
人工智能的长期影响是硅谷争论最激烈的话题之一。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)预测,所有工作都会发生改变,并催生每周四天工作制。其他科技巨头的预判更为激进:比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates)表示,人类或许很快就无需处理“绝大多数事务”,埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)认为,在“不到20年内”,绝大多数人甚至将彻底告别工作。
被誉为“人工智能教父”的英国计算机科学家杰弗里·辛顿(Geoffrey Hinton)表示,虽然这些预测听起来颇为偏激,却绝非空穴来风,甚至极有可能成为现实。他警告称,这场变革可能引发全面经济重组,导致数百万劳动者被时代淘汰。
“在很多人看来,人工智能极有可能引发大规模失业。”辛顿近期在乔治敦大学与佛蒙特州独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)的对话中表示。
“若问及这些机构投入数据中心和芯片的约万亿美元从何而来……其中一个主要资金来源便是出售人工智能产品,这类产品能以更低成本完成人类劳动者的工作。由此可见,这些企业确实在押注人工智能将大规模替代劳动力。”
辛顿对大型科技公司优先级错位的现象愈发直言不讳。他近日向《财富》杂志坦言,行业发展的驱动力并非科学突破,而是短期盈利诉求,这一导向正促使廉价人工智能系统加速替代人类劳动力。
在人工智能经济模式面临新一轮审视之际,他发出了相关警告。据汇丰银行(HSBC)估算,ChatGPT开发商OpenAI至少要到2030年才能实现盈利,且可能需要超过2070亿美元资金支持其发展。
人工智能的未来笼罩在战争迷雾之中
从人工智能领域的圈内人士到直言不讳的批评者,辛顿的身份转变凸显了他参与创造的这项技术所蕴含的巨大风险。2023年他辞去谷歌职务后,开始更自由地谈论人工智能风险,并成为最著名的怀疑论者之一。去年,他凭借机器学习领域的开创性研究斩获诺贝尔奖。
他也承认,正如许多科技领袖所预测的那样,人工智能将创造新就业岗位。但他补充道,预计新增岗位数量远不及被淘汰的岗位数量。即便如此,他仍告诫称,人们应对所有预测——包括他本人的预测——持高度质疑态度。
“试图预测人工智能的未来难度极大,”他告诉桑德斯,"这有点像在雾中开车。你能看清100码之内的路况,但200码外则一片模糊。我们或许能看清未来一两年的趋势,但十年之后的变局,谁也无法预料。”
然而,有一点是明确的:人工智能不会消失。专家表示,那些能够适应变革、利用技术提升自身技能的劳动者,最有可能在即将到来的变革中站稳脚跟。
伯尼·桑德斯警告:1亿个工作岗位面临风险
桑德斯试图量化这一风险的规模。在10月发布的一份报告中(部分基于ChatGPT生成的估算数据),他警告称,技术自动化可能导致美国近1亿个岗位消失。快餐业、客服和体力劳动者面临的风险最高,但会计、软件开发和护理等白领岗位也可能面临大幅裁员。
桑德斯在福克斯新闻的专栏文章中写道:“这不仅是经济问题。工作——无论是清洁工还是脑外科医生——是人类存在不可或缺的重要部分。绝大多数人都渴望成为推动社会进步的中坚力量,为所在社区贡献自身价值。当人类生活中这一至关重要的部分被抽离,会发生什么?”
弗吉尼亚州民主党参议员马克·沃纳(Mark Warner)发出类似警告,指出年轻人将首当其冲,且所受冲击最为严重——未来两到三年内,应届大学毕业生失业率可能飙升至25%。
沃纳对美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)表示,“回顾过往,面对社交媒体带来的诸多问题,我们始终未采取有效行动。若在人工智能议题上仍延续此种不作为,不设任何防线,我认为我们终将追悔莫及。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
人工智能的长期影响是硅谷争论最激烈的话题之一。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)预测,所有工作都会发生改变,并催生每周四天工作制。其他科技巨头的预判更为激进:比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates)表示,人类或许很快就无需处理“绝大多数事务”,埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)认为,在“不到20年内”,绝大多数人甚至将彻底告别工作。
被誉为“人工智能教父”的英国计算机科学家杰弗里·辛顿(Geoffrey Hinton)表示,虽然这些预测听起来颇为偏激,却绝非空穴来风,甚至极有可能成为现实。他警告称,这场变革可能引发全面经济重组,导致数百万劳动者被时代淘汰。
“在很多人看来,人工智能极有可能引发大规模失业。”辛顿近期在乔治敦大学与佛蒙特州独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)的对话中表示。
“若问及这些机构投入数据中心和芯片的约万亿美元从何而来……其中一个主要资金来源便是出售人工智能产品,这类产品能以更低成本完成人类劳动者的工作。由此可见,这些企业确实在押注人工智能将大规模替代劳动力。”
辛顿对大型科技公司优先级错位的现象愈发直言不讳。他近日向《财富》杂志坦言,行业发展的驱动力并非科学突破,而是短期盈利诉求,这一导向正促使廉价人工智能系统加速替代人类劳动力。
在人工智能经济模式面临新一轮审视之际,他发出了相关警告。据汇丰银行(HSBC)估算,ChatGPT开发商OpenAI至少要到2030年才能实现盈利,且可能需要超过2070亿美元资金支持其发展。
人工智能的未来笼罩在战争迷雾之中
从人工智能领域的圈内人士到直言不讳的批评者,辛顿的身份转变凸显了他参与创造的这项技术所蕴含的巨大风险。2023年他辞去谷歌职务后,开始更自由地谈论人工智能风险,并成为最著名的怀疑论者之一。去年,他凭借机器学习领域的开创性研究斩获诺贝尔奖。
他也承认,正如许多科技领袖所预测的那样,人工智能将创造新就业岗位。但他补充道,预计新增岗位数量远不及被淘汰的岗位数量。即便如此,他仍告诫称,人们应对所有预测——包括他本人的预测——持高度质疑态度。
“试图预测人工智能的未来难度极大,”他告诉桑德斯,"这有点像在雾中开车。你能看清100码之内的路况,但200码外则一片模糊。我们或许能看清未来一两年的趋势,但十年之后的变局,谁也无法预料。”
然而,有一点是明确的:人工智能不会消失。专家表示,那些能够适应变革、利用技术提升自身技能的劳动者,最有可能在即将到来的变革中站稳脚跟。
伯尼·桑德斯警告:1亿个工作岗位面临风险
桑德斯试图量化这一风险的规模。在10月发布的一份报告中(部分基于ChatGPT生成的估算数据),他警告称,技术自动化可能导致美国近1亿个岗位消失。快餐业、客服和体力劳动者面临的风险最高,但会计、软件开发和护理等白领岗位也可能面临大幅裁员。
桑德斯在福克斯新闻的专栏文章中写道:“这不仅是经济问题。工作——无论是清洁工还是脑外科医生——是人类存在不可或缺的重要部分。绝大多数人都渴望成为推动社会进步的中坚力量,为所在社区贡献自身价值。当人类生活中这一至关重要的部分被抽离,会发生什么?”
弗吉尼亚州民主党参议员马克·沃纳(Mark Warner)发出类似警告,指出年轻人将首当其冲,且所受冲击最为严重——未来两到三年内,应届大学毕业生失业率可能飙升至25%。
沃纳对美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)表示,“回顾过往,面对社交媒体带来的诸多问题,我们始终未采取有效行动。若在人工智能议题上仍延续此种不作为,不设任何防线,我认为我们终将追悔莫及。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
The long-term impact of artificial intelligence is one of the most hotly debated topics in Silicon Valley. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang predicts that every job will be transformed—and likely lead to a 4-day workweek. Other tech titans go even further: Bill Gates says humans may soon not be needed “for most things,” and Elon Musk believes most humans won’t have to work at all in “less than 20 years.”
