美国解除口罩禁令，“口红指数”再次引起关注
许多人认为，口罩敲响了“口红指数”的丧钟。所谓“口红指数”这种理论认为，口红销量与经济健康状况呈负相关的关系。
它一度被证明是正确的。但当口罩遮住了我们的口鼻，口红几乎变得没有必要。（甚至涂口红会弄脏口罩内部。）不过随着口罩禁令解除，化妆品行业开始复兴。经济学家又开始跟踪魅可（MAC）的Velvet Teddy、露华浓（Revlon）的Super Lustrous等口红的销量。
口红指数认为，在经济危机期间，人们会减少外出就餐、健身房会员等方面的开支，但会购买小型奢侈品，例如口红或曲奇饼干等。这个词来自雅诗兰黛（Estée Lauder）化妆品公司的荣誉董事长伦纳德·劳德，并且有该公司的销售数据作为依据。换言之，口红销量可以作为判断经济衰退即将来临或已经到来的主要线索。
NPD集团（NPD Group）发现，唇妆（包括唇釉和唇部滋润商品等）是2022年化妆品市场增长最快的品类。该类产品今年第一季度的销售收入较2021年同期增长了48%。
NPD集团的化妆品市场分析师娜塔莉亚·巴姆比扎说：“过去一年的经济情绪持续下降，与2021年相比，人们对个人财务状况和进行大额购物的信心在今年3月降至史上最低。但口红销量却每周都在上涨。口红销量的稳定上涨表明消费者愿意为这种‘有则很好’的化妆品消费，而且现在人们有一个很好的理由继续涂口红。口红再次成为‘能够负担的奢侈品’，消费者希望并且可以通过它来获得情感上的慰藉。”
当然，口红理论不乏批评者。他们认为口红销量很难准确衡量，因为这类产品的制造者众多，而且很少有公司会单独列出这一类产品的数据。但随着通胀率飙升和对经济衰退的担忧持续蔓延，预计会有更多的分析师至少会悄悄关注NPD集团下一次公布的数据。（财富中文网）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
许多人认为，口罩敲响了“口红指数”的丧钟。所谓“口红指数”这种理论认为，口红销量与经济健康状况呈负相关的关系。
它一度被证明是正确的。但当口罩遮住了我们的口鼻，口红几乎变得没有必要。（甚至涂口红会弄脏口罩内部。）不过随着口罩禁令解除，化妆品行业开始复兴。经济学家又开始跟踪魅可（MAC）的Velvet Teddy、露华浓（Revlon）的Super Lustrous等口红的销量。
口红指数认为，在经济危机期间，人们会减少外出就餐、健身房会员等方面的开支，但会购买小型奢侈品，例如口红或曲奇饼干等。这个词来自雅诗兰黛（Estée Lauder）化妆品公司的荣誉董事长伦纳德·劳德，并且有该公司的销售数据作为依据。换言之，口红销量可以作为判断经济衰退即将来临或已经到来的主要线索。
NPD集团（NPD Group）发现，唇妆（包括唇釉和唇部滋润商品等）是2022年化妆品市场增长最快的品类。该类产品今年第一季度的销售收入较2021年同期增长了48%。
NPD集团的化妆品市场分析师娜塔莉亚·巴姆比扎说：“过去一年的经济情绪持续下降，与2021年相比，人们对个人财务状况和进行大额购物的信心在今年3月降至史上最低。但口红销量却每周都在上涨。口红销量的稳定上涨表明消费者愿意为这种‘有则很好’的化妆品消费，而且现在人们有一个很好的理由继续涂口红。口红再次成为‘能够负担的奢侈品’，消费者希望并且可以通过它来获得情感上的慰藉。”
当然，口红理论不乏批评者。他们认为口红销量很难准确衡量，因为这类产品的制造者众多，而且很少有公司会单独列出这一类产品的数据。但随着通胀率飙升和对经济衰退的担忧持续蔓延，预计会有更多的分析师至少会悄悄关注NPD集团下一次公布的数据。（财富中文网）
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
Face masks, many people thought, would be a death knell to the “lipstick index,” the theory that lipstick sales are inversely related to the health of the economy.
For a while, that proved true. With our mouths and noses hidden behind masks, lipstick became largely unnecessary. (And even if you wore it, it would just smudge on the inside of your mask.) But as mask mandates go away, the makeup industry is seeing a resurgence. And economists are once again tracking sales of MAC's Velvet Teddy, Revlon’s Super Lustrous, and more.
The lipstick index theorizes that while people cut back on things like eating out and gym memberships when the economy is in crisis, they flock to small luxuries, like lipstick or cookies. It was the brainchild of Leonard Lauder, chairman emeritus of Estée Lauder cosmetics and backed up by that company’s own sales numbers. In other words, lipstick sales could be a major clue about whether a recession is looming—or already underway.
The NPD Group notes that lip makeup (which includes lip gloss and other pucker enhancers) is the fastest growing area in the makeup category for 2022. Sales revenues in the first quarter were up 48% compared with the same period in 2021.
“Economic sentiment has been decreasing over the past year, with confidence in personal finances and making a major purchase falling to an all-time low in March, compared to last year,” says Natallia Bambiza, NPD’s makeup category analyst. “But lipstick sales keep growing, week over week. This steady growth illustrates consumers’ desire to splurge on this ‘nice to have’ makeup item, now that lipstick has a good reason to be worn again. Lipstick is once again becoming the ‘affordable luxury’ that consumers want—and can—turn to for emotional comfort.”
Certainly, the lipstick theory has detractors, who note that lipstick sales are hard to pinpoint, given how many companies manufacture the product and how few break the category out individually. But as inflation rages and fears of a recession continue to grow, expect more than a few analysts to keep at least a covert eye on the next batch of numbers from NPD.
