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全球职位空缺异常严重,劳动力短缺难以缓解

全球职位空缺异常严重,劳动力短缺难以缓解

MIGLĖ PETRAUSKAITĖ AND ERWIN R. TIONGSON 2024-04-15
全球正在经历人口结构转型,这意味着在可预见的未来,劳动力市场仍相当紧张。

图片来源:JUSTIN SULLIVAN - GETTY IMAGES

尽管全球经济增长放缓,信贷市场收紧,但世界各地的职位空缺仍然居高不下或不断上升。世界各国已采取措施解决这些不寻常的员工短缺问题,但零敲碎打的解决方案忽视了全球劳动力市场的转型、自大流行病以来发生的根本性变化以及全球人口结构转型的后果。

自2022年以来,全球经济增长放缓,各种冲击和冲突破坏全球经济发展,并持续带来威胁。随着各地信贷条件收紧,企业仍在通胀中挣扎,预计未来几年失业率将稳步上升。

然而,全球职位空缺(企业急于填补的空缺职位)的数量仍然出人意料地居高不下,甚至接近历史最高水平。即使在近几个月来职位空缺呈下降趋势的市场,如澳大利亚、加拿大、丹麦、新加坡、英国和美国,职位空缺仍然异常之高,高于疫情前的平均水平。在其他国家,例如比利时、塞浦路斯、德国、希腊、拉脱维亚、立陶宛和西班牙,职位空缺率一直保持在高位或持续上升。

如果我们考虑到公司可能因为之前未能找到合格的员工而不愿发布新职位空缺,那么实际的职位空缺数量可能会更高。在德国,虽然登记的职位空缺数量约为70万个,但政府估计实际数字接近200万。

员工拥有的技能与雇主需要的技能不匹配,是填补职位空缺的一大障碍。现实情况是严峻的:尽管就业市场上机会不断涌现,但由于技能不匹配,即使在失业率居高不下或不断攀升的情况下,许多职位空缺仍无人填补。

技能短缺

在加拿大安大略省,制造业正在努力填补职位空缺,目前有超过18900个空缺职位,未来两年电动汽车行业即将出现超过7000个空缺职位。2022年底,澳大利亚也遇到了类似的情况,职位空缺超过了失业人数。在新加坡,大流行病后的劳动力市场的特点是现有工作岗位与劳动者技能不匹配,导致每一个失业者对应1.6个职位空缺。在整个欧洲,建筑行业长期以来面临的难以找到足够多的熟练工人的问题,因疫情后需求激增而加剧,这标志着一场更广泛的全球挑战。

熟练劳动力的严重短缺现已被视为经济增长的障碍。在德国,经济增长前景目前为0.7%,远低于2%的长期平均水平,部分原因是劳动力短缺。急于实现增长和抓住新市场机遇的企业发现自己因难以找到具备合适技能的工人而发展受限。现有工作岗位与求职者技能之间的差距不仅凸显了当前劳动力发展战略效率低下,也凸显了对教育和职业培训项目转型的迫切需求。各国的行业代表认为,这些项目必须迅速实现转变,以适应快速变化的市场需求。推动低碳技术发展和数字化发展步伐正在扩大对新专业技能的需求。

争相寻求解决方案

职位空缺和工人短缺的增加反映了数个潜在趋势。在经历了2020年的低迷之后,全球经济出现了强劲反弹,2021年和2022年分别增长了6.3%和3.4%,这反过来又刺激了就业岗位的增加。第二个原因可能与新冠肺炎疫情导致的移民潮减少有关。大流行病促使许多工人离开东道国,而移民系统也在努力解决签证办理延误的问题,结果造成了工人缺口。第三,工资停滞是一个长期存在的问题。例如,在澳大利亚,尽管工资有所增长,但却未能跟上不断上涨的生活成本。最后,具体的国情也发挥了作用,比如英国脱欧后面临的劳动力市场挑战。

对此,各国政府已开始采取措施,招聘更多的移民工人或将其身份合法化。去年年底,希腊通过了一项新立法,授予数千名无证移民居留权,条件是他们必须找到工作。德国高层官员甚至承认,如果没有移民劳工,德国就无法弥补日益扩大的劳动力缺口。德国已经实施了数项立法改革,旨在使德国对移民工人更具吸引力,包括简化入籍途径、加快签证办理速度以及在就业市场上承认外国学历。更多的国家可能会效仿。

