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花旗:美联储或连续降息200个点

JASON MA
2024-07-09

美国经济已经从2023年的“高歌猛进”中降温。

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美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)出席5月份的新闻发布会。图片来源:CHIP SOMODEVILLA—GETTY IMAGES

花旗投资研究(Citi Research)的分析师表示,美联储将在未来几个月内大举降息,并一直持续到明年夏天。

在上周五的一份报告中,该银行援引经济放缓的新迹象,认为美联储将从9月开始至2025年7月连续八次降息,每次降息25个基点。

该报告称,这将使基准利率降低200个基点,即从目前的5.25%-5.5%降至3.25%-3.5%,并将在2025年的剩余时间内保持这一水平。

首席美国经济学家安德鲁·霍伦霍斯特(Andrew Hollenhorst)领导的花旗分析师表示,美国经济已经从2023年的“高歌猛进”中降温,通胀在经历了一些意想不到的粘性之后重新放缓。

但他们补充说,美国供应管理协会(Institute for Supply Management)的服务业指数突然转为负值,月度就业报告显示失业率升至4.1%,这些数据都增加了经济活动急剧走弱和降息步伐加快的风险。

这些数据以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周二发表的鸽派言论表明,首次降息极有可能在9月份到来。

花旗预测:“在我们的基本假设中,经济活动的持续疲软将促使美联储在随后的七次会议中连续降息。”

该报告还指出了就业报告中的其他疲软迹象。尽管总体就业人数增长20.6万人似乎很稳健,但前几个月的数据被下调。6月份的临时服务岗位减少了4.9万个,花旗称这是“经济衰退时通常会出现裁员类型,原因是雇主开始减少最不稳定的劳动力”。

花旗称,就业数据也可能偏向上行,因此,通过单独调查得出的失业率才是更重要的指标。在这方面,花旗指出,如果失业率继续以目前的速度上升,可能在8月触发衰退指标“萨姆规则”。

相对而言,今年以来,霍伦霍斯特一直持相反观点,即使华尔街的共识已转向软着陆,但他对经济的看法仍较为悲观。

今年5月,他进一步警告称,美国经济正走向硬着陆,美联储降息不足以阻止经济硬着陆。在此之前的2月份,即使在就业报告显示就业大幅增长的情况下,他也做出了类似的预测。

霍伦霍斯特上周三在接受彭博电视台采访时指出,急剧的经济衰退可能会导致足够的政治共识,让政府增加支出以刺激经济,从而克服对巨额赤字的担忧。但他补充说,更温和的衰退可能不会达成这样的共识。

他还指出,正如美联储加息对经济放缓的影响小于预期,降息对经济的刺激作用也没有预期的那么大。此外,作为各种借贷成本基准的10年期国债收益率已经低于2年期国债收益率,进一步下行空间较小,尤其是在赤字和通胀上升增加上行压力的情况下。

霍伦霍斯特解释道:“大多数经济活动将更容易受到5年期和10年期国债收益率的影响。这实际上与隔夜政策利率无关。因此,确实存在这样的问题,降低政策利率能在多大程度上传导这种刺激效应。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

花旗投资研究(Citi Research)的分析师表示,美联储将在未来几个月内大举降息,并一直持续到明年夏天。

在上周五的一份报告中,该银行援引经济放缓的新迹象,认为美联储将从9月开始至2025年7月连续八次降息,每次降息25个基点。

该报告称,这将使基准利率降低200个基点,即从目前的5.25%-5.5%降至3.25%-3.5%,并将在2025年的剩余时间内保持这一水平。

首席美国经济学家安德鲁·霍伦霍斯特(Andrew Hollenhorst)领导的花旗分析师表示,美国经济已经从2023年的“高歌猛进”中降温,通胀在经历了一些意想不到的粘性之后重新放缓。

但他们补充说,美国供应管理协会(Institute for Supply Management)的服务业指数突然转为负值,月度就业报告显示失业率升至4.1%,这些数据都增加了经济活动急剧走弱和降息步伐加快的风险。

这些数据以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周二发表的鸽派言论表明,首次降息极有可能在9月份到来。

花旗预测:“在我们的基本假设中,经济活动的持续疲软将促使美联储在随后的七次会议中连续降息。”

