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房屋建筑类股票出乎意料地便宜,分析师称这4只股票现在最值得购买

CHRIS TAYLOR
2022-04-18

你永远不会猜到这种好运气会降临到房屋建筑商。

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如果您想知道过去几年住房作为一种资产类别表现如何,只要问问任何潜在的买家就能知道了。他们的沮丧会告诉你所有你需要知道的事情。

根据标准普尔-核心逻辑-凯斯席勒((S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller)指数的数据,1月份年度房价涨幅达到了19.2%,是35年来第四高的数据。

但有趣的是,从市场的一个角落看,你永远不会猜到这种好运气会降临到:房屋建筑商。

房屋建筑类股票在2022年遭受沉重打击,使得许多只股票成为深度价值股。从年初至今,SPDR 标普房屋建造商指数基金(SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB))已下跌超过20%,许多个人股的远期市盈率在4或5的范围内。

发生了什么事呢?“客厅里的大象——一个视而不见而明摆着的事实”是利率上升。30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率最近超过5%,这是自2011年以来从未见过的水平。随着美联储发出更多的加息信号以帮助抑制通货膨胀,这将影响住房负担能力——可能会遏制房价收益。

总部位于芝加哥的研究机构晨星公司(Morningstar)的工业股票研究主任布莱恩·伯纳德(Brian Bernard)说:"一旦我们开始看到利率上升,我们就会预料到这一点。按揭贷款利率在很短的时间内一直在上升,房价是有史以来最高的,住房负担能力是问题所在。"

由于供应链问题和全社会的通胀压力,再加上材料价格的上涨,你就能明白为什么担忧已经影响股票价格了。但是,正如经验丰富的分析师所知道的那样,市场往往在上行和下行方面都有超调的倾向。投资者已经对这些股票进行了惩罚,以至于出现了一些令人感兴趣的价值。

美国银行(Bank of America)的资深住宅建筑分析师雷夫·贾德罗西奇(Rafe Jadrosich)表示:"我们对住宅建筑股的前景持积极态度,实际上刚刚根据估值提升了其中一些股票,他们的盈利倍数非常低,其中很多都接近1倍的账面价值或更低。这通常是估值见底的水平。"

对于那些担心风险的人来说,请记住,房屋建筑商似乎已经从上一次住房危机中吸取了一些教训。现在的业务往往围绕着期权合约。这意味着这些公司可以选择在土地上建房,但并没有义务这样做——因此,如果成本预算不可行,他们可以在没有太大损失的情况下离开,而且不必将所有的土地纳入自己的资产负债表。

更广泛地说,该行业的基本面仍然是积极的。供应短缺是不可否认的,再加上人口现状:庞大的千禧一代人群正经历购房黄金期。

布莱恩·伯纳德表示:"事实是,美国并没有足够的住房。目前有350万套住房短缺,尽管我看到一些估计表示住房短缺高达550万套。即使利率上升,减缓了需求,我们仍有很长的路要走来应对人口增长和人口趋势,如千禧一代达到购房年龄。这是一个看涨的住房前景"。

当然,在短期内,房屋建筑商可能会继续受到每次加息的打击。但有耐心和足够长时间表的投资者可能会得到很好的回报。以下是一些值得一看的房屋建筑商:

霍顿公司(D.R. Horton(DHI))。由于利率上升影响了负担能力,更多的买家将被推向住房市场的入门级部分,而这正是霍顿公司的优势所在。布莱恩·伯纳德说,就体量而言,霍顿公司是美国最大的房屋建筑商,也是 "我的首选",其公允价值估计为113美元。稳健的资产负债表、较低价位的强劲表现以及轻资产的商业模式,意味着它应该能够经受住任何住房市场的动荡。

普尔特集团(PulteGroup(PHM))。投资者对这家价值100亿美元的建筑商非常熟悉,但雷夫·贾德罗西奇表示: "在我们谈及的所有房屋建筑商中,它的市净率是最低的。"这也难怪,因为到目前为止,它在今年已经下跌了约25%。但鉴于其良好的股本回报率前景,即使是1.5倍账面价值的适度估值,也会将其股价从目前略高于40美元的水平推高至58美元。摩根大通银行(J.P Morgan)的分析师也是该集团的粉丝,他们将该集团的股票评级为 "增持",这得益于其诱人的 "估值贴现"。

莱纳房产公司(Lennar Corp. (LEN))。这个大盘股的平均售价高于霍顿公司,而且莱纳房产公司是美国收益最高的建筑商之一。该公司还涉足一些辅助业务,如多户住宅开发,但该公司近年来一直在剥离非核心资产,专注于成为一家纯粹的建筑商。该公司被晨星公司评为四星级,其公允价值估计为124美元。(您可以在此处阅读《财富》杂志中肖恩·塔利(Shawn Tully) 关于莱纳房产公司的专题报道。)