此外,德国还在探索新的工作安排,如每周工作四天。在德国,自今年2月起,已有数十家公司开始试行每周四天工作制。他们认为,压缩工作周最终会提高员工的积极性和生产率,从而帮助缓解劳动力短缺问题。其他欧洲国家也在进行类似的试验。与此同时,至少在一个德国城市,上市公司正在招聘学生,以帮助缓解工人短缺问题。值得注意的是,美国一些州正在考虑放宽童工法,允许企业雇佣更多青少年,原因是移民政策被认为更具争议性。

全球人口结构转型

与此同时,经济放缓可能会暂时掩盖职位空缺增加的潜在趋势。以英国为例,持续的经济萎缩同时导致失业率上升和现有职位数量减少。同样,在丹麦,2023年底的经济衰退似乎导致了职位空缺的减少。随着这些经济体最终反弹,我们很可能会看到劳动力短缺和职位空缺再次反弹。

然而,单靠零敲碎打的措施并不能解决问题,因为全球正在进行长期的人口结构转型。在发达经济体中,由于人口老龄化,未填补的空缺职位将会增加。官方估计,到2035年,德国老龄化社会将缺少700万熟练工人。日本的劳动适龄人口在1998年达到顶峰,此后一直在稳步下降。美国正处于就业机会激增的边缘,预计到2030年将新增1190万个就业岗位,然而,尽管美国经济迫切需要工人,但国内仍将出现300万的劳动力缺口。

世界各地的人口都在加速老龄化,这一趋势即使在传统的劳动力输出国和低收入国家也未能幸免,非洲是唯一的例外。这一现实表明,针对这些传统移民输出国的更开放的移民政策——在当前的政治形势下,这一重大政策转变实际上是无法实现的——并不足以改变局势。中美洲国家目前的生育率低于更替水平,这与许多移民来源国和低收入国家将“未富先老”的担忧相呼应。为非洲移民工人进入高收入劳动力市场提供便利固然重要,但同样重要的是对他们的教育和培训进行投资,确保非洲工人充分利用海外机会。

危机中的劳动力

除了世界老龄化之外,大辞职潮也是真实存在的,自疫情爆发以来,许多工人离开了劳动力市场。在美国,在2021年和2022年,有5000万名工人离职,这一情况前所未有,反映出新冠肺炎疫情后人们对工作的不满情绪日益高涨。虽然最初被认为主要是出现在美国的趋势,但数据表明,这种普遍的不满情绪已经蔓延到世界其他地区。2022年法国的自愿辞职人数达到创纪录的270万,整个欧洲也出现了类似的趋势,但亚洲的辞职人数有所下降。在澳大利亚,有越来越多的迹象表明类似的工人不满情绪。即使在最近辞职率有所下降的美国,个人护理服务等某些行业的辞职率仍高于平均水平。

我们观察到的劳动力短缺现象在一定程度上可以追溯到新冠肺炎疫情的破坏性影响,包括“长新冠”的持续影响。在美国,不仅要悼念因病毒而失去生命的超过25万名劳动适龄人口,而且还发现劳动力持续减少,各年龄组退出就业的人数是原来的两倍多。移民社区受到的影响尤为严重,其新冠死亡率更高,进一步加剧了现有移民劳动力的减少。

疫情爆发后,人们的工作偏好发生了明显变化,越来越多的人要求减少工作时间、提高灵活性、更好地平衡工作与生活。在美国,相当多的雇员表示,辞职不是可行的选择,他们明确表达了对更灵活的工作条件、远程工作机会和实现工作与生活平衡的偏好,这也是疫情对工作场所规范影响所留下的持久传统。在新加坡,员工们愿意用薪酬来换取灵活性。因此,这一趋势,尤其是在年轻员工、高收入者和女性中,导致美国工作时间减少,进一步加剧了劳动力短缺。

