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顶级经济学家警告:美国经济出现了“喉咙痛”

WILL DANIEL
2023-04-10

情况在好转之前可能会进一步恶化。

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2023年3月28日,纽约证券交易所交易大厅里的交易员。图片来源:PHOTO BY SPENCER PLATT/GETTY IMAGES

尽管亿万富翁投资者、华尔街分析师、甚至前美联储官员一年多来一直预测美国经济会陷入衰退,但事实证明,美国经济具有令人难以置信的弹性。失业率保持在3.6%的历史低点附近,亚特兰大联邦储备银行(Atlanta Fed)估计第一季度GDP增长1.5%。但安永-博智隆(EY-Parthenon)首席经济学家格雷戈里•达科(Gregory Daco)警告称,近期银行业危机之后,一系列负面因素结合在一起将在未来几个月“拖累”经济。

“经济状况不佳。这不是普通流感,而是喉咙痛。”他在上周三的一份研究报告中写道。他提到了顽固的通货膨胀、高利率以及企业和消费者可获得的贷款减少,并补充说,“在情况好转之前可能会进一步恶化”,安永-博智隆继续预测今年年中美国将出现经济衰退。

达科预测经济衰退的关键因素是美国消费状况不佳。过去一年里,即使面对四十年来最高的通货膨胀率和大举加息,美国人的消费依旧强劲,提振了美国经济。这一点至关重要,因为仅消费支出一项就占了美国GDP的近70%。但达科表示,最近几周的消费“明显降温”,他相信这种情况将持续全年。

美国2月份零售销售额环比下降0.4%,显示消费者感受到了价格高企带来的压力。在疫情期间作为零售商支柱的好市多(Costco)上周三公布,其同店销售额三年多来首次出现下降。美国3月份同店销售额下降1.5%,而电子商务销售额下降12.7%。

达科接着警告说,过去几年里支撑美国经济的紧张的劳动力市场也将出现破裂。他写道:“我们与企业高管的谈话表明,许多行业的招聘力度都明显缩减。企业投资活动正在疲软。”他指出,最新的ISM制造业指数显示,该行业的新订单、就业和积压订单都在收缩。

达科说,他认为在夏末,当美联储在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开年度央行研讨会时,“美国经济或已陷入衰退”,而经济衰退造成的失业,甚至“潜在的不利金融市场影响”将导致央行官员降息。

他写道:“正如我之前强调的那样,尽管我们没有看到广泛经济失衡的证据,但衰退往往是非线性事件。”他认为,经济低迷可能会以缓慢而不可预测地方式展开。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

尽管亿万富翁投资者、华尔街分析师、甚至前美联储官员一年多来一直预测美国经济会陷入衰退,但事实证明,美国经济具有令人难以置信的弹性。失业率保持在3.6%的历史低点附近,亚特兰大联邦储备银行(Atlanta Fed)估计第一季度GDP增长1.5%。但安永-博智隆(EY-Parthenon)首席经济学家格雷戈里•达科(Gregory Daco)警告称,近期银行业危机之后,一系列负面因素结合在一起将在未来几个月“拖累”经济。

“经济状况不佳。这不是普通流感,而是喉咙痛。”他在上周三的一份研究报告中写道。他提到了顽固的通货膨胀、高利率以及企业和消费者可获得的贷款减少,并补充说,“在情况好转之前可能会进一步恶化”,安永-博智隆继续预测今年年中美国将出现经济衰退。

达科预测经济衰退的关键因素是美国消费状况不佳。过去一年里,即使面对四十年来最高的通货膨胀率和大举加息,美国人的消费依旧强劲,提振了美国经济。这一点至关重要,因为仅消费支出一项就占了美国GDP的近70%。但达科表示,最近几周的消费“明显降温”,他相信这种情况将持续全年。

美国2月份零售销售额环比下降0.4%,显示消费者感受到了价格高企带来的压力。在疫情期间作为零售商支柱的好市多(Costco)上周三公布,其同店销售额三年多来首次出现下降。美国3月份同店销售额下降1.5%,而电子商务销售额下降12.7%。

达科接着警告说,过去几年里支撑美国经济的紧张的劳动力市场也将出现破裂。他写道:“我们与企业高管的谈话表明,许多行业的招聘力度都明显缩减。企业投资活动正在疲软。”他指出,最新的ISM制造业指数显示,该行业的新订单、就业和积压订单都在收缩。

达科说,他认为在夏末,当美联储在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开年度央行研讨会时,“美国经济或已陷入衰退”,而经济衰退造成的失业,甚至“潜在的不利金融市场影响”将导致央行官员降息。

他写道:“正如我之前强调的那样,尽管我们没有看到广泛经济失衡的证据,但衰退往往是非线性事件。”他认为,经济低迷可能会以缓慢而不可预测地方式展开。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

Despite consistent recession predictions from billionaire investors, Wall Street analysts, and even former Federal Reserve officials for over a year now, the U.S. economy has proved to be incredibly resilient. The unemployment rate remains near record lows at 3.6%, and the Atlanta Fed estimates GDP grew 1.5% in the first quarter. But Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, warned this week that a combination of factors in the wake of the recent banking crisis will “weigh on” the economy in the coming months.

“The economy is unwell. It’s not the flu, but it is a throat ache,” he wrote in a Wednesday research note. Citing stubborn inflation, high interest rates, and a reduction in the availability of loans for businesses and consumers, he added that “it could get worse before it gets better” and his firm continues to project a midyear recession.

The key to Daco’s recession forecast is the ailing American consumer. Even in the face of four-decade-high inflation and rapid interest rate hikes, Americans have buoyed the economy with their spending over the past year. That’s critical, because spending alone represents nearly 70% of U.S. gross domestic product. But there’s been “significant cooling” in spending over recent weeks, Daco said, and he believes that will continue throughout the year.

Retail sales slowed 0.4% month over month in February in a sign consumers are feeling the pinch of high prices. And Costco, which was a pillar of strength among retailers throughout the pandemic, revealed its first same-store sales decrease in over three years Wednesday. U.S. same-store sales dropped 1.5% in March, while e-commerce sales were down 12.7%.

Daco went on to warn that the historically tight labor market that has helped buoy the U.S. economy over the past few years may be cracking as well. “Our conversations with business executives indicate that hiring efforts have been scaled back notably across numerous sectors,” he wrote. And “business investment activity is softening,” he added, pointing to the latest ISM manufacturing survey index, which showed new orders, employment, and backlogs all contracting in the sector.

Daco said he believes that by late summer, when the Federal Reserve meets for its annual central bank symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyo., “the economy will already be in a recession,” and the job losses and even “potential adverse financial market ramifications” from that recession will lead central bankers to cut rates.

“As I’ve stressed before, even though we do not see evidence of broad-based economic imbalances, recessions are often non-linear psychological events,” he wrote, arguing economic downturns can play out slowly and unpredictably.

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