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美国经济增长远超预期,上季度GDP飙升了5.2%

美国经济增长远超预期,上季度GDP飙升了5.2%

PAUL WISEMAN, THE ASSOCIATED PRESS AND WILL DANIEL 2023-12-04
政府此前估计,上一季度的经济年增长率为4.9%。

美国政府周三公布的数据显示,尽管利率上升,但美国消费者的支出足以推动经济在7月至9月期间以5.2%的年增长率快速增长,这一数据高于此前的预期。

政府此前估计,上一季度的经济年增长率为4.9%。

周三对第三季度经济增长的第二次估计证实,美国经济较4-6月2.1%的增速大幅加速。报告显示,美国国内生产总值——商品和服务的总产出——以近两年来最快的季度速度增长。

作为经济命脉的消费者支出在7月至9月期间的年增长率为3.6%,虽然仍然健康,但与之前预计的4%相比有所下降。此外,企业因预期未来销售增长而增加库存,也对经济起到了提振作用。推动第三季度经济增长的还有联邦、州和地方各级政府支出和投资的增加。

瑞杰金融公司(Raymond James)首席经济学家欧亨尼奥·阿莱曼(Eugenio Aleman)在一份报告中称:"今年第三季度对实际国内生产总值的修正显示了美联储的金发女孩经济情景:实际经济增长强劲,物价压力减轻。”也许这就是最近数位美联储发言人相对鸽派的原因,这可能会巩固市场对美联储本轮加息周期结束的信念。“这对经济和市场来说都是好消息。”

尽管美联储自2022年3月以来已经11次上调基准利率,以应对40年来最严重的通货膨胀,但事实证明,美国经济作为全球最大的经济体仍具有韧性。加息极大地增加了消费者和企业的借贷成本。但这也有助于缓解通胀压力:上个月消费者价格较12个月前上涨3.2%,较2022年6月同比9.1%的通胀率有明显改善。

与过去两年的火热相比,美国就业市场正在降温。但从历史标准来看,它仍然是健康的:今年,雇主平均每月新增23.9万个工作岗位。失业率已连续21个月低于4%,这是自20世纪60年代以来最长的一次。

通胀放缓和就业反弹相结合,使人们抱有美联储能够实现所谓的软着陆(加息幅度足以给经济降温和抑制物价上涨,而不会使经济陷入衰退)的希望。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

美国政府周三公布的数据显示,尽管利率上升,但美国消费者的支出足以推动经济在7月至9月期间以5.2%的年增长率快速增长,这一数据高于此前的预期。

政府此前估计,上一季度的经济年增长率为4.9%。

周三对第三季度经济增长的第二次估计证实,美国经济较4-6月2.1%的增速大幅加速。报告显示,美国国内生产总值——商品和服务的总产出——以近两年来最快的季度速度增长。

作为经济命脉的消费者支出在7月至9月期间的年增长率为3.6%,虽然仍然健康,但与之前预计的4%相比有所下降。此外,企业因预期未来销售增长而增加库存,也对经济起到了提振作用。推动第三季度经济增长的还有联邦、州和地方各级政府支出和投资的增加。

瑞杰金融公司(Raymond James)首席经济学家欧亨尼奥·阿莱曼(Eugenio Aleman)在一份报告中称:"今年第三季度对实际国内生产总值的修正显示了美联储的金发女孩经济情景:实际经济增长强劲,物价压力减轻。”也许这就是最近数位美联储发言人相对鸽派的原因,这可能会巩固市场对美联储本轮加息周期结束的信念。“这对经济和市场来说都是好消息。”

尽管美联储自2022年3月以来已经11次上调基准利率,以应对40年来最严重的通货膨胀,但事实证明,美国经济作为全球最大的经济体仍具有韧性。加息极大地增加了消费者和企业的借贷成本。但这也有助于缓解通胀压力:上个月消费者价格较12个月前上涨3.2%,较2022年6月同比9.1%的通胀率有明显改善。

与过去两年的火热相比,美国就业市场正在降温。但从历史标准来看,它仍然是健康的:今年,雇主平均每月新增23.9万个工作岗位。失业率已连续21个月低于4%,这是自20世纪60年代以来最长的一次。

通胀放缓和就业反弹相结合,使人们抱有美联储能够实现所谓的软着陆(加息幅度足以给经济降温和抑制物价上涨,而不会使经济陷入衰退)的希望。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

Shrugging off higher interest rates, America’s consumers spent enough to help drive the economy to a brisk 5.2% annual pace from July through September, the government reported Wednesday in an upgrade from its previous estimate.

The government had previously estimated that the economy grew at a 4.9% annual rate last quarter.

Wednesday’s second estimate of growth for the July-September quarter confirmed that the economy sharply accelerated from its 2.1% rate from April through June. It showed that the U.S. gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services — grew at its fastest quarterly rate in nearly two years.

Consumer spending, the lifeblood of the economy, rose at a 3.6% annual rate from July through September — still healthy but a downgrade from the previous estimate of 4%. The economy also received a lift from companies building inventories in anticipation of future sales. Also driving the third quarter growth was an uptick in spending and investment by governments at all levels, federal, state and local.

“The revision to Real GDP during the third quarter of the year showed a goldilocks scenario for the Federal Reserve (Fed) of stronger real economic growth with reduced pricing pressures,” Raymond James Chief Economist Eugenio Aleman said in a note. ” Perhaps this was the reason why several Fed speakers have been relatively dovish lately and will probably cement the market’s conviction that the Fed is done increasing interest rates this cycle. “This is good news for the economy and for the markets.”

The U.S. economy, the world’s largest, has proved resilient even as the Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate 11 times since March 2022 to fight the worst bout of inflation in four decades. Those higher interest rates have significantly increased consumer and business borrowing costs. But they have also helped ease inflationary pressures: Consumer prices rose 3.2% last month from 12 months earlier, a marked improvement from the 9.1% year-over-year inflation recorded in June 2022.

The U.S. job market is cooling from the red-hot levels of the past two years. But it’s still healthy by historical standards: Employers are adding an average of 239,000 jobs a month this year. And the unemployment rate has come in below 4% for 21 straight months, the longest such streak since the 1960s.

The combination of easing inflation and resilient hiring has raised hopes the Fed can manage a so-called soft landing — raising rates just enough to cool the economy and tame price increases without tipping the economy into recession.

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