认产能受限问题将“至少”持续至本财年末(6月收官)。

在周三收盘后的分析师财报电话会议上,微软董事长兼首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉、首席财务官艾米·胡德(Amy Hood)被追问投资者的核心顾虑:在资本支出大幅攀升的情况下,Azure云平台营收增速放缓,这两大迹象表明,微软难以满足人工智能领域的需求。这两项数据也引发外界质疑:微软能否按计划快速完成算力基础设施的扩容,这一瓶颈是否会进一步限制Azure的业务增长。从本质上看,投资者担忧,这或许是微软亮起的首个预警信号。

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)美国软件研究主管基思·韦斯(Keith Weiss)在电话会议中指出:“令投资者忧心的核心问题之一,是资本支出增速超出预期,而Azure云服务营收增速却略低于预期。这本质上关乎对资本支出长期回报率的担忧,即随着时间的推移,这些资本支出能否带来相应回报。”

先明确核心财务数据:仅2026财年第一季度,微软的资本支出就高达349亿美元,其中约半数用于采购图形处理器(GPU)、中央处理器(CPU)等硬件资产——这些芯片应用于个人电脑、服务器及Azure数据中心。第二季度,微软资本支出约为375亿美元,使得上半年资本支出总额达到724亿美元,凸显出公司在基础设施领域的巨额投入。在第一季度的沟通中,胡德曾向投资者表示,市场需求持续增长、公司剩余履约义务规模不断攀升,这意味着公司将增加芯片采购支出。

与此同时,Azure业务增长趋于平缓,增速从第一季度的40%降至第二季度的39%。“我们持续在各类工作负载、客户群体和区域市场中看到强劲需求,且需求持续超过现有供应能力。”胡德在电话会议中表示。

最新财报数据引发投资者对产能限制和投资回报率的思考。

胡德驳斥了投资者将资本支出与Azure营收数据直接挂钩的观点。“有时候,我认为更合理的方式是,将我们公布的Azure业绩指引,视作反映其营收的产能分配指引。”胡德回应韦斯提问时解释道。

“我们当前的首要任务,是应对微软365 Copilot、GitHub Copilot两款产品使用量增加、销量增长以及加速普及带来的问题。”她补充道。在此之后,微软将资金投入研发与产品创新,二者均属于长期投资。“剩下的资金会用于满足Azure业务持续增长带来的产能扩张需求。”胡德表示。

胡德表示,如果微软将第一、二季度新增的图形处理器全部调配给Azure使用,那么Azure的增速将远高于公司公布的39%。

纳德拉强调了胡德的观点,他指出,投资者应综合评估整个人工智能业务板块的表现。他表示投资者“显然”应关注Azure,但也不应忽视微软365 Copilot、GitHub Copilot、Dragon Copilot和Security Copilot——这些产品均搭载人工智能技术。

纳德拉称:“拓展Azure的客户群体对我们至关重要,但赢得微软365、GitHub或是Dragon Copilot的客户同样重要。”他还表示,算力方面的投入,同样具备研发投资的属性。

“你必须将算力投入也视作研发支出,这是这类投资的第二重属性。”纳德拉说道,“我们显然正充分运用所有这些资源进行优化,以促进公司长远发展。”

尽管如此,投资者仍担忧,持续存在的产能受限问题可能导致这家科技巨头无法像华尔街预期的那样,迅速将创纪录的积压订单(在申报文件中以剩余履约义务的形式呈现)转化为营收增长。此外,在下一季度财报中,投资者将关注是否出现营收增长的信号,以验证基础设施投入的合理性。

尽管投资者忧心忡忡,股价在盘后交易中下跌,但最新财报仍释放出诸多积极信号。微软第二季度营收达813亿美元,较去年同期的696亿美元增长17%,远超公司此前给出的795亿至806亿美元的业绩指引区间。营业利润从317亿美元增长21%至383亿美元,稀释后每股收益从3.35美元上涨24%至4.14美元。更值得关注的是,云业务季度营收首次突破500亿美元大关,达到515亿美元,同比增长26%。

微软剩余履约义务同比增长110%,达到6250亿美元,这一增长一定程度上得益于10月公司与OpenAI达成的2500亿美元合作承诺。胡德表示,投资者无需担忧公司对这一核心合作伙伴的风险敞口,并指出,公司剩余履约义务中,约有3440亿美元源于多元化的其他客户群体,这部分业务规模同比增长28%,胡德称这一增速远超微软的多数同行。

胡德还表示:“约55%、也就是3500亿美元的剩余履约义务涉及我们多元的产品组合、广泛的客户群体——涵盖各类解决方案、Azure云服务、不同行业及全球区域市场。坦率而言,我们对此信心十足。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

It was an earnings report that contained some stunning numbers: Microsoft reported crossing a significant $50 billion quarterly revenue milestone for its cloud business, and said its demand backlog had more than doubled, to $625 billion, with a boost from OpenAI. But the tech giant’s stock tumbled nearly 5% in after-hours trading, following a second quarter earnings release that showed a slowdown in Azure revenue growth and capacity constraints that Microsoft admitted will extend to “at least” the end of its fiscal year in June.

