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Arm首席执行官:未来五年内,工厂大量工作将被机器人取代

Beatrice Nolan
2025-12-11

Arm首席执行官雷内·哈斯(Rene Haas)表示,物理人工智能有望在未来五到十年内重塑制造业格局。

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图片来源:Fortune

Arm首席执行官雷内·哈斯预测,未来五到十年内,人工智能驱动的人形机器人将承担大量工厂生产工作,从而重塑制造业格局。

哈斯指出,推动人形机器人进驻工厂的关键因素,在于其相较于现有机械臂及其他自动化设备所具备的优势。传统工业机器人是为单一任务设计的专用机器,其软硬件均针对特定功能进行了优化。通用型人形机器人则搭载了功能日趋成熟的物理人工智能技术,能适应现实环境,快速调整指令即可执行不同任务。

“我认为未来五年内,工厂大量工作将被机器人取代——部分原因在于这些物理人工智能机器人可通过重新编程执行多样化任务。”哈斯周一在旧金山举行的《财富》人工智能头脑风暴大会上表示。

他表示:“传统工业机器人存在局限:比如一台负责物料抓取与放置的设备,软硬件均只针对单一任务进行优化,功能单一。依托全人工智能软件系统的通用型人形机器人,能通过实践不断学习,从而完全替代大批工厂工人。”

随着人工智能与机器人在企业的广泛应用,相关从业者的就业去向以及整体就业市场的发展趋势,正引发众多政策制定者与行业观察人士的担忧。各方提出了包括工人技能再培训、推行全民基本收入制度在内的多项解决方案,相关讨论仍在进行中。

哈斯并未就就业问题展开详细论述,但他指出,物理人工智能的广泛应用将重塑全球制造业格局。实现大量工厂工作自动化,有望推动全球产业竞争朝着更为均衡的方向发展。“物理人工智能将成为强大的赋能工具。”他说道。

哈斯还以Waymo自动驾驶汽车为例,指出这是物理人工智能潜力的早期体现。

他表示下一代自动驾驶系统或可进一步精简硬件配置。当前自动驾驶汽车需依靠雷达与摄像头等设备开展环境监测,而未来搭载更先进人工智能模型的系统,有望减少传感器数量,凭借人工智能算法而非海量数据采集实现决策。

半导体供应链存在“诸多单点故障风险”

Arm公司并不涉足芯片生产与销售,其核心业务是为高通、苹果等企业设计处理器架构,并提供相关技术授权。哈斯指出,基于Arm架构设计的芯片应用场景极为广泛,从智能手机、冰箱等消费电子产品,到汽车、服务器等工业设备。普通人随身携带或居家使用的设备里,往往内置50至100颗基于Arm架构芯片。

Arm芯片的普及度与市场占有率,印证了其在能效与性能方面的卓越表现,也正是凭借这些优势,其芯片设计方案广受青睐。但与此同时,这也给全球半导体供应链带来了风险。

当被问及供应链脆弱性问题时,哈斯承认该行业存在市场高度集中现象,并指出多家大型企业各自掌控着半导体供应链的关键环节:“半导体供应链存在诸多单点故障风险。台积电(TSMC)的地缘政治位置显然备受关注。此外,全球仅有ASML一家公司能提供这些晶圆厂所需的精密设备。”

过去几年,新冠疫情暴露了半导体供应链的部分薄弱环节——芯片短缺曾导致消费者需要等待数周才能拿到新车钥匙。哈斯表示,那场危机“正是半导体供应链存在诸多单点故障风险的必然结果”。

哈斯指出,整个半导体行业都在“学习适应”这种风险高度集中的现状。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

Arm首席执行官雷内·哈斯预测,未来五到十年内,人工智能驱动的人形机器人将承担大量工厂生产工作,从而重塑制造业格局。

哈斯指出,推动人形机器人进驻工厂的关键因素,在于其相较于现有机械臂及其他自动化设备所具备的优势。传统工业机器人是为单一任务设计的专用机器,其软硬件均针对特定功能进行了优化。通用型人形机器人则搭载了功能日趋成熟的物理人工智能技术,能适应现实环境,快速调整指令即可执行不同任务。

“我认为未来五年内,工厂大量工作将被机器人取代——部分原因在于这些物理人工智能机器人可通过重新编程执行多样化任务。”哈斯周一在旧金山举行的《财富》人工智能头脑风暴大会上表示。

他表示:“传统工业机器人存在局限:比如一台负责物料抓取与放置的设备,软硬件均只针对单一任务进行优化,功能单一。依托全人工智能软件系统的通用型人形机器人,能通过实践不断学习,从而完全替代大批工厂工人。”

随着人工智能与机器人在企业的广泛应用,相关从业者的就业去向以及整体就业市场的发展趋势,正引发众多政策制定者与行业观察人士的担忧。各方提出了包括工人技能再培训、推行全民基本收入制度在内的多项解决方案,相关讨论仍在进行中。

