
尽管企业利润飙升、美国GDP持续增长,该国劳动力却未能分享繁荣红利。美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的数据显示,劳动者报酬在GDP中的占比正在不断下降,同时美国就业增长势头预计将持续放缓。
根据美国劳工统计局在上周发布的《劳动生产率与成本》报告,2025年第三季度劳动收入占比(即以工资和薪金形式流向劳动者的经济产出百分比)降至53.8%,是自1947年该机构追踪这一经济数据以来的最低水平。上一季度,这一比例为54.6%;本十年间,该指标的平均值为55.6%。
与之形成鲜明对比的是,企业盈利飙升——2024年,《财富》美国500强企业的利润达到1.87万亿美元,创下历史新高。美国2025年第三季度GDP增长4.3%,超出经济学家的预期。
经济学家警示,这种经济增长不仅以牺牲劳动者的财富分配份额为代价,还对美国劳动力市场规模造成冲击。
得克萨斯农工大学(Texas A&M)布什政府与公共服务学院(Bush School of Government)的劳动经济学家雷蒙德·罗伯逊对《财富》杂志表示:“劳动收入占比下降,要么是因为劳动者薪资水平下滑,要么是因为就业人数减少。而收入占比降低的原因在于财富分配向资本端倾斜。”
事实上,越来越多的迹象表明,在国民收入不断增长的同时,美国劳动力规模却在萎缩。2025年12月,美国失业率小幅回落至4.4%,但仍然高于一年前4.1%的水平。此外,2025年美国雇主新增就业岗位仅58.4万个,而2024年的新增岗位数量高达200万个。
企业业绩亮眼与劳动力市场数据疲软形成鲜明反差,这引发了经济学家的担忧。他们认为,这种“无就业增长”现象不仅会损害美国劳动力市场,还会加剧“K型经济”的分化趋势,即富人愈发富有,穷人愈发贫穷。
罗伯逊称:“当前各项数据呈现出复杂且矛盾的态势,但所有数据都指向同一个结论:劳动者的处境正在不断恶化,而亿万富豪群体的境遇则持续向好。”
解析“无就业增长”现象
罗伯逊将劳动收入占比均值的持续走低归因于自动化技术的普及。他指出,自动化正在取代人力岗位,而衡量劳动者产出的生产率指标却在持续攀升。第三季度GDP数据显示,美国非农生产率的年化增长率飙升至4.9%。
“所有这些因素正在逐步取代人力,同时也在不断加剧收入与资本份额的集中化趋势。”他说。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析师约瑟夫·布里格斯和萨拉·董在本周发布的一份报告中称,基于美国劳工部(U.S. Department of Labor)的就业数据测算,人工智能自动化或将取代25%的总工时。他们预测,在人工智能技术普及应用的阶段,人工智能驱动的生产率提升15%将导致6%至7%的岗位被取代,失业人数最多时将增加100万。
分析师指出,岗位替代规模虽然不容小觑,但技术变革催生的大量新岗位将缓解自动化带来的冲击。
根据沃顿商学院(Wharton)2025年9月发布的简报,自动化预计将显著提升企业利润和GDP,到2035年有望推动美国GDP增长1.5%。安永会计师事务所(EY)开展的《美国人工智能脉动调查》显示,已有初步迹象表明人工智能已经开始推动生产力提升——与人工智能领域投资不足的企业相比,投资金额达到1000万美元及以上的企业,生产率已经出现显著提升。
罗伯逊补充道,失业率上升(预计将在未来数月持续攀升)会抑制工资增长,进而推动利润率和盈利规模扩张。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的经济学家本周在给客户的报告中指出,近期生产率飙升仍存“疑问”,并不能将其普遍归因于人工智能或自动化技术的普及。分析师认为这种增长可能是周期性的,或是新冠疫情时期企业以少博多商业策略的遗留效应。
牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economists)在本月初发布的研究简报指出,企业正在将过度招聘导致的裁员,粉饰为人工智能技术应用的必然结果,不过该报告称,自动化引发的大规模裁员尚未发生。此外,尽管过去一年失业率呈小幅上升态势,但仍然处于相对较低的水平。
移民政策收紧对美国劳动力市场产生反噬效应
美国国家政策基金会(National Foundation for American Policy)的高级研究员马克·雷格茨认为劳动力市场增长放缓另有原因。他告诉《财富》杂志,特朗普政府推行的移民政策收紧,并未实现白宫副幕僚长斯蒂芬·米勒等官员宣称的“增加本土劳动力数量”的目标。相反,雷格茨指出,特朗普的移民政策不仅造成外籍劳动力锐减,还导致美国本土劳动者的就业机会减少。
美国劳工统计局的最新家庭调查显示,自2025年1月以来,外籍劳动力数量减少88.1万人,较2025年3月的峰值缩减了130万人。这一趋势与美国国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)在2025年发布的报告相吻合——该报告指出,由于移民被驱逐出境,或因为忌惮美国敌对的政治环境而拒绝入境,美国人口增长步伐放缓。
雷格茨说:“各项数据都在敲响警钟——我们正在流失各类移民人才,而这些人本来可以推动美国经济发展。”
