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2023年值得投资的11只抗衰退股票

2023年值得投资的11只抗衰退股票

Anne Sraders, Scott DeCarlo 2022-12-03
它们共同拥有的几项超能力,能帮助它们平稳度过来年。

在选择股票时,要寻找那些产品和服务即使在经济困难时期也能够畅销的公司。图片来源:PHOTOGRAPH BY HANNAH WHITAKER

如果说2021年的投资主题是新冠疫情之后的反弹,而2022年的主题是应对通胀,那么应该把2023年看作是投资者为经济低迷全力以赴的一年。瑞万通博(Vontobel)的高质量增长板块(Quality Growth Boutique)的投资组合经理拉米兹·切拉特说:“诚然,我们陷入经济衰退的可能性增加了。”事实上,在世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)最近进行的一项调查中,高达98%的受访首席执行官表示,他们正在为2023年美国陷入经济衰退做准备。

最终,通货膨胀加剧了人们对经济衰退的担忧,还促使美联储(Federal Reserve)持续加息,给企业利润带来威胁,并在过去一年中推动股市进入熊市。人们看到了通胀最终见顶的一线希望,但2023年的格言仍然是谨慎。

尽管如此,普通投资者可能只感受到了痛苦,投资专业人士却发现了机会。帕纳瑟斯投资公司(Parnassus Investments)的研究主管兼投资组合经理洛里·基思称,2023年的投资“真正关乎质量”——换句话说,我们投资的公司“不仅能够经受住更严重、更持久的衰退(如果这种情况发生的话),而且当最终看到美联储加息策略逆转时,还可以主动出击”。

对业余投资者和专业投资者而言,发现这些优质股票可能需要改变心态。詹森投资管理公司(Jensen Investment Management)的董事总经理兼投资组合经理埃里克·索恩斯坦说,他在评估股票时一直在调整自己的思路,更加关注利润率而非收入增长。鉴于俄乌冲突和持续的高通胀,以及未来可能会有更多轮加息,“我认为现在的环境不容易实现顶线增长,(而且)这种情况将持续一段时间。”他表示。

在这一背景下,《财富》杂志邀请五位顶级投资组合经理,为2023年挑选最佳投资股票。这些股票的范围很广,从防御性大宗商品到押注新兴市场。但这里列出的许多公司拥有几项共同的超能力,这些能力应该能够帮助它们平稳度过来年,包括产生大量经常性收入的商业模式、强劲的资产负债表,以及定价权,这应该有助于它们将不断上升的成本转嫁给客户,而不会严重影响其利润。在这些公司中,科技公司并不是很多:当利率高企时,科技公司的短期前景往往会受到影响。尽管如此,在投资者深呼吸,为新的一年做准备,并等待最终反弹之际,这些公司应该会提供稳定的增长和利润率。

“粘性”服务,稳定收益

如果2023年出现经济衰退,基金经理们认为,那些具有“粘性”产品和服务的企业(这些产品往往可以保持客户忠诚度),会表现良好,并为投资者带来稳定的收入来源。

Republic Services公司是基思多年来的最爱,该公司是美国第二大废品管理公司。基思认为,鉴于其市场份额,在艰难时期,该公司“能够提供相应程度的防御能力”。她还指出,该公司有“非常可观的经常性、年金型收入”:事实上,该公司约80%的收入来自这种经常性来源:为商业和住宅客户提供“关键业务”服务。Republic Services公司的客户保留率接近95%,其合同(通常长达数年)包括根据通胀自动进行价格调整条款,允许公司在成本上升时提高价格。基思还称赞了该公司的资本配置战略,并强调了收购案例,比如它最近收购了另一家废品管理公司US Ecology。预计该股未来12个月的市盈率约为28倍,股价不见得便宜。但分析人士预计,Republic Services公司在2023年的收益增长将超过10%,这在增长放缓的环境下是相当不错的增幅。基思指出,该公司在短期经济衰退中应该更有抵御能力,因为它的许多合同期限较长,无法修改。

奥的斯国际集团(Otis Worldwide)是一家电梯设备制造商,虽然它“并不属于非常光鲜亮丽的行业”,但在基思看来,“就可以持续产生利润和现金流来说,它是一家非常优秀的企业”。奥的斯国际集团是全球电梯行业的龙头企业,2021年的收入超过140亿美元,其业务分为新设备销售和现有电梯的服务和升级。基思指出,商业楼宇中有很多老化的电梯系统需要更换,所以“摆在我们面前的是相当不错的更换周期。”与此同时,服务和维护为奥的斯国际集团提供了经常性收入,使其收益更加可预测。虽然该公司受到大宗商品成本和美元走强带来的不利影响,但基思相信,该公司能够实现收益稳步增长。奥的斯国际集团派发的股息率接近1.5%,今年迄今为止已经回购了价值7亿美元的股票。虽然预计2023年奥的斯国际集团的收入不会大幅增长,但华尔街预计奥的斯国际集团明年的每股收益将大幅增长12%。该公司股票的预期市盈率约为24倍,基思认为投资者可以在这个“非常宽广的护城河”上搭上顺风船,但愿如此。

追求稳定并不需要牺牲增长。詹森投资管理公司的索恩斯坦仍然认为,微软(Microsoft)能够满足投资者的这两种要求。微软也被列入了我们的2022年应该买入股票的名单。索恩斯坦指出:“因为它以商业为中心,对他们来说,与其说是收入增长,不如说是商业客户持续需要他们的服务。除非大规模出现业务问题,否则微软的服务仍将有相当强劲的需求。”这包括这家科技巨头的企业办公和生产力软件,以及其强大的云计算部门;他指出,这些服务“实际上是在让各大公司提高效率,可以在经济衰退时期帮助各大公司”。微软2022财年于今年6月结束,营收略低于2,000亿美元。分析师预计,在截至2023年6月的财年,微软营收将增长约7%,下一财年将增长14%。这虽然低于该公司过去五年15%左右的平均增长率,但在经济低迷的背景下,这仍然是一个不错的增速。微软的预期市盈率约为25倍,也远没有一些成长型科技同行那么贵。