托尔兄弟公司(Toll Brothers(TOL))。这只股票代表了房屋建筑行业的高端建筑商。托尔兄弟公司并没有出现在入门级市场中,而预计大多数集团的增长是在入门级市场中实现的。但从好的方面看,它的买家往往更富有——许多人以现金购买房屋,因此在购房时不会对利率那么敏感。美国银行的目标是63美元,高于目前的46美元。雷夫·贾德罗西奇指出:"托尔兄弟公司资产负债表上三分之二的土地是在新冠肺炎疫情爆发之前购买的,当时的价格要低得多,我认为这些土地的账面价值被低估了——股票甚至比看起来更便宜。"(财富中文网)

如果您想知道过去几年住房作为一种资产类别表现如何,只要问问任何潜在的买家就能知道了。他们的沮丧会告诉你所有你需要知道的事情。

根据标准普尔-核心逻辑-凯斯席勒((S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller)指数的数据,1月份年度房价涨幅达到了19.2%,是35年来第四高的数据。

但有趣的是,从市场的一个角落看,你永远不会猜到这种好运气会降临到:房屋建筑商。

房屋建筑类股票在2022年遭受沉重打击,使得许多只股票成为深度价值股。从年初至今,SPDR 标普房屋建造商指数基金(SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB))已下跌超过20%,许多个人股的远期市盈率在4或5的范围内。

发生了什么事呢?“客厅里的大象——一个视而不见而明摆着的事实”是利率上升。30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率最近超过5%,这是自2011年以来从未见过的水平。随着美联储发出更多的加息信号以帮助抑制通货膨胀,这将影响住房负担能力——可能会遏制房价收益。

总部位于芝加哥的研究机构晨星公司(Morningstar)的工业股票研究主任布莱恩·伯纳德(Brian Bernard)说:"一旦我们开始看到利率上升,我们就会预料到这一点。按揭贷款利率在很短的时间内一直在上升,房价是有史以来最高的,住房负担能力是问题所在。"

由于供应链问题和全社会的通胀压力,再加上材料价格的上涨,你就能明白为什么担忧已经影响股票价格了。但是,正如经验丰富的分析师所知道的那样,市场往往在上行和下行方面都有超调的倾向。投资者已经对这些股票进行了惩罚,以至于出现了一些令人感兴趣的价值。

美国银行(Bank of America)的资深住宅建筑分析师雷夫·贾德罗西奇(Rafe Jadrosich)表示:"我们对住宅建筑股的前景持积极态度,实际上刚刚根据估值提升了其中一些股票,他们的盈利倍数非常低,其中很多都接近1倍的账面价值或更低。这通常是估值见底的水平。"

对于那些担心风险的人来说,请记住,房屋建筑商似乎已经从上一次住房危机中吸取了一些教训。现在的业务往往围绕着期权合约。这意味着这些公司可以选择在土地上建房,但并没有义务这样做——因此,如果成本预算不可行,他们可以在没有太大损失的情况下离开,而且不必将所有的土地纳入自己的资产负债表。

更广泛地说,该行业的基本面仍然是积极的。供应短缺是不可否认的,再加上人口现状:庞大的千禧一代人群正经历购房黄金期。

布莱恩·伯纳德表示:"事实是,美国并没有足够的住房。目前有350万套住房短缺,尽管我看到一些估计表示住房短缺高达550万套。即使利率上升,减缓了需求,我们仍有很长的路要走来应对人口增长和人口趋势,如千禧一代达到购房年龄。这是一个看涨的住房前景"。

当然,在短期内,房屋建筑商可能会继续受到每次加息的打击。但有耐心和足够长时间表的投资者可能会得到很好的回报。以下是一些值得一看的房屋建筑商:

霍顿公司(D.R. Horton(DHI))。由于利率上升影响了负担能力,更多的买家将被推向住房市场的入门级部分,而这正是霍顿公司的优势所在。布莱恩·伯纳德说,就体量而言,霍顿公司是美国最大的房屋建筑商,也是 "我的首选",其公允价值估计为113美元。稳健的资产负债表、较低价位的强劲表现以及轻资产的商业模式,意味着它应该能够经受住任何住房市场的动荡。

普尔特集团(PulteGroup(PHM))。投资者对这家价值100亿美元的建筑商非常熟悉,但雷夫·贾德罗西奇表示: "在我们谈及的所有房屋建筑商中,它的市净率是最低的。"这也难怪,因为到目前为止,它在今年已经下跌了约25%。但鉴于其良好的股本回报率前景,即使是1.5倍账面价值的适度估值,也会将其股价从目前略高于40美元的水平推高至58美元。摩根大通银行(J.P Morgan)的分析师也是该集团的粉丝,他们将该集团的股票评级为 "增持",这得益于其诱人的 "估值贴现"。

莱纳房产公司(Lennar Corp. (LEN))。这个大盘股的平均售价高于霍顿公司,而且莱纳房产公司是美国收益最高的建筑商之一。该公司还涉足一些辅助业务,如多户住宅开发,但该公司近年来一直在剥离非核心资产,专注于成为一家纯粹的建筑商。该公司被晨星公司评为四星级,其公允价值估计为124美元。(您可以在此处阅读《财富》杂志中肖恩·塔利(Shawn Tully) 关于莱纳房产公司的专题报道。)