他补充道,美国失业率从2024年12月的3.7%持续攀升,这恰恰驳斥了米勒关于“移民政策收紧有助于扩大美国劳动力规模”的论点。事实上,外籍劳动力减少反而可能导致美国本土劳动者更难找到工作。
雷格茨称:“若企业无法为特定岗位招到所需人才,那么该公司可能直接关停相关业务,而非继续运营。”
他指出,职场中的多元技能人才能够提升生产率,进而为扩大雇佣规模提供有力支撑。与此同时,移民数量的增加还可以促进消费支出、刺激商业活动,并且促使企业利用充裕的劳动力市场资源招募本土员工,而非将岗位外包至海外。
扭转劳动力萎缩趋势
罗伯逊表示,虽然更友好的移民政策有助于扭转外籍劳动力外流的趋势,但要扩大美国劳动力规模,关键在于应对工作场所的自动化浪潮。
他说:“如今,诸多行业开展工作均需依托技术赋能,这类岗位的需求将持续增长,但从业者仍然需要投入大量精力提升专业技能。”
年轻一代劳动者已经做好准备,积极适应不断变化的就业环境。美国学生信息交换中心(National Student Clearinghouse)的数据显示,Z世代正在纷纷涌入职业技术学校,期望谋得木工、焊工等不易被人工智能取代的工作;2024年,职业类社区大学的入学人数增长了16%。
企业也已经主动承担起为员工提供再培训的责任。2024年,Express Employment Professionals与哈里斯联合开展的民意调查显示,68%的招聘经理计划在年内为员工提供再培训,这一比例较2021年的60%有所提升。尽管美国劳工部更新了相关指导方针,鼓励各州完善职场技能培养体系,但罗伯逊指出,数十年来,政府在助力劳动者掌握未来就业所需技能方面做得还远远不够。
罗伯逊表示:“民主党与共和党均未在劳动者技能培训、再培训,以及积极劳动力市场项目(实现劳动者与岗位精准匹配)上投入足够的资源。这才是破解当前困局的明确出路。”
经济学家警告称,若不作调整,就业市场增长放缓的态势将持续下去,同时美国经济维持增长的能力也将引发更大担忧。
雷格茨说:“经济增长需要就业增长支撑,偿还债务同样离不开就业增长。在劳动力持续萎缩的情况下,实在难以想象如何才能实现就业增长。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
尽管企业利润飙升、美国GDP持续增长,该国劳动力却未能分享繁荣红利。美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的数据显示,劳动者报酬在GDP中的占比正在不断下降,同时美国就业增长势头预计将持续放缓。
根据美国劳工统计局在上周发布的《劳动生产率与成本》报告,2025年第三季度劳动收入占比(即以工资和薪金形式流向劳动者的经济产出百分比)降至53.8%,是自1947年该机构追踪这一经济数据以来的最低水平。上一季度,这一比例为54.6%;本十年间,该指标的平均值为55.6%。
与之形成鲜明对比的是,企业盈利飙升——2024年,《财富》美国500强企业的利润达到1.87万亿美元,创下历史新高。美国2025年第三季度GDP增长4.3%,超出经济学家的预期。
经济学家警示,这种经济增长不仅以牺牲劳动者的财富分配份额为代价,还对美国劳动力市场规模造成冲击。
得克萨斯农工大学(Texas A&M)布什政府与公共服务学院(Bush School of Government)的劳动经济学家雷蒙德·罗伯逊对《财富》杂志表示:“劳动收入占比下降,要么是因为劳动者薪资水平下滑,要么是因为就业人数减少。而收入占比降低的原因在于财富分配向资本端倾斜。”
事实上,越来越多的迹象表明,在国民收入不断增长的同时,美国劳动力规模却在萎缩。2025年12月,美国失业率小幅回落至4.4%,但仍然高于一年前4.1%的水平。此外,2025年美国雇主新增就业岗位仅58.4万个,而2024年的新增岗位数量高达200万个。
企业业绩亮眼与劳动力市场数据疲软形成鲜明反差,这引发了经济学家的担忧。他们认为,这种“无就业增长”现象不仅会损害美国劳动力市场,还会加剧“K型经济”的分化趋势,即富人愈发富有,穷人愈发贫穷。
罗伯逊称:“当前各项数据呈现出复杂且矛盾的态势,但所有数据都指向同一个结论:劳动者的处境正在不断恶化,而亿万富豪群体的境遇则持续向好。”
解析“无就业增长”现象
罗伯逊将劳动收入占比均值的持续走低归因于自动化技术的普及。他指出,自动化正在取代人力岗位,而衡量劳动者产出的生产率指标却在持续攀升。第三季度GDP数据显示,美国非农生产率的年化增长率飙升至4.9%。
“所有这些因素正在逐步取代人力,同时也在不断加剧收入与资本份额的集中化趋势。”他说。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析师约瑟夫·布里格斯和萨拉·董在本周发布的一份报告中称,基于美国劳工部(U.S. Department of Labor)的就业数据测算,人工智能自动化或将取代25%的总工时。他们预测,在人工智能技术普及应用的阶段,人工智能驱动的生产率提升15%将导致6%至7%的岗位被取代,失业人数最多时将增加100万。
分析师指出,岗位替代规模虽然不容小觑,但技术变革催生的大量新岗位将缓解自动化带来的冲击。