帕纳瑟斯投资公司的基思认为,西斯科公司(Sysco)也属于“抗衰退的范畴”。西斯科公司是世界上最大的食品分销商,为餐厅、酒店和医院等提供服务。基思指出,该公司得益于在美国拥有“非常可观的市场份额”,在该细分领域约占17%。行业领导地位在很多方面都对公司大有裨益:“西斯科公司在技术和员工方面进行了投资,并且有能力为客户提供高效服务。”基思说,这有助于他们获得更多的市场份额。她还指出,该公司过往都能够安然度过经济衰退期,并指出该公司还度过了2008年的金融危机:“有充分的理由表明,该公司可以经受住再一轮的经济低迷。”尽管经济衰退通常会促使消费者减少在餐馆的消费,但基思指出,由于人口结构和消费习惯的变化,如果2023年出现经济衰退,消费者可能就会继续外出就餐。如果明年通胀确实开始明显降温,西斯科公司也会因为降低燃料和其他开支而受益。分析师预计,在截至2023年6月的财年中,该公司每股收益将大幅增长53%;该股未来12个月的市盈率为20倍,属于合理估值区间,股息率为2.3%。

典型的抗衰退期股票

在经济困难时期,回归你熟悉的领域能够获得安慰,也是一种谨慎的选择。一些基金经理建议这样做,他们推荐那些在经济衰退和经济放缓环境下表现良好的行业股票。

折扣零售巨头TJX是埃里克·索恩斯坦长期以来的最爱,TJX旗下的门店包括T.J. Maxx和Marshalls。TJX属于索恩斯坦所说的“寻宝”商店的范畴,精打细算的顾客会在这些商店里寻找特价商品。他指出:“在经济衰退时期,消费者更倾向于购买廉价商品。”如果2023年像一些首席执行官担心的那样低迷,这对TJX来说应该就是一件好事情。该公司从全价百货商店购买一些无法出售的库存。索恩斯坦认为,如果出现经济衰退,TJX应该就可以获得更多的过剩库存进行打折销售。晨星公司(Morningstar)的分析师扎因·阿克巴里也持同样观点,他在最近的一份报告中写道:“在经济前景不稳定的情况下,消费者更看重价值,我们认为TJX处于有利地位。”华尔街预计TJX明年的每股收益将增长约11%,到2024年将增长近一倍。该股的预期市盈率为23倍,股息率为1.5%。

对于那些担心2023年可能出现经济衰退的投资者来说,索恩斯坦推荐久经考验的宝洁公司(Procter & Gamble),他认为这是“在经济衰退期间应该相当畅销的典型必需消费品”。他指出,这家消费品巨头的业务重点是“个人护理、美容、家庭护理、织物护理和婴儿护理”。“这些产品的消费需求是不会中断的。”索恩斯坦说,即使经济不景气和通胀居高不下促使消费者在货架上寻找更便宜的品牌,宝洁公司的产品系列中仍然有一些低价品牌。

作为标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)的大公司(其市值远远超过3,000亿美元),宝洁公司受到了市场整体抛售的打击;今年以来,该公司股价下跌了13%以上,基准指数也是如此。但索恩斯坦表示,该公司仍然“表现出强劲、有弹性、有机的收入增长”;在他看来,这是一大有利因素,能够抵消汇率问题对宝洁业务造成的冲击,因为美元相对于全球其他货币大幅升值。预计宝洁公司明年的利润和收入增长都将放缓,但索恩斯坦强调,宝洁公司2.5%的股息率加强了其对投资者的吸引力。他说,如果该公司实现了预期的增长,那么“随着其他一切发展都在放缓,该公司将更有机会在投资者心目中脱颖而出。”

联博有限公司(AllianceBernstein)负责美国集中增长的首席投资官詹姆斯·蒂尔尼看好硕腾公司(Zoetis),该公司为宠物和牲畜生产药品和疫苗。蒂尔尼指出:“动物保健相关产品始终是你需要购买的产品,不管经济是否陷入衰退。”该股遇到了一些阻力,包括汇率问题,因为其相当大的一部分业务在美国以外;供给限制;以及在诊所工作的兽医短缺。这些因素促使硕腾公司下调了今年的销售预期,其股价在2022年下跌了近40%。但蒂尔尼称,公司的资产负债表“坚如磐石”,并相信兽医短缺等问题将在明年得到改善。硕腾公司的首席执行官克里斯汀·派克在最近的财报电话会议上表示,她很乐观,该公司拥有药品供应渠道、市场主导地位和财务实力,将在动物保健市场“继续领跑”。硕腾公司预计今年将实现近80亿美元的营收,分析师预计该公司2023年的利润增长将超过8%,而收入增长将超过6%。

不管经济是否陷入衰退,如果你的车需要修理,你就得去修理它。这就是为什么帕纳瑟斯投资公司的基思喜欢汽车零部件零售商O’Reilly Automotive公司。基思指出,在经济困难时期,“司机们会继续驾驶旧车,进行更多的维修,而不是购买新车”,这一趋势应该会让O’Reilly Automotive公司受益。她对该公司强劲的现金流和资产负债表表示赞赏,并表示该公司在经济衰退时通常表现良好。在第三季度财报表现强劲的背景下,华尔街分析师上调了O’Reilly Automotive公司的目标股价。在第三季度财报中,该公司表现优于预期,并上调了全年收益预期。华尔街估计,该公司明年的每股收益将增长12%以上,远快于他们对该公司2022年6%的预期。与此同时,O’Reilly Automotive公司股票在未来一年的预期市盈率为23倍左右。

押注新兴市场

瑞万通博的拉米兹·切拉特表示,投资者可能会惊讶地发现,一些新兴市场在2023年将“相当有弹性”,特别是印度和巴西,在进入明年后,这两个国家的经济表现可能超过美国等市场,同时还有降息的空间。切拉特说,明年,在这些国家和其他国家,诸如此类的因素可能会让新兴市场某些领域的增长看起来比发达国家市场的增长更有吸引力。

出于这些原因,切拉特青睐总部位于荷兰的全球知名啤酒制造商喜力啤酒(Heineken)。切拉特表示,该公司在巴西和东南亚有着深远的影响力,随着后疫情时代这些地区加速重新开放,“将出现收入增长”。他认为,从结构上看,这些市场的情况在2023年及以后“应该会比美国更好”。切拉特指出,尽管该公司最近一个季度的收益较弱,喜力啤酒仍然保持着强大的定价能力,同时实现了高单位数的有机销量增长。分析人士估计,喜力啤酒下一个日历年的营收增幅在8%左右,每股收益增幅约为7%。到2023年,该股预期市盈率有望达到17倍(目前约为14倍),属于合理估值区间。