哈斯并未就就业问题展开详细论述,但他指出,物理人工智能的广泛应用将重塑全球制造业格局。实现大量工厂工作自动化,有望推动全球产业竞争朝着更为均衡的方向发展。“物理人工智能将成为强大的赋能工具。”他说道。

哈斯还以Waymo自动驾驶汽车为例,指出这是物理人工智能潜力的早期体现。

他表示下一代自动驾驶系统或可进一步精简硬件配置。当前自动驾驶汽车需依靠雷达与摄像头等设备开展环境监测,而未来搭载更先进人工智能模型的系统,有望减少传感器数量,凭借人工智能算法而非海量数据采集实现决策。

半导体供应链存在“诸多单点故障风险”

Arm公司并不涉足芯片生产与销售,其核心业务是为高通、苹果等企业设计处理器架构,并提供相关技术授权。哈斯指出,基于Arm架构设计的芯片应用场景极为广泛,从智能手机、冰箱等消费电子产品,到汽车、服务器等工业设备。普通人随身携带或居家使用的设备里,往往内置50至100颗基于Arm架构芯片。

Arm芯片的普及度与市场占有率,印证了其在能效与性能方面的卓越表现,也正是凭借这些优势,其芯片设计方案广受青睐。但与此同时,这也给全球半导体供应链带来了风险。

当被问及供应链脆弱性问题时,哈斯承认该行业存在市场高度集中现象,并指出多家大型企业各自掌控着半导体供应链的关键环节:“半导体供应链存在诸多单点故障风险。台积电(TSMC)的地缘政治位置显然备受关注。此外,全球仅有ASML一家公司能提供这些晶圆厂所需的精密设备。”

过去几年,新冠疫情暴露了半导体供应链的部分薄弱环节——芯片短缺曾导致消费者需要等待数周才能拿到新车钥匙。哈斯表示,那场危机“正是半导体供应链存在诸多单点故障风险的必然结果”。

哈斯指出,整个半导体行业都在“学习适应”这种风险高度集中的现状。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

AI-powered humanoid robots could take over large sections of factory work within the next five to 10 years, transforming the manufacturing industry, predicts Arm CEO Rene Haas.

One of the key forces pushing humanoid robots into factories is their advantage over the robotic arms and other automation machinery in use today, Haas said. Traditional factory robots are purpose-built machines designed for a single task, with both hardware and software optimized for that specific function. General purpose humanoid robots by contrast, combined with increasingly sophisticated “physical AI” that helps navigate the real world, will be able to take on different jobs on the fly with quick modifications to their instructions.

“I think in the next five years, you’re going to see large sections of factory work replaced by robots—and part of the reason for that is that these physical AI robots can be reprogrammed into different tasks,” Haas said at Fortune Brainstorm AI in San Francisco on Monday.

“One of the issues you’d had with factory robots in the past is that if it was a pick and place machine for a factory, they’re just optimized for one task—the software was for one task, the hardware is for one task. Now, if you design a general-purpose humanoid that the software is all AI and it learns by doing, it’s going to completely replace a large set of factory workers,” he said.

What happens to those workers and the broader job market as AI and robots proliferate in businesses is a growing concern among many policymakers and industry observers, with ideas ranging from worker re-skilling to universal basic income among the options under debate.

Haas did not specifically address the jobs issue, but suggested that widespread physical AI adoption could reshape global manufacturing dynamics, potentially helping to level the global competitive playing field by automating a large amount of factory work. “Physical AI will be a great enabler,” he said.

Haas also pointed to Waymo’s autonomous vehicles as an early indicator of physical AI’s potential.

He said the next generation of autonomous systems may require even less hardware. While current self-driving cars are fitted with radar and cameras surveying their surroundings, future iterations using more advanced AI models could operate with fewer sensors—relying on artificial intelligence rather than exhaustive data collection to make decisions.

The semiconductor supply chain has ‘many single points of failure’

Arm, which does not manufacture or sell its own chips, designs and licenses the architecture used in processors made by companies including Qualcomm and Apple. Chips based on Arm’s designs are used in everything from smartphones and refrigerators to cars and servers, and most people use between 50 to 100 Arm chips on their person or in their homes, Haas said.

That widespread use and market share is a testament to the energy efficiency and performance that have made Arm’s chip design so popular. But it also raises risks to the semiconductor supply chain.

Asked about this vulnerability, Haas acknowledged the extreme market concentration within the industry, and noted that several large companies each control vital parts of the semiconductor supply chain: “The semiconductor supply chain has many single points of failure. There’s TSMC, which is in a very obviously interesting part of the world geopolitically. There is also a very sophisticated device that has to go into these fabs that comes from one company on the planet … called ASML.”

In the past few years, the COVID-19 pandemic exposed some of these supply-chain fragilities when chip shortages left consumers unable to get key fobs for new cars for weeks. That crisis, Haas said, was “just a function of the semiconductor supply chain that has many single points of failure.”

Haas said the entire industry is “learning to live with“ the concentration of risk.

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