根据沃顿商学院(Wharton)2025年9月发布的简报,自动化预计将显著提升企业利润和GDP,到2035年有望推动美国GDP增长1.5%。安永会计师事务所(EY)开展的《美国人工智能脉动调查》显示,已有初步迹象表明人工智能已经开始推动生产力提升——与人工智能领域投资不足的企业相比,投资金额达到1000万美元及以上的企业,生产率已经出现显著提升。
罗伯逊补充道,失业率上升(预计将在未来数月持续攀升)会抑制工资增长,进而推动利润率和盈利规模扩张。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的经济学家本周在给客户的报告中指出,近期生产率飙升仍存“疑问”,并不能将其普遍归因于人工智能或自动化技术的普及。分析师认为这种增长可能是周期性的,或是新冠疫情时期企业以少博多商业策略的遗留效应。
牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economists)在本月初发布的研究简报指出,企业正在将过度招聘导致的裁员,粉饰为人工智能技术应用的必然结果,不过该报告称,自动化引发的大规模裁员尚未发生。此外,尽管过去一年失业率呈小幅上升态势,但仍然处于相对较低的水平。
移民政策收紧对美国劳动力市场产生反噬效应
美国国家政策基金会(National Foundation for American Policy)的高级研究员马克·雷格茨认为劳动力市场增长放缓另有原因。他告诉《财富》杂志,特朗普政府推行的移民政策收紧,并未实现白宫副幕僚长斯蒂芬·米勒等官员宣称的“增加本土劳动力数量”的目标。相反,雷格茨指出,特朗普的移民政策不仅造成外籍劳动力锐减,还导致美国本土劳动者的就业机会减少。
美国劳工统计局的最新家庭调查显示,自2025年1月以来,外籍劳动力数量减少88.1万人,较2025年3月的峰值缩减了130万人。这一趋势与美国国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)在2025年发布的报告相吻合——该报告指出,由于移民被驱逐出境,或因为忌惮美国敌对的政治环境而拒绝入境,美国人口增长步伐放缓。
雷格茨说:“各项数据都在敲响警钟——我们正在流失各类移民人才,而这些人本来可以推动美国经济发展。”
他补充道,美国失业率从2024年12月的3.7%持续攀升,这恰恰驳斥了米勒关于“移民政策收紧有助于扩大美国劳动力规模”的论点。事实上,外籍劳动力减少反而可能导致美国本土劳动者更难找到工作。
雷格茨称:“若企业无法为特定岗位招到所需人才,那么该公司可能直接关停相关业务,而非继续运营。”
他指出,职场中的多元技能人才能够提升生产率,进而为扩大雇佣规模提供有力支撑。与此同时,移民数量的增加还可以促进消费支出、刺激商业活动,并且促使企业利用充裕的劳动力市场资源招募本土员工,而非将岗位外包至海外。
扭转劳动力萎缩趋势
罗伯逊表示,虽然更友好的移民政策有助于扭转外籍劳动力外流的趋势,但要扩大美国劳动力规模,关键在于应对工作场所的自动化浪潮。
他说:“如今,诸多行业开展工作均需依托技术赋能,这类岗位的需求将持续增长,但从业者仍然需要投入大量精力提升专业技能。”
年轻一代劳动者已经做好准备,积极适应不断变化的就业环境。美国学生信息交换中心(National Student Clearinghouse)的数据显示,Z世代正在纷纷涌入职业技术学校,期望谋得木工、焊工等不易被人工智能取代的工作;2024年,职业类社区大学的入学人数增长了16%。
企业也已经主动承担起为员工提供再培训的责任。2024年,Express Employment Professionals与哈里斯联合开展的民意调查显示,68%的招聘经理计划在年内为员工提供再培训,这一比例较2021年的60%有所提升。尽管美国劳工部更新了相关指导方针,鼓励各州完善职场技能培养体系,但罗伯逊指出,数十年来,政府在助力劳动者掌握未来就业所需技能方面做得还远远不够。
罗伯逊表示:“民主党与共和党均未在劳动者技能培训、再培训,以及积极劳动力市场项目(实现劳动者与岗位精准匹配)上投入足够的资源。这才是破解当前困局的明确出路。”
经济学家警告称,若不作调整,就业市场增长放缓的态势将持续下去,同时美国经济维持增长的能力也将引发更大担忧。
雷格茨说:“经济增长需要就业增长支撑,偿还债务同样离不开就业增长。在劳动力持续萎缩的情况下,实在难以想象如何才能实现就业增长。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
As corporate earnings soar and the U.S. GDP balloons, the American workforce isn’t feeling the same boom. American workers are taking home less of the country’s overall wealth, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show, and employment in the U.S. is set to continue to slow.