在印度对税收和破产法进行系统性改革之后,切拉特尤其看好印度。据估计,印度明年的GDP增速将在5%左右,虽然低于2022年的增速,但可能会超过美国和许多其他国家。切拉特认为,印度是一个抵押贷款和消费信贷方面有望实现增长的市场。这种信念反映在他对HDFC银行(HDFC Bank)的热情上,瑞万通博长期持有HDFC银行的股份,他表示,HDFC银行仍然在“抢占其核心领域的市场份额,尤其是抵押贷款领域”。随着该公司完成与印度领先的住房金融公司之一的合并,这一业务有望变得更加强大。切拉特表示,合并后将可以“通过更广泛的分支网络销售抵押贷款,并利用HDFC银行的存款优势。”分析师对此持乐观态度,他们预计截至2024年3月的财年将实现近21%的营收增长(分析师预计截至明年3月的当前财年营收将超过140亿美元),而同期每股收益可能增长约17%。HDFC银行股票未来12个月的预期市盈率约为19倍,是《财富》杂志榜单上价格较低的股票之一,对那些愿意押注新兴市场的投资者来说,这可能是一个不错的切入点。

对于那些对东南亚的消费需求有信心的人而言,联博有限公司负责全球集中增长的联席首席信息官戴夫·查克拉巴蒂推荐总部位于菲律宾的Universal Robina公司。这是一家生产零食、杯面和饮料的必需消费品公司,产品出口到印度尼西亚和越南等国家;2021年,它的收入达到24亿美元。查克拉巴蒂认为,制造业转移到中国以外带来的好处正在东南亚市场凸显;他预计,不断增长的青年人口和不断增加的收入将结合在一起,成为“品牌消费品需求的主要驱动力”。这应该都有利于Universal Robina的发展,查克拉巴蒂表示,该公司利用新冠疫情期间供应链中断降低了成本,使公司能够从后疫情时代的亚洲重新开放中获利。尽管成本上升给该公司的利润率带来了压力,但该公司最近公布的第三季度销售增长强劲,查克拉巴蒂预计该公司将通过提价来抵消通胀。分析人士预计,Universal Robina今年的盈利将会缩水,但他们预计,该公司2023年的利润增长将超过15%,而收入增长将在7%左右。与此同时,该股的价格也处于历史低位:交易价格比五年来的高点低30%,也低于同期的平均市盈率。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)的分析师认为,该股是一个“被低估的优质食品股”。这可能为投资者提供一种相对廉价的押注东南亚消费者的方式。

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专家推荐

Republic Services公司(股票代码:RSG,134美元)

奥的斯国际集团(股票代码:OTIS,78美元)

微软公司(股票代码:MSFT,241美元)

西斯科公司(股票代码:SYY,85美元)

TJX(股票代码:TJX,78美元)

宝洁公司(股票代码:PG,143美元)

硕腾公司(股票代码:ZTS,146美元)

O’Reilly Automotive公司(股票代码:ORLY,838美元)

喜力啤酒(股票代码:OTC:HEINY,45美元)

HDFC银行(股票代码:HDB,68美元)

Universal Robina公司(股票代码:PSE:URC,2美元)

股价截至2022年11月18日。

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《财富》杂志的表现如何

引用一位同事的话:哎呀。我们相信,我们2022年推选的“收益更稳定的股票”可以抵御通货膨胀。但房价和利率的上涨速度远远超过我们的预期,过去12个月,我们所选股票的跌幅中值为41%。以下是事情发生的经过。——Matt Heimer

疲软的大型科技公司

科技巨头远未达到濒临灭绝的状态。但它们在新冠疫情封城居家办公和居家购物时代实现的增长是不可持续的——事实证明,我们所选的微软、亚马逊和赛富时(Salesforce)一年前的股价估值也是不可持续的。它们分别损失了29%、49%和51%。

芯片公司遭受冲击

很少有公司能够像芯片制造商台积电(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.)那样占据行业主导地位,在截至2022年1月的五年里,该公司股价几乎增加了四倍。今年,地缘政治紧张局势和对经济衰退的担忧使其黯淡无光;其股东在过去一年中损失了32%,而标准普尔500指数仅损失了14%。

稳定增长类股票

我们投资组合中唯一表现优异的股票是必需消费品股,当经济衰退的担忧逼近时,这些股票通常表现良好。这些股票包括雀巢(Nestlé)、强生公司(Johnson & Johnson),还有薯片制造商百事公司(PepsiCo),菲多利公司(Frito-Lay)的所有者。百事可乐是我们的最佳选择,总回报率为14%。(财富中文网)

本文另一版本登载于《财富》杂志2022年12月/2023年1月刊,标题是《2023年要坚持的11只股票:看跌时期的看涨前景》(11 stocks to stick with for 2023: Bullish prospects in bearish times)。这篇文章的部分内容之前曾经于2022年10月13日在Fortune.com网上发布,标题为《现在投资哪里:2023年最好买的8只股票》(Where to invest now: The 8 best stocks to buy for 2023)。

译者:中慧言-王芳

如果说2021年的投资主题是新冠疫情之后的反弹,而2022年的主题是应对通胀,那么应该把2023年看作是投资者为经济低迷全力以赴的一年。瑞万通博(Vontobel)的高质量增长板块(Quality Growth Boutique)的投资组合经理拉米兹·切拉特说:“诚然,我们陷入经济衰退的可能性增加了。”事实上,在世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)最近进行的一项调查中,高达98%的受访首席执行官表示,他们正在为2023年美国陷入经济衰退做准备。

最终,通货膨胀加剧了人们对经济衰退的担忧,还促使美联储(Federal Reserve)持续加息,给企业利润带来威胁,并在过去一年中推动股市进入熊市。人们看到了通胀最终见顶的一线希望,但2023年的格言仍然是谨慎。

尽管如此,普通投资者可能只感受到了痛苦,投资专业人士却发现了机会。帕纳瑟斯投资公司(Parnassus Investments)的研究主管兼投资组合经理洛里·基思称,2023年的投资“真正关乎质量”——换句话说,我们投资的公司“不仅能够经受住更严重、更持久的衰退(如果这种情况发生的话),而且当最终看到美联储加息策略逆转时,还可以主动出击”。

