
最近读新闻,你很容易产生一种错觉:科技界、新闻界和投资圈似乎正在无意中催生一个人工智能“泡沫”。泡沫是否存在仍有争议,但相关讨论已自成气候,愈演愈烈。每一篇预测纳斯达克崩盘的文章都加剧投资者的紧张情绪,进而催生出更多同类文章,世界就这样陷入无尽的循环。
通常,抵御市场波动最有效的方法,是让当下的技术深度融入社会肌理,使其价值不易迅速流失。一旦普通人的真实体验与交易大厅或董事会里的亢奋情绪脱节,危机便可能悄然逼近。
在这方面,我们可以向全球人口排名第89位的国家——我的祖国瑞典取经。上世纪90年代,瑞典政府推出了一项名为“家庭电脑改革”(Hem-PC-reformen)的法案,旨在让每家每户都拥有一台电脑。这一举措常被视为随后数十年科技腾飞、“以小搏大”的起点。它并非某家企业的战略宣言或CEO打造的光鲜工具,而是一项惠及全民的国家政策,旨在将新技术牢固地嵌入日常生活。
时至今日,斯德哥尔摩已成为硅谷以外全球人均独角兽企业数量最多的城市。瑞典的人工智能初创企业正蓬勃发展:为律师提供自动化服务的Legora正以18亿美元估值融资;电动卡车独角兽Einride近日宣布获资1亿美元,用于扩展自动驾驶货运业务;帮助用户用AI开发应用的“氛围编程”平台Lovable是全球增长最快的企业之一;而上个月,企业技术公司Workday以11亿美元收购了我们的公司Sana。
对于一个人口不及纽约州一半、偏居北极圈旁的国家来说,这样的成就已相当亮眼。人们不断追问:瑞典何以取得如此成绩?虽无秘方,但确有几样关键要素。
前述“家庭电脑改革”的推行,部分得益于冬季长达18小时的极夜。漫漫长夜里,瑞典人乐于守在电脑前,在早期互联网环境中探索尝试。
这批具备数字素养的世代随后创建了多家全球领先的科技公司:2003年,Skype成立,旨在普及视频通话技术;同年,开发了《糖果传奇》的游戏公司King诞生;2005年,Klarna问世;2006年,Spotify上线;2009年,Mojang筑起了《我的世界》的第一块方块。
瑞典人深以为傲。这些成功故事证明了我们在全球舞台上的潜力,也为生态系统注入了巨大流动性。Skype和Mojang被微软收购,King被动视(Activision)收购,交易额均达数十亿美元;Spotify于2018年上市,Klarna也在去年早些时候上市。每一个成功故事都造就了一批新的百万富翁,其中许多人深感有责任将资金再投入瑞典的科技与创业领域。
这种飞轮效应塑造了今日瑞典的人工智能产业。我们的成长型企业站在巨人肩上,身处有利于创业的环境中。有潜力的创业者能获得资金支持,投资常来自EQT、Northzone、Creandum等优质机构。在瑞典创业相对容易,股票期权制度也激励着人们创建公司。斯德哥尔摩坐拥瑞典皇家理工学院(KTH)和斯德哥尔摩经济学院(Handelshögskolan),许多创始人同时拥有这两所学校的学位(当然也有不少成功创业者完全未读大学)。此外,瑞典的英语普及率极高。
政府也持续发挥着关键作用。瑞典的研发支出占GDP比重(3.57%)高于任何其他欧洲国家。任何员工均可休六个月的“创业假”(tjänstledighet)去创办企业。为效仿90年代成功的“家庭电脑改革”,首相去年支持推出“瑞典人工智能改革”计划,向所有公务员、学生、教师、研究机构和非营利组织免费提供智能体人工智能技术。
文化层面也有助力。瑞典是沃尔沃(Volvo)和宜家(IKEA)的故乡,其设计理念以功能与形式融合著称。我认识的许多软件工程师都对美学充满热情,他们对待应用登陆页面的精细程度,不亚于审视一把布鲁诺·马松(Bruno Mathsson)设计的椅子。
最后,瑞典也是一个崇尚谦逊的国度(虽然我正写着夸赞本国的文章)。在这里,锋芒毕露通常不受欢迎。尽管这在社会层面或有弊端,但它助力在科技界营造了高度互信、摒弃自负的氛围。不同组织和创业者之间信息共享 freely,因为大家都明白,任何一家瑞典人工智能企业的成功,都将惠及整个生态。
当然,我们仍面临挑战,有些看似琐碎(比如北欧航空,请开通直飞旧金山的航线),有些则关乎根本(例如后期融资仍依赖美国投资者)。
但不可否认,瑞典“广泛普及、深度接纳”的科技发展之路,对世界其他地区具有借鉴意义。如果我们担心人工智能公司估值攀升过快,担心其他经济指标能否及时跟上、避免泡沫,那么我们需要做的,正是将这项技术编织进日常生活。(财富中文网)
Oscar Täckström是Sana公司首席科学家。Fortune.com上发表的评论文章中表达的观点,仅代表作者本人的观点,不代表《财富》杂志的观点和立场。
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
最近读新闻,你很容易产生一种错觉:科技界、新闻界和投资圈似乎正在无意中催生一个人工智能“泡沫”。泡沫是否存在仍有争议,但相关讨论已自成气候,愈演愈烈。每一篇预测纳斯达克崩盘的文章都加剧投资者的紧张情绪,进而催生出更多同类文章,世界就这样陷入无尽的循环。
通常,抵御市场波动最有效的方法,是让当下的技术深度融入社会肌理,使其价值不易迅速流失。一旦普通人的真实体验与交易大厅或董事会里的亢奋情绪脱节,危机便可能悄然逼近。