托尔兄弟公司(Toll Brothers(TOL))。这只股票代表了房屋建筑行业的高端建筑商。托尔兄弟公司并没有出现在入门级市场中,而预计大多数集团的增长是在入门级市场中实现的。但从好的方面看,它的买家往往更富有——许多人以现金购买房屋,因此在购房时不会对利率那么敏感。美国银行的目标是63美元,高于目前的46美元。雷夫·贾德罗西奇指出:"托尔兄弟公司资产负债表上三分之二的土地是在新冠肺炎疫情爆发之前购买的,当时的价格要低得多,我认为这些土地的账面价值被低估了——股票甚至比看起来更便宜。"(财富中文网)

If you were wondering how residential housing has been doing as an asset class the last few years, just ask any potential buyers. Their despondence will tell you all you need to know.

Annual home-price gains were a scorching 19.2% in January, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: the fourth-hottest reading in 35 years.

But funnily enough, you’d never guess at this good fortune from looking at one corner of the market: homebuilders.

Such stocks have been battered and bruised in 2022, placing many names in seemingly deep-value territory. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) has sunk over 20% year-to-date, with the forward price/earnings ratios of many individual stocks in the ugly range of four or five.

So what gives? The elephant in the living room, of course, is rising interest rates. Average 30-year fixed mortgages recently crossed 5%, a level not seen since 2011. With the Federal Reserve signaling more rate hikes to help tamp down inflation, this will impact housing affordability—which could put the brakes on red-hot price gains.

“Once we started seeing interest rates go up, we were expecting this,” says Brian Bernard, director of industrials equity research for Chicago-based research shop Morningstar. “Mortgage rates have been increasing in a very short period of time, home prices are the highest they have ever been, and home affordability is becoming a concern.”

Throw in rising materials prices, thanks to supply-chain troubles and society-wide inflationary pressures, and you can see why worry has been baked into stock prices. But as seasoned analysts know, the market often tends to overshoot both on the upside and the downside. Investors have so punished these stocks already that some intriguing values have emerged.

“We have a positive outlook on homebuilder stocks, and actually just upgraded a few of them based on valuations,” says Rafe Jadrosich, senior homebuilders analyst for Bank of America. “Their earnings multiples are very low, and a lot of them are approaching 1x book value or below. This is typically around the level where valuations bottom out.”

For those worried about risk, keep in mind that homebuilders seem to have learned a few lessons from the last housing crisis. Business now often revolves around option contracts: That means these companies have the option of building on tracts, but not the obligation—so they can walk away without too much damage if it’s not cost-feasible, and don’t have to carry all that land on their own balance sheets.

More broadly, the fundamentals of the sector remain positive: an undeniable shortage of supply, combined with the demographic reality that the huge millennial generation is transiting through its prime homebuying years.

“The fact is, there is not enough housing in the U.S.,” says Bernard. “There is a shortage of 3.5 million homes, although I have seen some estimates as high as 5.5 million. Even if interest rates slow demand, we still have a long way to go to deal with population growth and demographic trends like millennials reaching homeowner age. This is a bullish outlook for housing.”

In the near term, of course, homebuilders will likely continue to get punched with every rate increase. But investors with patience and a long enough timeline could be nicely rewarded. A few homebuilders that are a worth a look:

D.R. Horton (DHI). As rising rates affect affordability, more buyers will be nudged toward the entry-level section of the housing market—and that’s where D.R. Horton is especially well-positioned. The nation’s largest homebuilder by volume, it is “my top pick,” says Bernard, with a fair-value estimate of $113. A solid balance sheet, strong presence at lower price points, and an asset-light business model means that it should be able to weather any housing-market turbulence.

PulteGroup (PHM). This $10 billion builder is very familiar to investors, but “across the universe of homebuilders we cover, it has the cheapest price-to-book ratio,” says Jadrosich. No wonder, since it is down around 25% on the year so far. But given its healthy return-on-equity outlook, even a modest valuation of 1.5x book value would boost its shares to $58, from its current level just over $40. Analysts from J.P Morgan are also fans, rating the stock “overweight” thanks to its appetizing “valuation discount.”

Lennar Corp. (LEN). This large-cap name has a higher average selling price than D.R. Horton, and is one of the nation’s top builders by revenue. It also has a presence in some ancillary businesses like multifamily developments, but has been spinning off non-core assets in recent years to focus on being a pure-play builder. It’s ranked four stars by Morningstar, with a fair-value estimate of $124. (You can read Shawn Tully's feature in Fortune about Lennar here.)

Toll Brothers (TOL). This stock represents the higher end of the homebuilding sector. It’s not as present in the entry-level slice of the market, where much of the group’s growth is expected to take place. But on the plus side, its buyers tend to be more well-heeled—many paying cash for their homes—and so won’t be as rate-sensitive in their buying decisions. Bank of America’s target: $63, up from its current $46. “Two-thirds of the land on their balance sheet was purchased pre-COVID, when prices were much lower,” Jadrosich points out. “I think the book value of that land is understated—and the stock is even cheaper than it looks.”

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