对业余投资者和专业投资者而言,发现这些优质股票可能需要改变心态。詹森投资管理公司(Jensen Investment Management)的董事总经理兼投资组合经理埃里克·索恩斯坦说,他在评估股票时一直在调整自己的思路,更加关注利润率而非收入增长。鉴于俄乌冲突和持续的高通胀,以及未来可能会有更多轮加息,“我认为现在的环境不容易实现顶线增长,(而且)这种情况将持续一段时间。”他表示。

在这一背景下,《财富》杂志邀请五位顶级投资组合经理,为2023年挑选最佳投资股票。这些股票的范围很广,从防御性大宗商品到押注新兴市场。但这里列出的许多公司拥有几项共同的超能力,这些能力应该能够帮助它们平稳度过来年,包括产生大量经常性收入的商业模式、强劲的资产负债表,以及定价权,这应该有助于它们将不断上升的成本转嫁给客户,而不会严重影响其利润。在这些公司中,科技公司并不是很多:当利率高企时,科技公司的短期前景往往会受到影响。尽管如此,在投资者深呼吸,为新的一年做准备,并等待最终反弹之际,这些公司应该会提供稳定的增长和利润率。

“粘性”服务,稳定收益

如果2023年出现经济衰退,基金经理们认为,那些具有“粘性”产品和服务的企业(这些产品往往可以保持客户忠诚度),会表现良好,并为投资者带来稳定的收入来源。

Republic Services公司是基思多年来的最爱,该公司是美国第二大废品管理公司。基思认为,鉴于其市场份额,在艰难时期,该公司“能够提供相应程度的防御能力”。她还指出,该公司有“非常可观的经常性、年金型收入”:事实上,该公司约80%的收入来自这种经常性来源:为商业和住宅客户提供“关键业务”服务。Republic Services公司的客户保留率接近95%,其合同(通常长达数年)包括根据通胀自动进行价格调整条款,允许公司在成本上升时提高价格。基思还称赞了该公司的资本配置战略,并强调了收购案例,比如它最近收购了另一家废品管理公司US Ecology。预计该股未来12个月的市盈率约为28倍,股价不见得便宜。但分析人士预计,Republic Services公司在2023年的收益增长将超过10%,这在增长放缓的环境下是相当不错的增幅。基思指出,该公司在短期经济衰退中应该更有抵御能力,因为它的许多合同期限较长,无法修改。

奥的斯国际集团(Otis Worldwide)是一家电梯设备制造商,虽然它“并不属于非常光鲜亮丽的行业”,但在基思看来,“就可以持续产生利润和现金流来说,它是一家非常优秀的企业”。奥的斯国际集团是全球电梯行业的龙头企业,2021年的收入超过140亿美元,其业务分为新设备销售和现有电梯的服务和升级。基思指出,商业楼宇中有很多老化的电梯系统需要更换,所以“摆在我们面前的是相当不错的更换周期。”与此同时,服务和维护为奥的斯国际集团提供了经常性收入,使其收益更加可预测。虽然该公司受到大宗商品成本和美元走强带来的不利影响,但基思相信,该公司能够实现收益稳步增长。奥的斯国际集团派发的股息率接近1.5%,今年迄今为止已经回购了价值7亿美元的股票。虽然预计2023年奥的斯国际集团的收入不会大幅增长,但华尔街预计奥的斯国际集团明年的每股收益将大幅增长12%。该公司股票的预期市盈率约为24倍,基思认为投资者可以在这个“非常宽广的护城河”上搭上顺风船,但愿如此。

追求稳定并不需要牺牲增长。詹森投资管理公司的索恩斯坦仍然认为,微软(Microsoft)能够满足投资者的这两种要求。微软也被列入了我们的2022年应该买入股票的名单。索恩斯坦指出:“因为它以商业为中心,对他们来说,与其说是收入增长,不如说是商业客户持续需要他们的服务。除非大规模出现业务问题,否则微软的服务仍将有相当强劲的需求。”这包括这家科技巨头的企业办公和生产力软件,以及其强大的云计算部门;他指出,这些服务“实际上是在让各大公司提高效率,可以在经济衰退时期帮助各大公司”。微软2022财年于今年6月结束,营收略低于2,000亿美元。分析师预计,在截至2023年6月的财年,微软营收将增长约7%,下一财年将增长14%。这虽然低于该公司过去五年15%左右的平均增长率,但在经济低迷的背景下,这仍然是一个不错的增速。微软的预期市盈率约为25倍,也远没有一些成长型科技同行那么贵。

帕纳瑟斯投资公司的基思认为,西斯科公司(Sysco)也属于“抗衰退的范畴”。西斯科公司是世界上最大的食品分销商,为餐厅、酒店和医院等提供服务。基思指出,该公司得益于在美国拥有“非常可观的市场份额”,在该细分领域约占17%。行业领导地位在很多方面都对公司大有裨益:“西斯科公司在技术和员工方面进行了投资,并且有能力为客户提供高效服务。”基思说,这有助于他们获得更多的市场份额。她还指出,该公司过往都能够安然度过经济衰退期,并指出该公司还度过了2008年的金融危机:“有充分的理由表明,该公司可以经受住再一轮的经济低迷。”尽管经济衰退通常会促使消费者减少在餐馆的消费,但基思指出,由于人口结构和消费习惯的变化,如果2023年出现经济衰退,消费者可能就会继续外出就餐。如果明年通胀确实开始明显降温,西斯科公司也会因为降低燃料和其他开支而受益。分析师预计,在截至2023年6月的财年中,该公司每股收益将大幅增长53%;该股未来12个月的市盈率为20倍,属于合理估值区间,股息率为2.3%。

典型的抗衰退期股票

在经济困难时期,回归你熟悉的领域能够获得安慰,也是一种谨慎的选择。一些基金经理建议这样做,他们推荐那些在经济衰退和经济放缓环境下表现良好的行业股票。

折扣零售巨头TJX是埃里克·索恩斯坦长期以来的最爱,TJX旗下的门店包括T.J. Maxx和Marshalls。TJX属于索恩斯坦所说的“寻宝”商店的范畴,精打细算的顾客会在这些商店里寻找特价商品。他指出:“在经济衰退时期,消费者更倾向于购买廉价商品。”如果2023年像一些首席执行官担心的那样低迷,这对TJX来说应该就是一件好事情。该公司从全价百货商店购买一些无法出售的库存。索恩斯坦认为,如果出现经济衰退,TJX应该就可以获得更多的过剩库存进行打折销售。晨星公司(Morningstar)的分析师扎因·阿克巴里也持同样观点,他在最近的一份报告中写道:“在经济前景不稳定的情况下,消费者更看重价值,我们认为TJX处于有利地位。”华尔街预计TJX明年的每股收益将增长约11%,到2024年将增长近一倍。该股的预期市盈率为23倍,股息率为1.5%。