Labor share, or the portion of the U.S.’s economic output that workers receive through salary and wages, decreased to 53.8% in the third quarter of 2025, its lowest level since the BLS started recording this data in 1947, according to its labor productivity and costs report published last week. In the previous quarter, labor share was at 54.6%. This decade, the labor share average was 55.6%.
That’s despite corporate earnings skyrocketing, with profits for Fortune 500 companies hitting a record $1.87 trillion in 2024. The U.S. GDP grew 4.3% in the third quarter last year, exceeding economists’ predictions.
That growth has not only come at the expense of how much of the pie of wealth workers are taking home, but also how many Americans are in the workforce, economists warn.
“That decline in the share of labor has got to be either falling earnings or falling numbers of people,” Raymond Robertson, a labor economist at Texas A&M’s Bush School of Government, told Fortune. “The falling share of income is having to do with the shift towards capital.”
Indeed, there are growing signs that as national income balloons, the U.S. workforce is deflating. Unemployment ticked down to 4.4% in December, but still sits above the 4.1% rate from 12 months before. Moreover, employers added just 584,000 jobs in 2025 compared to 2 million added in 2024.
The stark bifurcation of corporate victories and weak labor data raises concerns among economists of jobless growth jeopardizing the U.S. workforce, as well as a K-shaped economy, where the rich get richer while the poor get poorer, becoming more exaggerated.
“Data right now is very mixed,” Robertson said. “But I think it also all consistently points to this idea that things are getting worse for workers and much better for billionaires.”
Making sense of jobless growth
Robertson attributes weakening labor share averages to the rise in automation, which he noted is displacing workers, with productivity—a metric essentially measuring worker output—continuing to rise. Third-quarter GDP data showed nonfarm productivity growth soared to an annualized rate of 4.9%.
“All these things, bit by bit, are replacing people, and they’re concentrating income and their share of capital,” he said.
