立即打开
英国正全力投入风电,可是风突然停了!

英国正全力投入风电,可是风突然停了!

Sophie Mellor 2021年09月23日
就在欧洲最需要能源的时候,北海的风停了,这迫使地区能源市场争夺天然气储备,为家庭供暖和企业供电。

位于北海(North Sea)的海上风电场呈指数级增长,证明了欧洲国家共同努力在电网脱碳方面投入时间、精力和资金。

就在欧洲最需要能源的时候,北海的风停了,这迫使地区能源市场争夺天然气储备,为家庭供暖和企业供电。

它造成的后果很昂贵。

能源转型带来的意外后果变成了电费飙升。可再生资源成本低且属于无碳排放,欧洲能源市场对其依赖程度日益增高,然而这显然不可靠,比如风如果停了怎么办。

临近冬季之际,随着该地区从新冠疫情中走出,需要更多的能源来推动经济复苏,欧洲国家逐渐搁置了限制碳排放的配额,并且重新考虑燃煤电厂,以填补风能缺失造成的缺口。

如果说转向碳排放能源还不够苦涩,整个欧洲大陆的天然气供应就更是陷入了地缘政治纠葛。俄罗斯不断增加储量,或许是为了提升欧洲对“北溪-2”(Nord Stream 2)天然气管道的兴趣,而且中国、日本和韩国对液化天然气(LNG)的出价超过欧洲,来自俄罗斯的供应已经下降。

“可再生能源发电强劲增长显然会影响电价和电力结构。”能源研究公司Rystad energy的天然气和电力市场负责人卡洛斯·托雷斯·迪亚兹表示。

一片平静

英国面临的情况尤为严重,目前该国的能源总量中,风能仅占7%,与2020年风能平均占发电总量25%相比急剧下降。

英国的海上风电领域是能源转换的成功案例,过去十年里输出了24GW风力发电,足够大幅削减排放量,而且可以为720万个家庭供电。但随着风力放缓,碳信用额度价格升至创纪录高位,电力市场经历了极端动荡。

“我们提高可再生能源普及率的目标非常高,随之而来的日益严重的问题是价格波动。”Wood Mackenzie公司的海上风电分析师芬利·克拉克说。

因此,燃气和燃煤发电厂均已重新启用,以填补空白。现在,天然气发电占了英国发电量的一半以上,然而英国海上风力由补贴覆盖,边际成本接近零,但天然气并不是。

就连碳排放量最大的能源煤炭,也已经重返舞台。经历两个月创纪录的无煤期后,现在英国能源结构中煤电仅占3%。面对上周的电力短缺,电力市场运营商国家电网(National Grid)要求法国电力集团(EDF)重启位于诺丁汉郡的西伯顿A(West Burton A)煤电站。但英国关闭所有燃煤电厂的最后期限是2024年,未来可能无法如此选择。

电价高企令人震惊

平静无风再加上全球争夺天然气供应,导致了电力价格的飞涨。在过去一年里,欧洲的天然气价格上涨了500%以上,创造了新的每日纪录,而上涨几乎不可避免地会转嫁到消费者的身上。

英国9月的电价翻了一番,是一年前的七倍。9月14日,第二天的电力调度价格为每兆瓦时424.61英镑(588美元),是2020年9月平均价格的10倍,两家能源供应商因此倒闭。自10月1日起,英国的天然气和电力市场监管机构Ofgem将提高公用事业向用户收费的价格上限,1100万户家庭的电费将上涨。

在欧盟(EU),电力危机对消费者的影响已经造成了政治影响。

西班牙总理佩德罗·桑切斯宣布临时减税,帮助消费者渡过难关。一天之内西班牙电价就上涨了12.6%。法国政府正在考虑增加可以直接获得燃油补贴的人数,希腊则启动了1.5亿欧元(1.77亿美元)的能源转型基金,以补偿最近的电价上涨。

替代来源

现在的问题是能源价格飙升会持续多久,以及如何规划能源转型加以避免。

丹斯克大宗商品公司(Danske Commodities)的电力市场分析主管马丁·尤尔指出,随着煤炭逐步淘汰和能源消耗电气化,为电力生产提供替代燃料来源以实现能源结构多样化将越发重要。

欧盟委员会(European Commission)和英国政府一直在投资新技术,例如能源密集型电池和氢气技术,目的就是可再生能源不可靠时,不必再启用天然气或煤炭。