对于那些担心2023年可能出现经济衰退的投资者来说,索恩斯坦推荐久经考验的宝洁公司(Procter & Gamble),他认为这是“在经济衰退期间应该相当畅销的典型必需消费品”。他指出,这家消费品巨头的业务重点是“个人护理、美容、家庭护理、织物护理和婴儿护理”。“这些产品的消费需求是不会中断的。”索恩斯坦说,即使经济不景气和通胀居高不下促使消费者在货架上寻找更便宜的品牌,宝洁公司的产品系列中仍然有一些低价品牌。

作为标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)的大公司(其市值远远超过3,000亿美元),宝洁公司受到了市场整体抛售的打击;今年以来,该公司股价下跌了13%以上,基准指数也是如此。但索恩斯坦表示,该公司仍然“表现出强劲、有弹性、有机的收入增长”;在他看来,这是一大有利因素,能够抵消汇率问题对宝洁业务造成的冲击,因为美元相对于全球其他货币大幅升值。预计宝洁公司明年的利润和收入增长都将放缓,但索恩斯坦强调,宝洁公司2.5%的股息率加强了其对投资者的吸引力。他说,如果该公司实现了预期的增长,那么“随着其他一切发展都在放缓,该公司将更有机会在投资者心目中脱颖而出。”

联博有限公司(AllianceBernstein)负责美国集中增长的首席投资官詹姆斯·蒂尔尼看好硕腾公司(Zoetis),该公司为宠物和牲畜生产药品和疫苗。蒂尔尼指出:“动物保健相关产品始终是你需要购买的产品,不管经济是否陷入衰退。”该股遇到了一些阻力,包括汇率问题,因为其相当大的一部分业务在美国以外;供给限制;以及在诊所工作的兽医短缺。这些因素促使硕腾公司下调了今年的销售预期,其股价在2022年下跌了近40%。但蒂尔尼称,公司的资产负债表“坚如磐石”,并相信兽医短缺等问题将在明年得到改善。硕腾公司的首席执行官克里斯汀·派克在最近的财报电话会议上表示,她很乐观,该公司拥有药品供应渠道、市场主导地位和财务实力,将在动物保健市场“继续领跑”。硕腾公司预计今年将实现近80亿美元的营收,分析师预计该公司2023年的利润增长将超过8%,而收入增长将超过6%。

不管经济是否陷入衰退,如果你的车需要修理,你就得去修理它。这就是为什么帕纳瑟斯投资公司的基思喜欢汽车零部件零售商O’Reilly Automotive公司。基思指出,在经济困难时期,“司机们会继续驾驶旧车,进行更多的维修,而不是购买新车”,这一趋势应该会让O’Reilly Automotive公司受益。她对该公司强劲的现金流和资产负债表表示赞赏,并表示该公司在经济衰退时通常表现良好。在第三季度财报表现强劲的背景下,华尔街分析师上调了O’Reilly Automotive公司的目标股价。在第三季度财报中,该公司表现优于预期,并上调了全年收益预期。华尔街估计,该公司明年的每股收益将增长12%以上,远快于他们对该公司2022年6%的预期。与此同时,O’Reilly Automotive公司股票在未来一年的预期市盈率为23倍左右。

押注新兴市场

瑞万通博的拉米兹·切拉特表示,投资者可能会惊讶地发现,一些新兴市场在2023年将“相当有弹性”,特别是印度和巴西,在进入明年后,这两个国家的经济表现可能超过美国等市场,同时还有降息的空间。切拉特说,明年,在这些国家和其他国家,诸如此类的因素可能会让新兴市场某些领域的增长看起来比发达国家市场的增长更有吸引力。

出于这些原因,切拉特青睐总部位于荷兰的全球知名啤酒制造商喜力啤酒(Heineken)。切拉特表示,该公司在巴西和东南亚有着深远的影响力,随着后疫情时代这些地区加速重新开放,“将出现收入增长”。他认为,从结构上看,这些市场的情况在2023年及以后“应该会比美国更好”。切拉特指出,尽管该公司最近一个季度的收益较弱,喜力啤酒仍然保持着强大的定价能力,同时实现了高单位数的有机销量增长。分析人士估计,喜力啤酒下一个日历年的营收增幅在8%左右,每股收益增幅约为7%。到2023年,该股预期市盈率有望达到17倍(目前约为14倍),属于合理估值区间。

在印度对税收和破产法进行系统性改革之后,切拉特尤其看好印度。据估计,印度明年的GDP增速将在5%左右,虽然低于2022年的增速,但可能会超过美国和许多其他国家。切拉特认为,印度是一个抵押贷款和消费信贷方面有望实现增长的市场。这种信念反映在他对HDFC银行(HDFC Bank)的热情上,瑞万通博长期持有HDFC银行的股份,他表示,HDFC银行仍然在“抢占其核心领域的市场份额,尤其是抵押贷款领域”。随着该公司完成与印度领先的住房金融公司之一的合并,这一业务有望变得更加强大。切拉特表示,合并后将可以“通过更广泛的分支网络销售抵押贷款,并利用HDFC银行的存款优势。”分析师对此持乐观态度,他们预计截至2024年3月的财年将实现近21%的营收增长(分析师预计截至明年3月的当前财年营收将超过140亿美元),而同期每股收益可能增长约17%。HDFC银行股票未来12个月的预期市盈率约为19倍,是《财富》杂志榜单上价格较低的股票之一,对那些愿意押注新兴市场的投资者来说,这可能是一个不错的切入点。