在这方面,我们可以向全球人口排名第89位的国家——我的祖国瑞典取经。上世纪90年代,瑞典政府推出了一项名为“家庭电脑改革”(Hem-PC-reformen)的法案,旨在让每家每户都拥有一台电脑。这一举措常被视为随后数十年科技腾飞、“以小搏大”的起点。它并非某家企业的战略宣言或CEO打造的光鲜工具,而是一项惠及全民的国家政策,旨在将新技术牢固地嵌入日常生活。
时至今日,斯德哥尔摩已成为硅谷以外全球人均独角兽企业数量最多的城市。瑞典的人工智能初创企业正蓬勃发展:为律师提供自动化服务的Legora正以18亿美元估值融资;电动卡车独角兽Einride近日宣布获资1亿美元,用于扩展自动驾驶货运业务;帮助用户用AI开发应用的“氛围编程”平台Lovable是全球增长最快的企业之一;而上个月,企业技术公司Workday以11亿美元收购了我们的公司Sana。
对于一个人口不及纽约州一半、偏居北极圈旁的国家来说,这样的成就已相当亮眼。人们不断追问:瑞典何以取得如此成绩?虽无秘方,但确有几样关键要素。
前述“家庭电脑改革”的推行,部分得益于冬季长达18小时的极夜。漫漫长夜里,瑞典人乐于守在电脑前,在早期互联网环境中探索尝试。
这批具备数字素养的世代随后创建了多家全球领先的科技公司:2003年,Skype成立,旨在普及视频通话技术;同年,开发了《糖果传奇》的游戏公司King诞生;2005年,Klarna问世;2006年,Spotify上线;2009年,Mojang筑起了《我的世界》的第一块方块。
瑞典人深以为傲。这些成功故事证明了我们在全球舞台上的潜力,也为生态系统注入了巨大流动性。Skype和Mojang被微软收购,King被动视(Activision)收购,交易额均达数十亿美元;Spotify于2018年上市,Klarna也在去年早些时候上市。每一个成功故事都造就了一批新的百万富翁,其中许多人深感有责任将资金再投入瑞典的科技与创业领域。
这种飞轮效应塑造了今日瑞典的人工智能产业。我们的成长型企业站在巨人肩上,身处有利于创业的环境中。有潜力的创业者能获得资金支持,投资常来自EQT、Northzone、Creandum等优质机构。在瑞典创业相对容易,股票期权制度也激励着人们创建公司。斯德哥尔摩坐拥瑞典皇家理工学院(KTH)和斯德哥尔摩经济学院(Handelshögskolan),许多创始人同时拥有这两所学校的学位(当然也有不少成功创业者完全未读大学)。此外,瑞典的英语普及率极高。
政府也持续发挥着关键作用。瑞典的研发支出占GDP比重(3.57%)高于任何其他欧洲国家。任何员工均可休六个月的“创业假”(tjänstledighet)去创办企业。为效仿90年代成功的“家庭电脑改革”,首相去年支持推出“瑞典人工智能改革”计划,向所有公务员、学生、教师、研究机构和非营利组织免费提供智能体人工智能技术。
文化层面也有助力。瑞典是沃尔沃(Volvo)和宜家(IKEA)的故乡,其设计理念以功能与形式融合著称。我认识的许多软件工程师都对美学充满热情,他们对待应用登陆页面的精细程度,不亚于审视一把布鲁诺·马松(Bruno Mathsson)设计的椅子。
最后,瑞典也是一个崇尚谦逊的国度(虽然我正写着夸赞本国的文章)。在这里,锋芒毕露通常不受欢迎。尽管这在社会层面或有弊端,但它助力在科技界营造了高度互信、摒弃自负的氛围。不同组织和创业者之间信息共享 freely,因为大家都明白,任何一家瑞典人工智能企业的成功,都将惠及整个生态。
当然,我们仍面临挑战,有些看似琐碎(比如北欧航空,请开通直飞旧金山的航线),有些则关乎根本(例如后期融资仍依赖美国投资者)。
但不可否认,瑞典“广泛普及、深度接纳”的科技发展之路,对世界其他地区具有借鉴意义。如果我们担心人工智能公司估值攀升过快,担心其他经济指标能否及时跟上、避免泡沫,那么我们需要做的,正是将这项技术编织进日常生活。(财富中文网)
Oscar Täckström是Sana公司首席科学家。Fortune.com上发表的评论文章中表达的观点,仅代表作者本人的观点,不代表《财富》杂志的观点和立场。
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
Reading the media these days, you would be forgiven for thinking the technology, journalism, and investment communities were inadvertently wishing an AI ‘bubble’ into existence. Whether a bubble exists or not remains debatable, but the conversation itself has taken on a life of its own. Every article predicting the collapse of the NASDAQ increases investor nervousness, which leads to another article about the collapse of the NASDAQ, and so the world turns ad infinitum.
