我们调查了1300多位全球高管，他们在这几个问题上分歧巨大

Already several months into the pandemic in June of 2020, The Conference Board along with Fortune China surveyed more than 1,300 CEOs and C-Suite executives globally, including 107 CEOs in China, and asked them to evaluate what they see as the most significant long-term impacts of the global pandemic on their organizations, business, and society.

Is There Light at the End of the COVID-19 Tunnel?

When it comes to the speed of a regional economic recovery, CEOs in China are, if anything, optimists. According to a new survey by The Conference Board and Fortune China, some 64 percent of CEOs in China are expecting either a rapid V-shaped recovery, with strong growth returning by the end of the third quarter, or a slightly more prolonged U-shaped recovery with growth resuming by the end of the fourth quarter. In line with their general optimism about the speed of economic recovery, some 40 percent of CEOs in China see revenue being restored to pre-pandemic levels before the end of 2020. The picture looks very different in other parts of the world. Just 17 percent of CEOs in Europe and 12 percent in the U.S. agree with that revenue scenario. Overall, a quick V-shaped recovery seems all but impossible for the vast majority of CEOs outside China.

CEOs in China envisage a host of long-term impacts to their organizations, business, and society that they believe will become permanent legacies of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within their organizations, they see an acceleration of digital transformation efforts, evolving customer buying preferences causing a rethink of current business models, an increased emphasis on cost controls, and a redefinition of how work will get done as the most pronounced long-term impacts.

On the societal front, they also expect governments to increase investment in public goods and services to shore up the country’s increasingly overburdened social safety net as well as improvements in healthcare systems, especially as they relate to future pandemics, as the “silver lining” long-term legacies of COVID-19. Almost half see society’s trust in capitalism and market economies diminishing over the long-haul as a result of the pandemic.

The Long-Term Legacies of COVID-19—Opportunities and Challenges

The breakneck speed with which Chinese consumers are switching to online consumption and digital payment methods has arguably only increased as a result of COVID-19. Many of these behavioral changes will be permanent. In the view of local CEOs, speeding up the pace of digital transformation and a remake of current business models to better reflect changing consumer buying behaviors are two of the most important long-term impacts of COVID-19 faced by their organizations. The challenge however is accomplishing these large-scale organizational changes while reducing budgets and focusing on cost containment—another expected long-term impact of the pandemic and ensuing global recession. The danger in a slowing economy is succumbing to the temptation to skimp on both time and resource investment in the digital future to boost short-term results, jeopardizing future competitiveness. No one said leading in the post COVID-19 world would be easy. Interestingly, another long-term impact foreseen by CEOs in China is a stronger interest in increasing external collaboration with non-traditional partners, including those in related or complementary sectors, universities, think tanks, startups, and government. If anything, this pandemic is a stark reminder that the greatest challenges business and society are facing today cannot be solved in isolation. Breaking down an internal insular culture to embrace non-conventional partners can create a business ecosystem that drives innovation outcomes which far exceed the scope of what any single organization can achieve, especially as they seek to digitally transform their organizations and remake business models.

Redefining How Work Gets Done

The number one long-term outcome of COVID-19 in the human capital space, according to CEOs globally, is an expected increase in the number of employees working remotely on a permanent basis. While a sizable share of CEOs in China also expect this to be a hallmark of the post-pandemic workplace, they cite the creation of agile project teams as by far the most likely long-term human capital outcome of the pandemic—which clearly aligns with their efforts at digital transformation. Also, number two on their list: moving skills training online—another step towards becoming a truly digitally transformed organization. Greater flexibility in employee work policies and work hours is a top three expected legacy of COVID-19 by both CEOs in China and globally.

Warning: Is the Mental Well-Being of Employees High Enough on CEO Priority Lists?

Leaders and managers cannot fix all the unprecedented challenges arising from COVID-19, but they can provide personal support and assurance to their team members to help reduce isolation and anxiety and improve performance. For those working remotely, the thought of returning to a physical workplace, and the public commute required to get there in China’s megacities, is a major psychological step. Besides heightened general stress levels, financial stress has been aggravated by the pandemic—many companies in embattled industries had to lay off workers or reduce salaries. . As organizations prioritize protecting employees’ physical health as they return to the workplace, mental, emotional, and financial wellbeing should not be overlooked. Even before COVID-19, and despite prevailing social stigma and low recognition rates, mental health has received much wider public attention, especially among China’s younger urbanites. However, less than 14 percent of CEOs globally and only 12 percent in China cite devote more resources to mental health support/well-being for employees as an important long-term impact of COVID-19. On their list of priorities CEOs globally rank this issue ninth overall (it is tenth in China), however HR Executives globally have it considerably higher on their lists at number four. Any initiatives targeted for different types of wellbeing in the relatively early stages of the pandemic should not be considered as temporary measures but remain as an ongoing focus of employee benefits programs. Here, again, digitally driven solutions can and should be a key focus.

Silver Linings: Societies will invest more in social safety nets and pay more attention to public health issues

Among the most likely long-term societal impacts of the pandemic, according to Chinese CEOs, is increased government investment in bolstering social safety nets and improvements to national healthcare systems —two outcomes that would go a long way in mitigating the pain of future pandemics and improve resilience. . In response to the immediate COVID-19 outbreak, the central government stepped in with massive funding to support the rapid increase of healthcare capacity and supply provision. But despite this rapid scale-up, COVID-19 also re-exposed the acute, and much deeper running disparities in level, quality, and access to healthcare and social safety provisions across China. Notwithstanding heightened government funding constraints resulting from the economic downturn, pressure to address these challenges and to make systemic, sustainable improvements is high. Another likely long-term impact of the pandemic identified by CEOs is a commitment to lead their companies for the benefit of all stakeholders – customers, employees, suppliers, communities, and shareholders. Reminding employees of the compelling vision, mission, and values of the organization is especially important during challenging and stressful times. A total of 64 percent of CEOs globally identify this as a highly likely long-term impact—and 58 percent in China will seek to redefine their company’s mission. The corporate citizenship aspect of doing business has been gaining in attention among large Chinese businesses in recent years, and this trend is likely to accelerate further as a result of COVID-19.

While globally almost half of CEOs believe the pandemic will leave behind a less globalized economic environment, fewer CEOs in China believe that to be the case. The strongest sentiment around decreasing globalization is found among European CEOs (60 percent). Just 45 percent of Chinese CEOs, the smallest percentage of any country or region globally, see decreasing globalization resulting from the pandemic.

Is “the demise of cities” being overhyped?

Despite the move to more remote work and the short-term reality that fewer people, including tourists, are coming to city centers to work, shop, be entertained, or consume other services, the notion that people will permanently abandon more densely packed cities for less populated regions ranks among the less likely scenarios to emerge post-pandemic, according to C-suite executives globally. Just 39 percent of CEOs globally cite this as a highly likely long-term outcome of the pandemic. There are regional differences: just 23 percent of CEOs in China, where urbanization is still considered a crucial means to alleviate poverty and spur economic growth and productivity, see abandonment of cities as a likely long-term outcome compared to 60 percent of C-suite executives in Japan and 50 percent in the United States (where urbanization is much further advanced than in China).

“The Conference Board C-Suite Challenge® 2020: COVID-19 Recovery: What Comes Next”。