对于那些对东南亚的消费需求有信心的人而言,联博有限公司负责全球集中增长的联席首席信息官戴夫·查克拉巴蒂推荐总部位于菲律宾的Universal Robina公司。这是一家生产零食、杯面和饮料的必需消费品公司,产品出口到印度尼西亚和越南等国家;2021年,它的收入达到24亿美元。查克拉巴蒂认为,制造业转移到中国以外带来的好处正在东南亚市场凸显;他预计,不断增长的青年人口和不断增加的收入将结合在一起,成为“品牌消费品需求的主要驱动力”。这应该都有利于Universal Robina的发展,查克拉巴蒂表示,该公司利用新冠疫情期间供应链中断降低了成本,使公司能够从后疫情时代的亚洲重新开放中获利。尽管成本上升给该公司的利润率带来了压力,但该公司最近公布的第三季度销售增长强劲,查克拉巴蒂预计该公司将通过提价来抵消通胀。分析人士预计,Universal Robina今年的盈利将会缩水,但他们预计,该公司2023年的利润增长将超过15%,而收入增长将在7%左右。与此同时,该股的价格也处于历史低位:交易价格比五年来的高点低30%,也低于同期的平均市盈率。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)的分析师认为,该股是一个“被低估的优质食品股”。这可能为投资者提供一种相对廉价的押注东南亚消费者的方式。

****

专家推荐

Republic Services公司(股票代码:RSG,134美元)

奥的斯国际集团(股票代码:OTIS,78美元)

微软公司(股票代码:MSFT,241美元)

西斯科公司(股票代码:SYY,85美元)

TJX(股票代码:TJX,78美元)

宝洁公司(股票代码:PG,143美元)

硕腾公司(股票代码:ZTS,146美元)

O’Reilly Automotive公司(股票代码:ORLY,838美元)

喜力啤酒(股票代码:OTC:HEINY,45美元)

HDFC银行(股票代码:HDB,68美元)

Universal Robina公司(股票代码:PSE:URC,2美元)

股价截至2022年11月18日。

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《财富》杂志的表现如何

引用一位同事的话:哎呀。我们相信,我们2022年推选的“收益更稳定的股票”可以抵御通货膨胀。但房价和利率的上涨速度远远超过我们的预期,过去12个月,我们所选股票的跌幅中值为41%。以下是事情发生的经过。——Matt Heimer

疲软的大型科技公司

科技巨头远未达到濒临灭绝的状态。但它们在新冠疫情封城居家办公和居家购物时代实现的增长是不可持续的——事实证明,我们所选的微软、亚马逊和赛富时(Salesforce)一年前的股价估值也是不可持续的。它们分别损失了29%、49%和51%。

芯片公司遭受冲击

很少有公司能够像芯片制造商台积电(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.)那样占据行业主导地位,在截至2022年1月的五年里,该公司股价几乎增加了四倍。今年,地缘政治紧张局势和对经济衰退的担忧使其黯淡无光;其股东在过去一年中损失了32%,而标准普尔500指数仅损失了14%。

稳定增长类股票

我们投资组合中唯一表现优异的股票是必需消费品股,当经济衰退的担忧逼近时,这些股票通常表现良好。这些股票包括雀巢(Nestlé)、强生公司(Johnson & Johnson),还有薯片制造商百事公司(PepsiCo),菲多利公司(Frito-Lay)的所有者。百事可乐是我们的最佳选择,总回报率为14%。(财富中文网)

本文另一版本登载于《财富》杂志2022年12月/2023年1月刊,标题是《2023年要坚持的11只股票:看跌时期的看涨前景》(11 stocks to stick with for 2023: Bullish prospects in bearish times)。这篇文章的部分内容之前曾经于2022年10月13日在Fortune.com网上发布,标题为《现在投资哪里:2023年最好买的8只股票》(Where to invest now: The 8 best stocks to buy for 2023)。

译者:中慧言-王芳

If the investment theme for 2021 was the post-COVID rebound, and the theme for 2022 was bracing for inflation, think of 2023 as the year investors should buckle up for a downturn. “Certainly the odds have increased that we’re heading into a recession,” says Ramiz Chelat, a portfolio manager for Vontobel’s Quality Growth Boutique. In fact, a whopping 98% of CEOs polled in a recent survey by the Conference Board said they were preparing for a recession in the U.S. in the next year.

The engine driving those recession fears, ultimately, is inflation—which in turn has launched the Federal Reserve on a campaign of interest rate hikes that has threatened corporate profits and helped drive the stock markets into bear territory over the past year. There are glimmers of hope that inflation may finally be peaking, but the watchword for 2023 remains caution.

Still, where regular investors may just see pain, investing pros see opportunity. Investing in 2023 is “really about quality,” says Lori Keith, director of research and portfolio manager at Parnassus Investments—in other words, owning companies “that not only can weather a deeper, more prolonged recession, should we see that, but also [are] able to participate when we do finally see a reversal” of the Fed’s rising-rate strategy.

Spotting those quality stocks may involve a change in mindset, for amateurs and pros alike. Eric Schoenstein, a managing director and portfolio manager at Jensen Investment Management, says he’s been tweaking his thinking when evaluating stocks, focusing more on profit margins than revenue growth. With war in Ukraine and persistently high inflation, and likely more rate hikes ahead, “I don’t think this is an environment where top-line growth is as easy to achieve, [and] that’s going to be with us for a period of time,” he says.

With that backdrop in mind, Fortune asked five top portfolio managers for their best stock picks for 2023. The stocks run the gamut from defensive staples to bets on emerging markets. But many of the companies listed here have a few superpowers in common that should help them navigate the coming year, including business models that generate lots of recurring revenue; strong balance sheets; and pricing power that should help them pass rising costs through to customers without severely denting their profits. You won’t find as many tech companies in the bunch: Their near-term prospects tend to suffer when interest rates are high. Still, the companies here should provide stable growth and profit margins as investors prepare for—deep breath—a new year, and wait for an eventual rebound.

“Sticky” services, steady earnings

If a recession is in the cards for 2023, money managers believe that businesses with “sticky” products and services—offerings that tend to generate and retain customer loyalty—will deliver steady revenue streams and perform well for investors.

A favorite of Keith’s for years, Republic Services is the second-largest waste management company in the U.S. Keith argues that in rough times it “provides that degree of defensiveness,” given its market share. She also notes that the company has a “very significant amount of recurring, annuity-type revenue”: In fact, about 80% of its revenue comes from such recurring sources, through services that are “mission critical” to commercial and residential customers alike. Republic has a nearly 95% customer retention rate, and its contracts—which often span multiple years—include inflation escalators that allow the company to increase prices as it deals with higher costs. Keith also applauds the company’s capital-allocation strategy and highlights acquisitions, like its recent purchase of US Ecology, another waste management firm. Trading at around 28 times its estimated earnings for the next 12 months, the stock isn’t necessarily cheap. But analysts project that Republic can grow earnings by over 10% in 2023—a decent clip in a slower growth environment. And the company should be more insulated in a short-term recession, Keith notes, since many of its contracts are of longer duration and can’t be modified.