During the earnings call with analysts after market close on Wednesday, chairman and CEO Satya Nadella and chief financial officer Amy Hood were pressed on investor fears over a slowdown in revenue growth for the Azure platform amid soaring capital expenditures—both signs that the company is struggling to keep up with AI demand. Those two figures combined have given rise to questions about whether Microsoft can build out computing capacity as fast as planned, and if that issue will further limit Azure’s growth. Essentially, investors are worried they might be seeing the first blush of a yellow flag.

“One of the core issues that is weighing on investors is capex is growing faster than we expected, and maybe Azure is growing a little bit slower than we expected,” said Keith Weiss, head of U.S. software research at Morgan Stanley, during the call. “That fundamentally comes down to a concern on the [return on investment], on this capex spend over time.”

To level-set: Microsoft spent $34.9 billion on capital expenditures in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 alone, with roughly half dedicated to assets including GPUs and CPUs, which are the chips it uses in PCs, servers, and the Azure data centers. In Q2, capex was roughly $37.5 billion, which brought the first half total to $72.4 billion, signaling significant infrastructure spending. In the first quarter, Hood told investors the company was seeing growing demand and a rising RPO balance that meant it would increase its chips spending.

Meanwhile, Azure growth flattened out, falling from 40% in the first quarter to 39% in the second. “We continue to see strong demand across workloads, customer segments and geographic regions, and demand continues to exceed available supply,” said Hood during the call.

The latest earnings figures have investors thinking about capacity constraints, and ROI questions.

Hood pushed back on the idea that investors should draw a direct correlation between capital expenditures and Azure’s revenue figures. “Sometimes I think it’s probably better to think about the Azure guidance that we give as an allocated capacity guide about what we can deliver in Azure revenue,” Hood told Weiss in response to his question.

“The first thing we’re doing is solving for the increased usage and sales and the accelerating pace of the M365 Copilot, as well as GitHub Copilot,” she said. Then, Microsoft invests in R&D and product innovation, which are both long-term investments. “You end up with the remainder going toward serving the Azure capacity that continues to grow in terms of demand,” said Hood.

If Microsoft had allocated all new GPUs from the first and second quarters exclusively to Azure, Hood stated, Azure’s growth would have been well above the 39% Microsoft reported.

Nadella underscored Hood’s point, noting that investors should evaluate performance across the entire AI enterprise. He said investors should “obviously” consider Azure, but shouldn’t forget about Microsoft 365 Copilot, Github Copilot, Dragon Copilot, and Security Copilot, all of which incorporate AI.

“Acquiring an Azure customer is super important to us, but so is acquiring an M365, or a GitHub or a Dragon Copilot [customer],” said Nadella. He said compute spending also functions as an R&D-like investment.

“You’ve got to think about compute as also R&D, and that’s sort of the second element of it,” said Nadella. “And so we’re using all that, obviously, to optimize for the long term.”

Still, investors are likely to remain concerned that the ongoing capacity constraints could prevent the tech giant from converting its record RPO backlog, reported in filings in the form of remaining performance obligations (RPO), into revenue growth as fast as Wall Street expects. In addition, investors will be looking next quarter for signs that the infrastructure spending is justified by revenue growth.

Despite the investor concerns and the after-hours stock drop, much of the news from the latest earnings report was positive. Microsoft reported second quarter revenue of $81.3 billion, up 17% from $69.6 billion a year ago, leapfrogging past the company’s guidance of $79.5 billion to $80.6 billion. Operating income grew 21% to $38.3 billion from $31.7 billion, while diluted earnings per share rose 24% to $4.14 from $3.35. Moreover, the cloud business cracked $50 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time ever, hitting $51.5 billion, growth of 26% year over year.

RPO was up 110% year over year to $625 billion, driven in part by a $250 billion commitment from OpenAI that was announced in October. Hood said investors shouldn’t worry about the exposure to one of Microsoft’s major partners, pointing out that roughly $344 billion of the RPO came from a diverse set of other customers. RPO from that set of customers grew 28% year over year, which Hood said was larger than most of Microsoft’s peers.

Some “55% or roughly $350 billion is related to the breadth of our portfolio, breadth of customers, across solutions, across Azure, across industries, across geographies,” said Hood. “Frankly, I think we have super high confidence in it.”

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