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2021年最大的互联网IPO,靠的是中国农民

或许会成为最“社交”的电商应用。

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中国浙江明媚的阳光下,屏幕里头发花白身穿紫色毛衣的女性正拣选晾晒的红薯,身后苍翠的山峦隐约可见,身边的小鸡咯咯叫,鸟儿啁啾啼唱。

这期视频标题是“童年的味道”,底部是黄色的购物车小图标,写着“农家甘薯500克”的字样,用户点击后只需花3美元就能买到半公斤视频里同款美味。花上13美元就能买一包绿茶,或者花21美元买自制枇杷蜂蜜。

该直播间是主播王伟的《山居杂记》,主要记录浙江丽水老家附近的田园风光,在快手平台有445,000名粉丝。本周五,成立十年的中国短视频应用快手在香港启动54亿美元的IPO。

快手深受农村和二线城市用户欢迎,像王伟一样的小商户可在平台上分享日常生活并销售商品。王伟的小店里已经卖了769件商品,也推广山区旅游和农家乐住宿。

快手在中国大都市圈之外的深度渗透引得投资者瞩目,平台上每天活跃的3亿用户都可能转化为活跃消费者,这很吸引人。但有个未知数让人不由得担心,王伟之类主播直播销售数十亿美元商品的同时,快手如何获得更多收入。

短故事

2011年,惠普前工程师程一笑开发了专门用于分享GIF动图的应用,GIF动图是21世纪头十年里占据互联网的短动画图像。程一笑将应用称为GIF快手,意思就是“快速的手”。2013年,曾在谷歌担任工程师的宿华加入合资公司,协助快手转型为短视频应用,不管是名字还是平台上,“GIF”功能都消失了。

在最早产品和当前形式之间,快手指出了明确的联系,在香港证券交易所提交的上市申请中,公司称GIFs“本质上是最早的短视频形式”。然后很自然地,短视频之后转向长视频,2016年内容产品线中加入了直播。

直播为快手开辟了收入新渠道。平台开始向用户出售虚拟礼物和表情,用户可以买来送给喜欢的主播当成“打赏”。用户打赏主播时,礼物图标会显示在屏幕上,主播通常会念出打赏用户的名字以示感谢。

王伟最新一次直播持续近五小时,他在村里闲逛,时而跟路人聊天,时而回答直播观众的提问和评论。“谢谢你们的支持,朋友们!”他边说边爬上一段石阶。走在一片树林前,他笑着读了一条要求他露个脸的评论,但他拒绝说:“我长得不好看!”

2017年,快手90%以上的收入来自礼物销售。公司招股说明书显示,“虚拟礼物”仍然是应用最大的收入来源,2020年前9个月占总收入62%。第二大收入来源是广告,占同期收入33%。

从快手财务报表来看,电商业务并不突出。2020年前9个月,电商只贡献了5%的收入,约3.15亿美元。但这并不代表中国蓬勃发展的直播电商领域里快手只是小角色。事实上,2018年快手推出电商业务以来,通过应用销售的商品总价值(GMV)已从2019年的90亿美元飙升至2020年的500亿美元,快手也由此成为按GMV算中国第二大直播电商平台。直播电商之所以对快手收入贡献有限,主要因为平台收取的服务费极低。

买买买

淘宝于2016年推出淘宝直播,成为中国首个推出直播电商的平台,互联网意见领袖纷纷利用自身影响力通过直播推广品牌并销售商品。两年后,快手和抖音也跃跃欲试,但2019年阿里巴巴将直播模式融入庞大的双十一购物节,中国的直播电商迎来了突围时刻。

根据中国电商研究公司100EC的数据,淘宝直播仍然是直播电商的霸主,2020年通过直播电商销售实现的约1580亿美元GMV中,淘宝直播占了一半以上。快手是第二大平台,占总量21%。

北京品牌代理PBB Creative的战略主管亚历山大•夏皮罗说:“将庞大用户群变现,有点像把(快手)变成真正的社交商务平台,非常了不起。”北京科技行业研究公司EqualOcean表示,中国竞争激烈的短视频行业里,快手的用户最活跃,留存率也最高,或许会成为竞争对手里最“社交”的电商应用。