Otis Worldwide is an elevator equipment manufacturer that, though not in “exactly a super glamorous industry,” is what Keith considers a “very good business in terms of being able to generate consistent profits and cash flow.” Otis is the leading firm in the elevator industry worldwide, with over $14 billion in revenue in 2021, and its business is split between new equipment sales and servicing and upgrades of existing elevators. There are a lot of aging elevator systems that need to be replaced in commercial buildings, Keith notes, so there’s a “nice replacement cycle in front of us.” Service and maintenance, meanwhile, provide recurring revenue for Otis and make its earnings more predictable. While the company has been hurt by commodity costs and unfavorable exchange rates driven by the strong dollar, Keith believes it can keep steadily growing earnings. Otis also doles out a nearly 1.5% dividend yield, and year to date has repurchased $700 million worth in shares. Although revenues aren’t expected to go gangbusters in 2023, the Street expects Otis to increase earnings per share by a hefty 12% next year. Its shares trade at around 24 times estimated forward earnings, and Keith believes investors can take a ride—hopefully, upward—on this “very wide-moat business.”

Seeking steadiness doesn’t require sacrificing growth. Jensen’s Schoenstein still believes Microsoft, which was also featured on our stocks to buy for 2022 list, could provide investors with both. “Because it’s commercially focused, it’s not so much about the economy growing for them as it is about their business customers continuing to need their services,” Schoenstein points out. “Unless you have large-scale business failures, Microsoft’s services are still going to be in pretty strong demand.” That includes the tech titan’s enterprise office and productivity software as well as its powerhouse cloud unit; those offerings “are actually allowing companies to be more efficient, which helps them in recessionary times,” he notes. Microsoft ended its 2022 fiscal year in June with just shy of $200 billion in revenue, and analysts project it can grow revenues by about 7% in the fiscal year ending June 2023, and 14% the following fiscal year. That would be below the company’s average of around 15% or so in the past five years, but it still represents a decent pace, given the lackluster economic backdrop. With its shares trading at about 25 times forward earnings, Microsoft also doesn’t come nearly as expensive as some of its growthy tech peers.

Parnassus’s Keith believes that Sysco also fits into the “recession-proof bucket.” Sysco is the world’s largest food distributor, servicing the likes of restaurants, hotels, and hospitals. Keith notes that the company has benefited from having “very significant market share” in the U.S., at about 17% of the fragmented field. That leadership position helps the company on many fronts: “Sysco is investing in their business in terms of technology, in terms of their employees, [and] having the ability to service customers more efficiently,” Keith says, which should help them gain even more market share. She also points to the firm’s track record for surviving downturns well, noting that it navigated the 2008 financial crisis deftly: “There’s a really strong case here that the company can weather additional downturns.” Although recessions often prompt consumers to spend less money at restaurants, Keith notes that owing to changes in demographics and spending habits, consumers will likely continue eating out if the economy slumps in 2023. And if inflation does begin to meaningfully cool next year, that should also help Sysco by lowering its costs for fuel and other expenses. Analysts expect the company to post a whopping 53% earnings per share growth in the fiscal year ending June 2023; the stock trades at a reasonable 20 times the next 12 months’ earnings, with a 2.3% dividend yield.

Classic recession stocks

In difficult times, it can be comforting—and prudent—to return to what you know. And some money managers suggest doing just that, recommending stocks in industries that historically hold up well in recessions and lower-growth environments.

TJX, the off-price retailing giant whose stores include T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, is a longtime favorite of Eric Schoenstein’s. TJX falls into the category of what Schoenstein calls “treasure hunt” stores, where budget-conscious customers search for deals. He points out that there’s a “good track record of strong consumer trade-down spending in recessionary periods,” which should be a boon for TJX if 2023 is as glum as some CEOs fear. The company buys some of its inventory from full-price department stores that can’t sell it—and Schoenstein believes that if there is a recession, TJX should be able to get more of that discounted overstock. Morningstar analyst Zain Akbari is of the same mind, writing in a recent note that “with consumers increasingly looking for value amid an unsettled economic landscape, we believe TJX is well positioned.” The Street expects TJX to increase earnings per share by about 11% next year and to almost double that in 2024. The stock trades at 23 times forward earnings and comes with a 1.5% dividend yield.

For investors who are really wringing their hands about the possibility of a 2023 recession, Schoenstein recommends tried-and-true Procter & Gamble, what he considers “your classic consumer staple that ought to be pretty good during a recession.” The consumer goods titan’s business focuses on “personal care, grooming, home care, fabric care, baby care,” he notes. “People don’t stop spending on those things.” And even if tougher times and sticky inflation prompt consumers to look for the cheaper brand on the shelf, Schoenstein says, P&G has some lower-price brands within its family of products.

As a large holding in the S&P 500 (it has a market cap of well over $300 billion), P&G has been hit by the overall selloff in the market; its share price has declined over 13% so far this year, as has the benchmark index. But Schoenstein says the company is still “showing strong, resilient, organic revenue growth”; from his perspective, that’s an upside that offsets hits to P&G’s business that have been driven by currency issues, with the U.S. dollar having soared compared with other global currencies. Both earnings and revenue growth are expected to be muted next year, but Schoenstein highlights P&G’s 2.5% dividend yield as something that strengthens its case for investors. If the company posts the anticipated growth, he says, it “will have a better opportunity to stand out in investors’ minds as everything else slows.”

James Tierney, chief investment officer of concentrated U.S. growth at AllianceBernstein, favors Zoetis, which makes medicines and vaccines for pets and livestock. “Animal health is going to be something that you need year in, year out, whether you have a recession or not,” Tierney notes. The stock has encountered some headwinds, including exchange rate issues, since a sizable portion of its business is outside the U.S.; supply constraints; and a shortage of veterinarians working in clinics. These factors have prompted Zoetis to lower sales guidance for the year, and its stock is down nearly 40% in 2022. But Tierney says the company’s balance sheet is “ironclad,” and believes that issues like vet supply will correct themselves next year. CEO Kristin Peck said on Zoetis’s recent earnings call that she’s optimistic the firm has the drug pipeline, market dominance, and financial fortitude to “continue outpacing” growth in the animal health market. Zoetis is expected to bring in nearly $8 billion in revenue this year, and analysts estimate the company can grow earnings by over 8% in 2023, while revenues could grow more than 6%.