While those predictions might sound extreme, they’re not just plausible, they’re likely, said Geoffrey Hinton—the British computer scientist widely known as the “Godfather of AI.” The transition, he warned, could trigger a sweeping economic reshuffling that leaves millions of workers behind.
“It seems very likely to a large number of people that we will get massive unemployment caused by AI,” Hinton said in a recent discussion with Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) at Georgetown University.
“And if you ask where are these guys going to get the roughly trillion dollars they’re investing in data centers and chips… one of the main sources of money is going to be by selling people AI that will do the work of workers much cheaper. And so these guys are really betting on AI replacing a lot of workers.”
Hinton has grown increasingly vocal about what he sees as Big Tech’s misplaced priorities. The industry, he recently told Fortune, is driven less by scientific progress than by short-term profits—fueling a push to replace human workers with cheaper AI systems.
His warnings come as the economics of AI face new scrutiny. OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, isn’t expected to turn a profit until at least 2030 and may need more than $207 billion to support its growth, according to HSBC estimations.
The future of AI is behind a fog of war
Hinton’s journey from AI insider to outspoken critic underscores the high stakes of the technology he helped create. After quitting his Google job in 2023 to speak more freely about AI’s risks, he has become one of the most prominent skeptics. Last year, his pioneering work in machine learning earned him the Nobel Prize.
He also acknowledged that AI will create new jobs, as many tech leaders predict. But he added that he does not expect the number of new roles to come close to the number eliminated. Even so, he cautioned that all predictions—including his own—should be treated with heavy skepticism.
“Trying to predict the future of it is going to be very difficult,” he told Sanders. “It’s a bit like when you drive in fog. You can see clearly for 100 yards and at 200 yards you can see nothing. Well, we can see clearly for a year or two, but 10 years out, we have no idea what’s going to happen.”
What is clear, however, is that AI isn’t going away, and experts say workers who adapt—and use the technology to amplify their skills—will stand the best chance of navigating the coming upheaval.
100 million jobs are at risk, Bernie Sanders warns
Sanders has attempted to quantify the stakes. In a report released in October—based partly on estimates generated by ChatGPT—he warned that nearly 100 million U.S. jobs could be displaced by automation. Workers in fast food, customer service, and manual labor face some of the highest risks, but white-collar roles in accounting, software development, and nursing could also see significant cuts.
“It’s not just economics,” Sanders wrote in an op-ed for Fox News. “Work, whether being a janitor or a brain surgeon, is an integral part of being human. The vast majority of people want to be productive members of society and contribute to their communities. What happens when that vital aspect of human existence is removed from our lives?”
Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) has raised similar alarms, warning that the disruption could hit young people first and hardest—potentially driving unemployment among recent college graduates to as high as 25% in the next two to three years.
“Let’s look at the fact we never did anything on social media,” Warner told CNBC. “If we make that same response on AI and don’t put guardrails, I think we will come to rue that day.”