但就平台销售商品收取的服务费而言,快手低于竞争对手。

疫情之初快手便降低了农民主播的服务费,方便小卖家在平台上销售。快手还采用去中心化的内容算法,可将粉丝没那么多的用户视频推送到专题页面上,以获得更多曝光。

种种策略帮助快手在中国小城市和农村地区广受欢迎,而相关地区由于市场饱和程度低于上海和北京等顶级城市,已成为电商争夺的战场。位于香港的零售业分析机构Coresight Research研究员黄伊莲(音)表示,快手用户里有超过85%在小城市生活。

但市场分析机构Agency China的研究和战略经理迈克尔•诺里斯表示,服务费下调意味着“快手的抽成,也就是商家销售产品收取的佣金与其他平台相比相当低。”

虽然快手收取的费用不到通过该平台销售商品总量的1%,但由于直播电商仍是年轻且竞争激烈的市场,快手似乎更重视争取广泛的用户基础,而不是赚钱。

诺里斯说,随着时间推移,快手抽成可能会上升,就像其他科技公司实现规模效应后提高收费一样。“有些投资者认为快手电商业务可走高,就会比较注重类似商业模式,”诺里斯说。

底线

多元化的收入来源也可帮助快手防范突如其来的监管。随着中国对认定“低俗”的内容加强监管,通过销售虚拟“打赏”礼品获取大部分收入的常规直播很容易受到频繁打击。

最近,政府禁止了“吃播”,即用户看主播直播吃东西。去年当局就开始批评吃播视频,称暴饮暴食直播诱发食物浪费。据报道,快手的应对方式是在吃播视频下添加警告标签,鼓励消费者“节约食物,合理饮食”。

不过,监管机构对直播电商的审查也在加强,因为“行业里出现一些不择手段的做法,”诺里斯说,他指的是有些主播夸大销售数字的现象。

直播还有其他困难要克服。

本周一,代表艺术家利益的国有机构中国音像著作权集体管理协会威胁称要起诉快手侵犯版权,理由是快手上有超过1.5亿条未经许可使用的歌曲视频。

不过,监管问题似乎并未影响散户投资者的热情。2月5日,快手登陆港股,开盘价为338港元,截至今日收盘,快手股票上涨160.87%,报300港元每股,总市值达12324.58亿港元(约1600亿美元),成为中国互联网第五大上市公司。

如果蚂蚁集团成功上市,可能已筹集到345亿美元。但随着蚂蚁取消上市,快手的上市案成为了2019年Uber上市以来规模最大的互联网公司上市案

译者:夏林

中国浙江明媚的阳光下,屏幕里头发花白身穿紫色毛衣的女性正拣选晾晒的红薯,身后苍翠的山峦隐约可见,身边的小鸡咯咯叫,鸟儿啁啾啼唱。

这期视频标题是“童年的味道”,底部是黄色的购物车小图标,写着“农家甘薯500克”的字样,用户点击后只需花3美元就能买到半公斤视频里同款美味。花上13美元就能买一包绿茶,或者花21美元买自制枇杷蜂蜜。

该直播间是主播王伟的《山居杂记》,主要记录浙江丽水老家附近的田园风光,在快手平台有445,000名粉丝。本周五,成立十年的中国短视频应用快手在香港启动54亿美元的IPO。

快手深受农村和二线城市用户欢迎,像王伟一样的小商户可在平台上分享日常生活并销售商品。王伟的小店里已经卖了769件商品,也推广山区旅游和农家乐住宿。

快手在中国大都市圈之外的深度渗透引得投资者瞩目,平台上每天活跃的3亿用户都可能转化为活跃消费者,这很吸引人。但有个未知数让人不由得担心,王伟之类主播直播销售数十亿美元商品的同时,快手如何获得更多收入。

短故事

2011年,惠普前工程师程一笑开发了专门用于分享GIF动图的应用,GIF动图是21世纪头十年里占据互联网的短动画图像。程一笑将应用称为GIF快手,意思就是“快速的手”。2013年,曾在谷歌担任工程师的宿华加入合资公司,协助快手转型为短视频应用,不管是名字还是平台上,“GIF”功能都消失了。