Recession or not, if your car needs to be fixed, you’re going to fix it. That’s why Parnassus’s Keith likes O’Reilly Automotive, the auto-parts retailer. In tougher economic times, Keith notes, “drivers hold on to their cars for longer [and] look to do more repairs versus purchasing new cars,” a trend that should benefit O’Reilly. She applauds the company’s strong cash flow generation and sturdy balance sheet, and says it has typically performed well in recessions. On the back of a strong third-quarter earnings report, during which the company beat estimates and raised earnings guidance for the full year, analysts across Wall Street upped their price target for O’Reilly. And the Street estimates the company can grow earnings per share by over 12% next year, a hearty clip faster than the 6% they expect for 2022. O’Reilly’s stock, meanwhile, is expected to trade around 23 times forward earnings in the coming year.

Emerging-market bets

Ramiz Chelat of Vontobel says investors may be surprised to find that some emerging markets will be “quite resilient” in 2023—in particular India and Brazil, whose economies could outperform markets like the U.S. heading into next year while at the same time having room to cut interest rates. Factors like these, in those and other countries, could make emerging-market growth look more appealing than developed-market growth in certain areas next year, Chelat argues.

For those reasons among others, Chelat likes Heineken, the globally known brewer based in the Netherlands. Chelat says the company has a strong presence in Brazil and Southeast Asia, “which are seeing improving growth” as they accelerate their post-COVID pandemic reopening. He believes those markets structurally “should be in better shape in 2023 and beyond” than the U.S. Chelat notes that despite weaker earnings in the most recent quarter, Heineken has maintained strong pricing power, while generating organic volume growth in the upper single digits. Analysts estimate that Heineken can grow revenue in the 8% range and earnings per share by about 7% for the next calendar year. In 2023, the stock is expected to trade at a reasonable 17 times forward earnings (it’s currently trading at around 14).

Chelat is particularly bullish on India in the wake of systemic reforms of the country’s tax and bankruptcy laws. India’s GDP is estimated to grow at around 5% next year, a rate which, while slower than in 2022, will likely outpace that of the U.S. and many other countries. Chelat argues that India is a market that’s poised for growth in mortgages and consumer credit. That belief is reflected in his enthusiasm for HDFC Bank, a longtime holding of Vontobel’s, which he says is still “taking market share in its core segments, in mortgages in particular.” That business is only expected to get stronger as the company completes its merger with one of India’s leading housing finance firms. Chelat says the combined network will be able “to sell mortgages across a much wider branch network and leverage HDFC Bank’s deposit strength.” Analysts are optimistic, predicting nearly 21% revenue growth for the fiscal year ending in March 2024 (for the current fiscal year, ending next March, analysts estimate it will bring in over $14 billion in revenue), while earnings per share could grow roughly 17% in the same time frame. Trading at around 19 times the next 12 months’ estimated earnings, HDFC’s stock is among the cheaper picks on Fortune’s list—a potentially nice entry point for investors willing to bet on emerging markets.

For those who have faith in consumer demand in Southeast Asia, AllianceBernstein’s co-CIO of concentrated global growth Dev Chakrabarti recommends Philippines-based Universal Robina. It’s a consumer staples company that makes snacks, cup noodles, and beverages, exporting its wares to countries like Indonesia and Vietnam; it brought in $2.4 billion in revenue in 2021. Chakrabarti believes that Southeast Asian markets are seeing the benefit of manufacturing moving outside of China; he expects that a growing youth demographic and rising incomes will combine to “be a key driver of demand for branded consumer goods.” That should all benefit Universal Robina, which Chakrabarti says has taken advantage of the pandemic’s disruptions to improve its costs, poising the company to profit from Asia’s post-COVID reopening. Though higher costs have put pressure on the company’s margins, it recently reported strong sales growth in its third quarter, and Chakrabarti expects it will be able to push through price increases to offset inflation. Analysts expect Universal Robina’s earnings to shrink this year, but they estimate the company can deliver over 15% earnings growth in 2023 while growing revenues at around 7%. The stock, meanwhile, comes historically cheap: It’s trading 30% below its five-year high as well as below its average price-to-earnings ratio for that period. J.P. Morgan analysts consider the stock an “underappreciated high-quality staples name.” That could offer investors an inexpensive way to bet on the Southeast Asian consumer.

*****

Picks from the experts

Republic Services (RSG, $134)

Otis Worldwide (OTIS, $78)

Microsoft (MSFT, $241)

Sysco (SYY, $85)

TJX (TJX, $78)

Procter & Gamble (PG, $143)

Zoetis (ZTS, $146)

O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY, $838)

Heineken (OTC:HEINY, $45)

HDFC Bank (HDB, $68)

Universal Robina (PSE:URC, $2)

Prices as of 11/18/22

*****

How Fortune did

To quote a colleague: Oof. We believed our “Stocks for Smoother Sailing” for 2022 would withstand inflation. But prices and interest rates rose far faster than we expected, and our picks lost a median of 41% over the past 12 months. Here’s how it went down.—Matt Heimer

Big Tech, tamed

Tech giants are hardly teetering on the verge of extinction. But the growth they saw in the COVID work-and-shop-from-home lockdown era wasn’t sustainable—nor, it turns out, were the share valuations that our picks Microsoft, Amazon, and Salesforce were commanding a year ago. They racked up losses of 29%, 49%, and 51%, respectively.

Chip shot

Few companies dominate their industry like chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., and in the five years through January 2022, its stock nearly quintupled. This year, the combination of geopolitical tensions and recession fears dimmed its luster; its shareholders lost 32% over the past year, while the S&P 500 lost just 14%.

Comfort stocks

Our portfolio’s only outperformers were consumer staples stocks, which often do well when recession fears loom. Those included Nestlé, Johnson & Johnson, and—speaking of chipmakers—PepsiCo, owner of Frito-Lay. Pepsi was our best pick, with a 14% total return.

A version of this article appears in the December 2022/January 2023 issue of Fortune with the headline, “11 stocks to stick with for 2023: Bullish prospects in bearish times.” Parts of this article were previously published online on Oct. 13, 2022, under the title, “Where to invest now: The 8 best stocks to buy for 2023.”

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