Goldman Sachs analysts Joseph Briggs and Sarah Dong estimated in a report this week, based on Department of Labor job numbers, that AI automation could displace 25% of all work hours. They predicted that over the course of the AI adoption period, a 15% increase in AI-driven productivity would displace 6% to 7% of jobs, and, at its peak, a 1 million increase in unemployed workers.
The displacement is substantial, the analysts said, but said the impacts of automation will be tempered by a wealth of new jobs created as a result of the technological changes.
Automation is expected to be a boon to corporate profits and GDP, expected to boost GDP by 1.5% by 2035, according to a Wharton brief published in September 2025. Early signs indicate AI is already driving productivity gains, with companies who invested $10 million or more in AI reporting significant productivity gains compared to organizations investing less in the technology, according to EY’s U.S. AI Pulse Survey.
Robertson added that growing unemployment, which he expects to see rise over the next few months, keeps wages down, allowing margins and profits to expand.
To be sure, the recent productivity surge has been an “open question,” Morgan Stanley economists wrote in a note to clients this week, not unanimously attributed to increased adoption of AI or automation. The analysts suggested this increase would be cyclical, or vestigates of pandemic-era habits of companies making more from less.
An Oxford Economists research brief published earlier this month suggested companies are disguising overhiring-related layoffs as a result of AI, but said automation-related workforce reductions have not yet happened en masse. Additionally, while unemployment has been ticking up over the past year, it is still relatively low.
An immigration crackdown backfires on U.S. labor
Mark Regets, senior fellow at National Foundation for American Policy, sees a different reason for a slowing workforce. He told Fortune President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown has not done what Trump administration officials, such as White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, said it would in increasing the number of U.S.-born workers. Instead, according to Regets, Trump’s immigration policies have not only decimated the foreign-born workforce, but has also created fewer opportunities for domestic-born workers to find jobs.
The most recent BLS household survey reveals a decline of 881,000 foreign-born workers since January 2025, and a decline of 1.3 million workers since a March 2025 peak, consistent with the Congressional Budget Office’s report last year indicating shrinking U.S. population growth as a result of migrants being deported or refusing to come to the U.S. out of fear of hostile polities.
“The data is raising huge red flags that we are losing immigrants of all types that we otherwise would be advancing America’s economy,” Regets said.
The rising U.S. unemployment rate, up from 3.7% in December 2024 is counterevidence to Miller’s argument that harsher immigration policy would grow the U.S. workforce, he added. In fact, fewer immigrant workers may actually make it harder for U.S.-born individuals to find work.
“A company unable to find the workers it needs for some roles could shut down operations rather than continuing,” Regets said.
He noted that skillset diversity in a workplace could boost productivity and justify employing more people. Greater immigration can also increase consumer spending and stimulate businesses, as well as encourage businesses to take advantage of ample labor market availability and seek out their labor instead of offshoring jobs.
Reversing a shrinking labor force
While friendlier immigration policies could help reverse an exodus of foreign-born workers, Robertson said addressing the workplace automation push would be key to growing the U.S. workforce.
“There are trades that are technology-assisted,” he said. “Those are going to be in higher demand, but you really still have to have a significant investment in skills.”
The young generation of workers are already prepared to adapt to a changing labor landscape. Gen Z are flocking to trade schools in hopes of a finding a job as a carpenter or welder not so easily outsourced by AI, and in 2024, enrollment in vocation-based community colleges increased 16%, according to data from the National Student Clearinghouse.
Companies have taken it upon themselves to provide reskilling opportunities to employees. An Express Employment Professionals-Harris Poll survey from 2024 found that 68% of hiring managers intended to reskill employees at some point during the year, up from 60% in 2021. While the U.S. Department of Labor updated guidelines to encourage states to adapt workplace development systems, Robertson argued the government hasn’t done enough in several decades to imbue the workforce with necessary skillsets for future jobs.
“Democrats and Republicans have not significantly invested in training [or] the retraining or active labor market programs that you need to match workers to jobs,” Robertson said. “That’s the obvious solution.”
Without changes, economists see the pattern of an employment slowdown continuing, but with greater concern about the ability for the U.S. economy to sustain growth.
“We need job growth to have a growing economy, and I think we need job growth to pay our debts,” Regets said. “I don’t know how you have job growth with a shrinking labor force.”