在最早产品和当前形式之间,快手指出了明确的联系,在香港证券交易所提交的上市申请中,公司称GIFs“本质上是最早的短视频形式”。然后很自然地,短视频之后转向长视频,2016年内容产品线中加入了直播。

直播为快手开辟了收入新渠道。平台开始向用户出售虚拟礼物和表情,用户可以买来送给喜欢的主播当成“打赏”。用户打赏主播时,礼物图标会显示在屏幕上,主播通常会念出打赏用户的名字以示感谢。

王伟最新一次直播持续近五小时,他在村里闲逛,时而跟路人聊天,时而回答直播观众的提问和评论。“谢谢你们的支持,朋友们!”他边说边爬上一段石阶。走在一片树林前,他笑着读了一条要求他露个脸的评论,但他拒绝说:“我长得不好看!”

2017年,快手90%以上的收入来自礼物销售。公司招股说明书显示,“虚拟礼物”仍然是应用最大的收入来源,2020年前9个月占总收入62%。第二大收入来源是广告,占同期收入33%。

从快手财务报表来看,电商业务并不突出。2020年前9个月,电商只贡献了5%的收入,约3.15亿美元。但这并不代表中国蓬勃发展的直播电商领域里快手只是小角色。事实上,2018年快手推出电商业务以来,通过应用销售的商品总价值(GMV)已从2019年的90亿美元飙升至2020年的500亿美元,快手也由此成为按GMV算中国第二大直播电商平台。直播电商之所以对快手收入贡献有限,主要因为平台收取的服务费极低。

买买买

淘宝于2016年推出淘宝直播,成为中国首个推出直播电商的平台,互联网意见领袖纷纷利用自身影响力通过直播推广品牌并销售商品。两年后,快手和抖音也跃跃欲试,但2019年阿里巴巴将直播模式融入庞大的双十一购物节,中国的直播电商迎来了突围时刻。

根据中国电商研究公司100EC的数据,淘宝直播仍然是直播电商的霸主,2020年通过直播电商销售实现的约1580亿美元GMV中,淘宝直播占了一半以上。快手是第二大平台,占总量21%。

北京品牌代理PBB Creative的战略主管亚历山大•夏皮罗说:“将庞大用户群变现,有点像把(快手)变成真正的社交商务平台,非常了不起。”北京科技行业研究公司EqualOcean表示,中国竞争激烈的短视频行业里,快手的用户最活跃,留存率也最高,或许会成为竞争对手里最“社交”的电商应用。

但就平台销售商品收取的服务费而言,快手低于竞争对手。

疫情之初快手便降低了农民主播的服务费,方便小卖家在平台上销售。快手还采用去中心化的内容算法,可将粉丝没那么多的用户视频推送到专题页面上,以获得更多曝光。

种种策略帮助快手在中国小城市和农村地区广受欢迎,而相关地区由于市场饱和程度低于上海和北京等顶级城市,已成为电商争夺的战场。位于香港的零售业分析机构Coresight Research研究员黄伊莲(音)表示,快手用户里有超过85%在小城市生活。

但市场分析机构Agency China的研究和战略经理迈克尔•诺里斯表示,服务费下调意味着“快手的抽成,也就是商家销售产品收取的佣金与其他平台相比相当低。”

虽然快手收取的费用不到通过该平台销售商品总量的1%,但由于直播电商仍是年轻且竞争激烈的市场,快手似乎更重视争取广泛的用户基础,而不是赚钱。

诺里斯说,随着时间推移,快手抽成可能会上升,就像其他科技公司实现规模效应后提高收费一样。“有些投资者认为快手电商业务可走高,就会比较注重类似商业模式,”诺里斯说。

底线

多元化的收入来源也可帮助快手防范突如其来的监管。随着中国对认定“低俗”的内容加强监管,通过销售虚拟“打赏”礼品获取大部分收入的常规直播很容易受到频繁打击。

最近,政府禁止了“吃播”,即用户看主播直播吃东西。去年当局就开始批评吃播视频,称暴饮暴食直播诱发食物浪费。据报道,快手的应对方式是在吃播视频下添加警告标签,鼓励消费者“节约食物,合理饮食”。