与此同时,海上风力发电能力正在提高。Wood Mackenzie公司的数据显示,海上风电场容量系数每年增长2%,具体意思是2006年平均每座风电场运行容量仅为总容量的30%,但现在随着技术进步和安置改善,海上风电场运行效率更高。

但首先,风得重新吹起来。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

位于北海(North Sea)的海上风电场呈指数级增长,证明了欧洲国家共同努力在电网脱碳方面投入时间、精力和资金。

就在欧洲最需要能源的时候,北海的风停了,这迫使地区能源市场争夺天然气储备,为家庭供暖和企业供电。

它造成的后果很昂贵。

能源转型带来的意外后果变成了电费飙升。可再生资源成本低且属于无碳排放,欧洲能源市场对其依赖程度日益增高,然而这显然不可靠,比如风如果停了怎么办。

临近冬季之际,随着该地区从新冠疫情中走出,需要更多的能源来推动经济复苏,欧洲国家逐渐搁置了限制碳排放的配额,并且重新考虑燃煤电厂,以填补风能缺失造成的缺口。

如果说转向碳排放能源还不够苦涩,整个欧洲大陆的天然气供应就更是陷入了地缘政治纠葛。俄罗斯不断增加储量,或许是为了提升欧洲对“北溪-2”(Nord Stream 2)天然气管道的兴趣,而且中国、日本和韩国对液化天然气(LNG)的出价超过欧洲,来自俄罗斯的供应已经下降。

“可再生能源发电强劲增长显然会影响电价和电力结构。”能源研究公司Rystad energy的天然气和电力市场负责人卡洛斯·托雷斯·迪亚兹表示。

一片平静

英国面临的情况尤为严重,目前该国的能源总量中,风能仅占7%,与2020年风能平均占发电总量25%相比急剧下降。

英国的海上风电领域是能源转换的成功案例,过去十年里输出了24GW风力发电,足够大幅削减排放量,而且可以为720万个家庭供电。但随着风力放缓,碳信用额度价格升至创纪录高位,电力市场经历了极端动荡。

“我们提高可再生能源普及率的目标非常高,随之而来的日益严重的问题是价格波动。”Wood Mackenzie公司的海上风电分析师芬利·克拉克说。

因此,燃气和燃煤发电厂均已重新启用,以填补空白。现在,天然气发电占了英国发电量的一半以上,然而英国海上风力由补贴覆盖,边际成本接近零,但天然气并不是。

就连碳排放量最大的能源煤炭,也已经重返舞台。经历两个月创纪录的无煤期后,现在英国能源结构中煤电仅占3%。面对上周的电力短缺,电力市场运营商国家电网(National Grid)要求法国电力集团(EDF)重启位于诺丁汉郡的西伯顿A(West Burton A)煤电站。但英国关闭所有燃煤电厂的最后期限是2024年,未来可能无法如此选择。

电价高企令人震惊

平静无风再加上全球争夺天然气供应,导致了电力价格的飞涨。在过去一年里,欧洲的天然气价格上涨了500%以上,创造了新的每日纪录,而上涨几乎不可避免地会转嫁到消费者的身上。

英国9月的电价翻了一番,是一年前的七倍。9月14日,第二天的电力调度价格为每兆瓦时424.61英镑(588美元),是2020年9月平均价格的10倍,两家能源供应商因此倒闭。自10月1日起,英国的天然气和电力市场监管机构Ofgem将提高公用事业向用户收费的价格上限,1100万户家庭的电费将上涨。

在欧盟(EU),电力危机对消费者的影响已经造成了政治影响。

西班牙总理佩德罗·桑切斯宣布临时减税,帮助消费者渡过难关。一天之内西班牙电价就上涨了12.6%。法国政府正在考虑增加可以直接获得燃油补贴的人数,希腊则启动了1.5亿欧元(1.77亿美元)的能源转型基金,以补偿最近的电价上涨。

替代来源

现在的问题是能源价格飙升会持续多久,以及如何规划能源转型加以避免。

丹斯克大宗商品公司(Danske Commodities)的电力市场分析主管马丁·尤尔指出,随着煤炭逐步淘汰和能源消耗电气化,为电力生产提供替代燃料来源以实现能源结构多样化将越发重要。

欧盟委员会(European Commission)和英国政府一直在投资新技术,例如能源密集型电池和氢气技术,目的就是可再生能源不可靠时,不必再启用天然气或煤炭。

与此同时,海上风力发电能力正在提高。Wood Mackenzie公司的数据显示,海上风电场容量系数每年增长2%,具体意思是2006年平均每座风电场运行容量仅为总容量的30%,但现在随着技术进步和安置改善,海上风电场运行效率更高。

但首先,风得重新吹起来。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

The exponential growth of offshore wind farms in the North Sea has been a testament to the combined efforts of European countries’ investing time, effort, and money in the decarbonization of their electricity grids.