Often the most effective insulation against market volatility is for the technology of the day to be ubiquitously woven into the fabric of society, such that it cannot lose value quickly. When there is a disconnect between people’s real-world experiences and the excitement felt on trading floors or in boardrooms, trouble can loom.
We can learn something in this regard from the world’s 89th most populous country: my native Sweden. In the 1990s, the Swedish government introduced a piece of legislation called Hem-PC-reformen (the Home-PC reform), which aimed to put a computer in every house. This move is often credited as the starting gun for subsequent decades of technological progress and “punching above our weight.” This was not a corporate strategic manifesto or shiny new tech tool built by a CEO; it was a countrywide policy for all of us, designed to firmly cement a new technology into our lives.
Fast-forward to today, and Stockholm has the highest number of unicorns per capita of any city in the world outside of Silicon Valley. Sweden’s AI startups are soaring. Legora, which automates tasks for lawyers, is raising capital at a $1.8 billion valuation. Einride, the electric vehicle unicorn, recently announced $100 million to scale autonomous freight. The ‘vibe-coding’ platform Lovable, which helps people build apps with AI, is one of the fastest-growing businesses in the world. And last month, the enterprise technology company Workday acquired our own business, Sana, for $1.1 billion.
Not bad for a country with half the population of the state of New York, tucked away by the Arctic Circle. People keep asking how a nation like ours can achieve so much. Though there’s no secret sauce, there are a few essential ingredients.
The aforementioned Home-PC reform was catalysed by winter darkness that can last 18 hours, meaning we Swedes spent hours at our computers experimenting within an early internet environment.
That digitally literate generation then built world-beating technology companies. Skype was founded in 2003 to popularize video call technology. So was King, the maker of Candy Crush. In 2005, Klarna was born. 2006, Spotify. In 2009, Mojang laid the first blocks of Minecraft.
We Swedes are very proud of these success stories. They show us what is possible on the global stage. They have also provided huge liquidity moments for our ecosystem. Skype and Mojang were bought by Microsoft, Activision by King, all at multiple billion-dollar price tags. Spotify went public in 2018, and Klarna earlier this year. Each of these success stories created another group of millionaires, many of whom feel a duty to reinvest back into Sweden’s technology and startup sectors.
This flywheel effect has made our AI sector what it is today. Our scaleups stand on the shoulders of giants, within an environment conducive to business building. There is capital available for deserving entrepreneurs, often deployed by quality investment firms like EQT, Northzone, and Creandum. It is relatively easy to start a company here, and our stock options system incentivizes building businesses. Stockholm is home to both the engineering university KTH and the business school Handelshögskolan, with many founders securing degrees from both (alongside many successful entrepreneurs who ignore university entirely). We also have very high English language proficiency rates.
The government continues to play a crucial role, too. Sweden spends a higher proportion of GDP on Research & Development (3.57%) than any other European country. Any employee in Sweden can take six months off to start a business, a scheme known as tjänstledighet. And to mirror that successful PC Home Reform policy from the 90s, the Prime Minister this year supported a Swedish AI Reform scheme that makes agentic AI free for all civil servants, students, teachers, research institutions, and non-profits.
There are also aspects of our culture that help us build great companies. We are the country of Volvo and IKEA, of a Swedish design ethos known for blending function and form. Many software engineers I know here are passionate about aesthetics, meaning an app’s landing page is often treated with the same eye for detail as a Bruno Mathsson chair.
Finally, we are also a humble nation (he says while writing a piece about how great a nation we are!). Putting one’s head above the rest is typically frowned upon. Though this can have its societal drawbacks, it has helped foster a high-trust, low-ego environment in our technology. Information is freely shared between different organizations and entrepreneurs, in the knowledge that each Swedish AI success benefits all.
We still have our challenges, of course, ranging from the seemingly trivial (Scandinavian Airlines, please launch a direct flight to San Francisco) to the fundamental (we still rely on American investors for later-stage capital).
But there is no denying that the Swedish approach to technology – broad and deep acceptance – is a useful tale for the rest of the world. If we are worried about the speed at which AI companies have increased in value, and when other economic metrics will catch up to prevent a bubble, we need to weave that technology into our daily lives.