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美国消费者放弃了为美国梦存钱,通胀是罪魁祸首

JASON MA
2024-05-23

这种积极的消费,并不能反映消费者内心不为人所知的信心。

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“这种积极的消费,并不能反映消费者内心不为人所知的信心。”图片来源:GETTY IMAGES

一位经济学家解释了从最近的数据中出现的一种自相矛盾的现象。数据显示虽然消费者感到悲观,但消费依旧稳健。

密歇根大学(University of Michigan)消费者信心调查负责人乔安妮·许近日对美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)表示,她认为美国人已经放弃了存钱计划,因为他们看到自己的财务目标更难实现,相反他们选择了消费。

她解释说:“这种积极的消费,并不能反映消费者内心不为人所知的信心。相反,我的解释是,消费者看到面对当前的高物价和高利率,我们经常谈论的关于美国梦的许多远大目标,例如买房、上大学、支付孩子的大学学费、享受舒适的退休生活等,正变得越来越遥不可及。”

因此,许表示,消费者已经“放弃了”为这些目标存钱,而且依旧强劲的就业市场让他们现在有能力进行消费。

密歇根大学的最新调查结果显示,美国消费者的信心指数从4月的77.2下降到5月的67.4,为六个月最低,美国人提到的原因包括顽固的高通胀和高利率,以及对失业率升高的担忧。

在这份报告几天后发布的4月份消费物价指数显示,经过连续三个月出人意料的高物价之后,通胀有所回落。服务消费者的公司已经警告,通胀和高利率正在对低收入消费者产生特别明显的影响。

通胀确实从2022年中期四十年最高的9%,大幅下降到上个月的3.4%。但这意味着物价上涨速度放缓,而不是物价恢复到疫情之前的水平,而且过去几年高物价累积造成的冲击,依旧在影响消费者的信心。

与此同时,衡量消费者需求的指数保持稳定。今年第一季度,消费者需求持续推动GDP增长。尽管零售销售低迷,但分析师认为继续消费依旧是整体趋势。

许警告,迄今为止,消费者预期强劲的就业市场将持续下去,这让他们有足够的信心进行消费,但最近的数据显示就业市场正在降温。

她补充道:“这可能是即将出现消费疲软的早期信号。但到目前为止,稳定的收入支撑着消费者支出。”

但劳动力市场在今年早些时候大幅增长之后,也表现出一些降温的迹象。美国劳工部4月的就业市场报告远低于预期,失业率从3月的3.8%升高到3.9%。

就业市场继续降温也可能帮助促使美联储开始降息,让消费者有理由不再那么悲观。(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

一位经济学家解释了从最近的数据中出现的一种自相矛盾的现象。数据显示虽然消费者感到悲观,但消费依旧稳健。

密歇根大学(University of Michigan)消费者信心调查负责人乔安妮·许近日对美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)表示,她认为美国人已经放弃了存钱计划,因为他们看到自己的财务目标更难实现,相反他们选择了消费。

她解释说:“这种积极的消费,并不能反映消费者内心不为人所知的信心。相反,我的解释是,消费者看到面对当前的高物价和高利率,我们经常谈论的关于美国梦的许多远大目标,例如买房、上大学、支付孩子的大学学费、享受舒适的退休生活等,正变得越来越遥不可及。”

因此,许表示,消费者已经“放弃了”为这些目标存钱,而且依旧强劲的就业市场让他们现在有能力进行消费。

密歇根大学的最新调查结果显示,美国消费者的信心指数从4月的77.2下降到5月的67.4,为六个月最低,美国人提到的原因包括顽固的高通胀和高利率,以及对失业率升高的担忧。

在这份报告几天后发布的4月份消费物价指数显示,经过连续三个月出人意料的高物价之后,通胀有所回落。服务消费者的公司已经警告,通胀和高利率正在对低收入消费者产生特别明显的影响。

通胀确实从2022年中期四十年最高的9%,大幅下降到上个月的3.4%。但这意味着物价上涨速度放缓,而不是物价恢复到疫情之前的水平,而且过去几年高物价累积造成的冲击,依旧在影响消费者的信心。

与此同时,衡量消费者需求的指数保持稳定。今年第一季度,消费者需求持续推动GDP增长。尽管零售销售低迷,但分析师认为继续消费依旧是整体趋势。

许警告,迄今为止,消费者预期强劲的就业市场将持续下去,这让他们有足够的信心进行消费,但最近的数据显示就业市场正在降温。

她补充道:“这可能是即将出现消费疲软的早期信号。但到目前为止,稳定的收入支撑着消费者支出。”

但劳动力市场在今年早些时候大幅增长之后,也表现出一些降温的迹象。美国劳工部4月的就业市场报告远低于预期,失业率从3月的3.8%升高到3.9%。

就业市场继续降温也可能帮助促使美联储开始降息,让消费者有理由不再那么悲观。(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

An economist offered an explanation for a paradox that has emerged in recent data showing that spending has remained robust even as consumers report feeling pessimistic.

Joanne Hsu, who is the director of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, told CNBC on Friday that she thinks Americans have abandoned plans to save money as they see their financial goals look less attainable and are spending money instead.

“This positive spending is not a reflection of some sort of internalized secret sense of confidence that consumers have,” he explained. “And instead my interpretation is that consumers see that a lot of aspirational goals that we talk about as part of the American Dream—homeownership, paying for college, paying for college for your kids, having a comfortable retirement—with high prices and high interest rates right now, those aspirational goals just feel increasingly out of reach.”

And as a result, consumers have “given up” on saving for those goals, Hsu added, noting that the still-strong labor market allows them to spend now.

The latest reading of the University of Michigan’s survey showed sentiment plunged to a six-month low of 67.4 in May from a final reading of 77.2 in April as Americans cited stubbornly high inflation and interest rates, as well as fears that unemployment could rise.

While that report was followed days later by the April consumer price index that showed inflation cooled, it followed three straight months of unexpectedly high prices. Consumer-facing companies have sounded the alarm on the impact that inflation and high rates are having, especially on lower-income shoppers.

To be sure, inflation has come down sharply from the four-decade-high 9% rate in mid 2022 to 3.4% last month. But that means prices are going up less quickly rather than returning to pre-pandemic levels, and the cumulative sticker shock over the last few years still weighs on sentiment.

Meanwhile, gauges for consumer demand have held up. In the first quarter, it continued to drive GDP growth. And despite a weak retail sales report, analysts have noted the overall trend points to continued spending.

For now, consumers expect the strong labor market to persist, giving them enough confidence to spend, but the latest data show some softening, Hsu warned.

“That’s possibly an early sign of oncoming weakness for consumers. But as of now, strong incomes are supporting consumer spending,” she added.

But the labor market has also hinted at some cooling off after blockbuster gains earlier this year. The Labor Department’s April jobs report came in well below expectations, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% from 3.8% in March.

Further cooling in the job market could also help nudge the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates, giving consumers a reason to be slightly less dour.

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