But just as Europe needs energy the most, the wind in the North Sea has stopped blowing, forcing regional energy markets to scramble for gas reserves to heat homes and power businesses.

This has had expensive consequences.

As the European energy market grows increasingly reliant on a renewable energy source that is cheap to harness and carbon-emission free—but is clearly unreliable when the wind isn’t blowing—surging electricity bills are an unintended consequence of the energy transition.

Heading into winter at a time when more energy is already needed to fuel economic recovery as the region emerges from the pandemic, European countries are setting aside quotas meant to cap carbon emissions and rethinking the shutdown of coal plants in order to fill the gap left by the missing wind.

And if turning to carbon-emitting energy sources wasn’t a bitter enough pill, natural gas supply across the continent is tied up in a geopolitical tangle. Supply from Russia has dropped as Russia builds its reserves—and perhaps to increase interest in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline—and China, Japan, and South Korea are outbidding Europe for liquefied natural gas (LNG).

“Definitely the strong growth in renewable power generation is affecting the prices and the power mix,” says Carlos Torres Diaz, head of gas and power markets at energy research firm Rystad Energy.

Dead calm

The situation is especially acute in the U.K., where wind is currently providing only 7% of the country’s energy makeup—a steep drop from the 25% it generated on average across 2020.

The U.K.’s offshore wind sector had been a success story of the energy transition, drastically cutting emissions by rolling out 24GW of wind power over the past decade—enough to power 7.2 million homes. But as wind slowed and the price of carbon credits rose to record highs, the electricity market has experienced extreme volatility.

“We have very steep targets for increased renewable energy penetration, and the growing problem alongside of that is this fluctuation in prices that we’re seeing,” says Finlay Clark, an offshore wind analyst from Wood Mackenzie.

As a result, gas- and coal-fired electricity plants have been brought online to fill the gap. Gas now makes up more than half of the electricity in the U.K., and while the U.K.’s offshore wind is covered by subsidies and operating at zero marginal cost, gas is not.

Even coal, the most carbon-emitting energy source, has returned to the stage; it now accounts for 3% of the British energy makeup after a record-breaking two coal-free months. Faced with the power crunch last week, the electricity market operator National Grid asked EDF to restart the West Burton A coal power station in Nottinghamshire. But with a looming deadline to close all coal plants in the U.K. by 2024, this may not be an option in the future.

Sticker shock

The mix of windless air and competition for the world’s gas supply has caused power prices to skyrocket—the price of natural gas in Europe is up more than 500% over the past year, setting fresh daily records—and that jump will almost inevitably be passed on to consumers.

In the U.K., electricity prices have doubled in the month of September and are seven times as high as those a year ago. Prices for power to be dispatched the next day were at £424.61 ($588) per mwh on September 14—10 times as high as the average price in September 2020—causing two energy suppliers to go out of business. Electricity bills will go up for 11 million households from Oct. 1 after Ofgem increased its price cap on how much utilities can charge customers.

In the EU, the consumer impact of the power crunch has already had political reverberations.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has announced a temporary tax cut to help out consumers in the country, which just saw a single-day 12.6% rise in its electricity prices. The French government is considering increasing the number of people who can qualify for direct subsidies for fuel payments, while Greece has launched a €150 million ($177 million) energy transition fund to compensate for the recent rise in electricity prices.

Alternative sources

The question now is how long spiking energy prices will last—and how to plan the energy transition to avoid them.

As coal is phased out, and electrification of energy consumption increases, it will be even more important to have alternative fuel sources for power production to diversify the energy mix, notes Martin Juhl, head of power markets analysis at Danske Commodities.

The European Commission and the U.K. government have been investing in the rollout of new technologies, like energy-dense batteries and hydrogen, so countries won’t have to turn to gas or coal at times when renewable energy is unreliable.

Meanwhile, offshore wind capacity is improving. Offshore wind has seen 2% growth in its capacity factor each year, according to Wood Mackenzie, meaning that a wind farm on average in 2006 would operate at only 30% of its capacity but now with better technology and better placement, offshore wind farms can operate at a much higher level.

But first the wind has to start blowing again.

最新:
  • 热读文章
  • 热门视频
活动
扫码打开财富Plus App