不过,监管机构对直播电商的审查也在加强,因为“行业里出现一些不择手段的做法,”诺里斯说,他指的是有些主播夸大销售数字的现象。

直播还有其他困难要克服。

本周一,代表艺术家利益的国有机构中国音像著作权集体管理协会威胁称要起诉快手侵犯版权,理由是快手上有超过1.5亿条未经许可使用的歌曲视频。

不过,监管问题似乎并未影响散户投资者的热情。2月5日,快手登陆港股,开盘价为338港元,截至今日收盘,快手股票上涨160.87%,报300港元每股,总市值达12324.58亿港元(约1600亿美元),成为中国互联网第五大上市公司。

如果蚂蚁集团成功上市,可能已筹集到345亿美元。但随着蚂蚁取消上市,快手的上市案成为了2019年Uber上市以来规模最大的互联网公司上市案

译者:夏林

A grey-haired woman in a purple sweater sifts through swathes of bright orange sweet potato stems drying in the sun, the craggy green mountains of China's Zhejiang province looming behind her. Chickens cluck and birds chirp in the background.

"The tastes of my childhood," says the caption. At the bottom of the video is a small yellow shopping cart icon and the words, “farmhouse sweet potato stems 500g.” One click later, viewers can purchase half a kilo of the delicacy displayed in the video for $3. They can also buy a packet of green tea for $13, or, for $21, a jar of homemade loquat honey.

This is 'Wang Wei’s miscellanies of mountain living,' an account run by a man who goes by Wang Wei and documents the rural idyll of his family's village near the city of Lishui in Zhejiang. The account has 445,000 followers on Kuaishou, a Chinese short-video app gearing up for a $5.4 billion IPO in Hong Kong on Friday that is expected to earn the 10-year-old app a valuation of around $60 billion.

Kuaishou is popular with users in rural areas and lower-tier cities, offering small merchants like Wang a platform to share their daily routines and sell their wares. Wang has sold 769 items on his store and uses Kuaishou to promote mountain tours and village homestay experiences.

Kuaishou's penetration outside of China's biggest metropolises is a draw for investors; so is the potential to convert more of its 300 million daily users into active consumers. But a lingering unknown is how Kuaishou can rake in more revenue from the billions of dollars of goods livestreamers like Wang sell.

Short stories

In 2011, Cheng Yixiao, a former engineer at HP, created an app tailor-made for sharing GIFs—the short, animated images that dominated the Internet in the early 2010s. Cheng called the app GIF Kuaishou, or fast hand in English. But in 2013, former Google engineer Su Hua joined the venture and helped refashion Kuaishou as a short-video app, and the "GIF" aspect disappeared from Kuaishou's name and its platform.

The company draws a straight line between its earliest iteration and its current form, claiming in its Hong Kong stock exchange filing application that GIFs “are in essence, the earliest form of short videos.” Naturally then, longform videos followed short videos, and in 2016, Kuaishou introduced livestreaming to its content lineup.

Livestreaming opened a new revenue channel for Kuaishou. The app started selling users virtual gifts—icons and emojis—that they could then send to their favorite individual livestreamers as a “tip.” When a viewer tips a broadcaster, the icon is displayed across the screen and the broadcaster often responds by name-checking the fan who sent it.

In Wang's most recent livestream, which ran for nearly five hours, he wanders around his village, alternately chatting to passersby and responding to livestream viewers' questions and comments. "Thanks for your support, friends!" he says as he ascends a set of stone steps. At another point, in front of a copse of trees, he laughs reading one comment telling him to show himself in the livestream and refuses to do so, protesting, "I'm not good looking!"

In 2017, Kuaishou made over 90% of its revenue from selling tips and, according to the company prospectus, “virtual gifting” is still the app’s greatest revenue generator, accounting for 62% of revenue earned in the first nine months of 2020. Kuaishou’s second-largest money maker is advertising, accounting for 33% of company revenues in the same period.