该报告还指出了就业报告中的其他疲软迹象。尽管总体就业人数增长20.6万人似乎很稳健,但前几个月的数据被下调。6月份的临时服务岗位减少了4.9万个,花旗称这是“经济衰退时通常会出现裁员类型,原因是雇主开始减少最不稳定的劳动力”。

花旗称,就业数据也可能偏向上行,因此,通过单独调查得出的失业率才是更重要的指标。在这方面,花旗指出,如果失业率继续以目前的速度上升,可能在8月触发衰退指标“萨姆规则”。

相对而言,今年以来,霍伦霍斯特一直持相反观点,即使华尔街的共识已转向软着陆,但他对经济的看法仍较为悲观。

今年5月,他进一步警告称,美国经济正走向硬着陆,美联储降息不足以阻止经济硬着陆。在此之前的2月份,即使在就业报告显示就业大幅增长的情况下,他也做出了类似的预测。

霍伦霍斯特上周三在接受彭博电视台采访时指出,急剧的经济衰退可能会导致足够的政治共识,让政府增加支出以刺激经济,从而克服对巨额赤字的担忧。但他补充说,更温和的衰退可能不会达成这样的共识。

他还指出,正如美联储加息对经济放缓的影响小于预期,降息对经济的刺激作用也没有预期的那么大。此外,作为各种借贷成本基准的10年期国债收益率已经低于2年期国债收益率,进一步下行空间较小,尤其是在赤字和通胀上升增加上行压力的情况下。

霍伦霍斯特解释道:“大多数经济活动将更容易受到5年期和10年期国债收益率的影响。这实际上与隔夜政策利率无关。因此,确实存在这样的问题,降低政策利率能在多大程度上传导这种刺激效应。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

Get ready for a bonanza of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve that starts in a few months and extends all the way into next summer, according to analysts at Citi Research.

In a note on Friday, the bank cited fresh signs of a slowing economy for its view that the Fed will trim rates by 25 basis points eight times, starting in September and extending to July 2025.

That will lower the benchmark rate by a whopping 200 basis points, or from 5.25%-5.5% now to 3.25%-3.5%, where they will remain for the rest of 2025, the note said.

The economy has cooled off from its “heady” pace in 2023 with inflation resuming its slowdown after some unexpected stickiness, said Citi analysts led by chief U.S. economist Andrew Hollenhorst.

But the Institute for Supply Management’s service-sector gauge, which abruptly reversed into negative territory, and the monthly jobs report, which showed unemployment rising to 4.1%, have raised the risk of a sharper weakening of economic activity and a faster pace of rate cuts, they added.

The data along with dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday suggest the first rate cut will very likely come in September.

“A continued softening of activity will provoke cuts at each of the subsequent seven Fed meetings, in our base case,” Citi predicted.

The note also pointed to other signs of weakness in the jobs report. While the headline payroll gain of 206,000 appears solid, prior months were revised down. And June saw a decline of 49,000 temporary services jobs, with Citi calling it “the type of decline that is typically seen around recessions as employers begin reducing labor with the least strongly attached workers.”

Payroll data are also likely skewed to the upside, leaving the unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate survey, as the more important metric, it said. And on that front, Citi pointed to the “Sahm Rule” recession indicator and said it could be triggered in August if unemployment continues to rise at its current pace.

Hollenhorst has been a relative contrarian this year by maintaining a dimmer view on the economy, even as the Wall Street consensus shifted to a soft landing.

In May, he doubled down on his warning that the U.S. is headed for a hard landing and that Fed rate cuts wouldn’t be enough to prevent it. That followed a similar forecast in February, even amid blowout jobs reports.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV on Wednesday, Hollenhorst noted that a sharp recession would likely produce enough political consensus for more government spending to stimulate the economy, overcoming concerns about the massive deficit. But a more mild recession may not result in such a consensus, he added.

He also pointed out that just as Fed rate hikes slowed the economy less than anticipated, rate cuts have not stimulate as much. In addition, 10-year bond yields, which serve as benchmarks for a wide range of borrowing costs, are already below 2-year yields, leaving less room for further downside, especially as rising deficits and inflation add upward pressure.

“Most economic activity is going to be more responsive to a 5-year yield, the 10-year yield. It’s not really about the overnight policy rate,” Hollenhorst explained. “So there really are questions about how much can you transmit that stimulative effect of lower policy rates.”

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