E-commerce is a less prominent line on Kuaishou’s books, contributing just 5% of revenue in the first nine months of 2020, or roughly $315 million. But that doesn't mean Kuaishou is a small player in China's booming livestream e-commerce scene. In fact, since Kuaishou launched its e-commerce service in 2018, the gross merchandise value (GMV) of goods sold through the app has ballooned from $9 billion in 2019 to $50 billion in 2020, making Kuaishou the second largest livestream e-commerce platform in China by GMV. What's keeping livestreaming e-commerce from contributing more to Kuaishou's bottom line is the app's ultra-low service fees.

Buy buy buy

Alibaba-owned shopping website Taobao became the first platform in China to offer livestream e-commerce—in which Internet influencers use their clout to promote brands and sell merchandise through livestream broadcasts—when it launched Taobao Live in 2016. Kuaishou and Douyin, TikTok's sister app in China, jumped on the trend two years later, but livestream e-commerce in China had its breakout moment in 2019 when Alibaba integrated the model into its massive Singles Day shopping festival.

According to Chinese e-commerce research firm 100EC, Taobao Live remains the dominant player in livestream e-commerce, accounting for over half of the roughly $158 billion in GMV sold through livestream e-commerce in 2020. Kuaishou is the second largest platform, accounting for 21% of total GMV.

“[M]onetizing their user base is kind of turning [Kauishou] into a real social-commerce platform, and it’s exceptional,” says Alexander Shapiro, head of strategy for Beijing-based branding agency PBB Creative. According to Beijing-based tech research firm EqualOcean, Kuaishou has the most active users and the highest user retention rate in China’s competitive short-video industry, making Kuaishou perhaps the most “social” e-commerce app among its competitors.

But Kuaishou ranks lower than its rivals when it comes to the service fees it charges for goods sold on its platform.

Kuaishou made it easier for small-scale sellers to operate on the platform by lowering service fees for farmers at the start of the pandemic. It also implemented a decentralized content algorithm that pushes less popular user videos onto featured pages for more exposure.

Those tactics have helped Kuaishou gain traction in China's smaller cities and rural regions, which have become e-commerce battlegrounds since they are less saturated than top-tier hubs like Shanghai and Beijing. In fact, over 85% of Kuaishou’s user base live in lower-tier cities, according to Eliam Huang, a Hong Kong-based researcher at retail analyst Coresight Research.

But reduced service fees mean “Kuaishou’s take rate—or the amount of commission it charges merchants for selling through its app—is quite low compared to the other platforms,” says Michael Norris, research and strategy manager at market analyst Agency China.

The app receives less than 1% of the total GMV sold through its app, but, with livestream e-commerce still a young and competitive market, Kuaishou seems more focused on building a broad user base than on making money.

Norris says it's likely Kuaishou's take rates will increase over time, just as other tech companies have raised fees after achieving scale. "Investors who see upside in Kuaishou's e-commerce offering will be looking for a similar pattern," Norris says.

Bottom line

Diversifying its revenue streams could also help Kuaishou guard its business against sudden regulation. Regular livestreaming—the medium through which Kuaishou makes most of its revenue, by selling virtual 'tips'—is susceptible to frequent crackdowns as Beijing polices what it considers “vulgar” content.

More recently, Beijing discouraged mukbang livestreams, where viewers watch livestreamers eat. Authorities began to criticize mukbang videos last year, lamenting that the binge-eating streams encouraged food waste. Kuaishou reportedly responded by adding warning labels under mukbang videos, encouraging consumers to “save food, eat properly.”

But regulatory scrutiny of livestream e-commerce is increasing too, as “a number of unscrupulous practices have emerged in the industry,” says Norris, citing influencers who inflate sales figures.

Livestreaming has other pitfalls to contend with too.

On Monday, the China Audio-Video Copyright Association (CAVCA)—a state-backed organization that represents artists—threatened to sue Kuaishou for copyright infringement, claiming the app hosts over 150 million videos that feature unlicensed songs.

Retail investors seem unperturbed by the crackdowns, however, and have poured $302 billion into Kuaishou's share subscriptions—leaving its IPO allotment for retail investors 1,200 times oversubscribed.

Had the Ant IPO gone through, the firm would have likely raised $34.5 billion. But with the Ant IPO scrapped, Kuaishou’s $5.4 billion IPO Friday is now in line to be the biggest Internet sector IPO since Uber went public in 2019.

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