职位空缺激增并不只是一种反常现象,它预示着一场席卷全球劳动力市场的深刻变革。这一转变不仅包括人口结构的转型,还包括后疫情时代工作偏好的变化。

现有的解决方案可能会短暂缓解情况,经济衰退可能会暂时掩盖这些挑战,但最终的解决方案将需要史无前例的全球合作。现在是时候采取大胆的、创造性的方法来调动多样化的劳动力资源了:利用非洲快速增长的劳动适龄人口,挖掘低收入国家年龄较大但仍具有生产力的工人的潜力,以及重新雇佣富裕国家的退休人员和带有不满情绪的年轻员工。

认识到我们面临的挑战的相互关联性至关重要。我们是全球单一劳动力市场的一部分。我们面临的问题是共同的,因此必须戮力同心,寻找解决方案。(财富中文网)

米格尔维·彼得拉斯凯特维(Miglė Petrauskaitė)是乌干达对外直接投资研究员,现任乌干达财政部高级经济学家。

埃尔温·R·琼森(Erwin R. Tiongson)是乔治敦大学(Georgetown University)全球人类发展项目的实践教授和副主任。

译者:中慧言-王芳

尽管全球经济增长放缓,信贷市场收紧,但世界各地的职位空缺仍然居高不下或不断上升。世界各国已采取措施解决这些不寻常的员工短缺问题,但零敲碎打的解决方案忽视了全球劳动力市场的转型、自大流行病以来发生的根本性变化以及全球人口结构转型的后果。

自2022年以来,全球经济增长放缓,各种冲击和冲突破坏全球经济发展,并持续带来威胁。随着各地信贷条件收紧,企业仍在通胀中挣扎,预计未来几年失业率将稳步上升。

然而,全球职位空缺(企业急于填补的空缺职位)的数量仍然出人意料地居高不下,甚至接近历史最高水平。即使在近几个月来职位空缺呈下降趋势的市场,如澳大利亚、加拿大、丹麦、新加坡、英国和美国,职位空缺仍然异常之高,高于疫情前的平均水平。在其他国家,例如比利时、塞浦路斯、德国、希腊、拉脱维亚、立陶宛和西班牙,职位空缺率一直保持在高位或持续上升。

如果我们考虑到公司可能因为之前未能找到合格的员工而不愿发布新职位空缺,那么实际的职位空缺数量可能会更高。在德国,虽然登记的职位空缺数量约为70万个,但政府估计实际数字接近200万。

员工拥有的技能与雇主需要的技能不匹配,是填补职位空缺的一大障碍。现实情况是严峻的:尽管就业市场上机会不断涌现,但由于技能不匹配,即使在失业率居高不下或不断攀升的情况下,许多职位空缺仍无人填补。

技能短缺

在加拿大安大略省,制造业正在努力填补职位空缺,目前有超过18900个空缺职位,未来两年电动汽车行业即将出现超过7000个空缺职位。2022年底,澳大利亚也遇到了类似的情况,职位空缺超过了失业人数。在新加坡,大流行病后的劳动力市场的特点是现有工作岗位与劳动者技能不匹配,导致每一个失业者对应1.6个职位空缺。在整个欧洲,建筑行业长期以来面临的难以找到足够多的熟练工人的问题,因疫情后需求激增而加剧,这标志着一场更广泛的全球挑战。

熟练劳动力的严重短缺现已被视为经济增长的障碍。在德国,经济增长前景目前为0.7%,远低于2%的长期平均水平,部分原因是劳动力短缺。急于实现增长和抓住新市场机遇的企业发现自己因难以找到具备合适技能的工人而发展受限。现有工作岗位与求职者技能之间的差距不仅凸显了当前劳动力发展战略效率低下,也凸显了对教育和职业培训项目转型的迫切需求。各国的行业代表认为,这些项目必须迅速实现转变,以适应快速变化的市场需求。推动低碳技术发展和数字化发展步伐正在扩大对新专业技能的需求。

争相寻求解决方案

职位空缺和工人短缺的增加反映了数个潜在趋势。在经历了2020年的低迷之后,全球经济出现了强劲反弹,2021年和2022年分别增长了6.3%和3.4%,这反过来又刺激了就业岗位的增加。第二个原因可能与新冠肺炎疫情导致的移民潮减少有关。大流行病促使许多工人离开东道国,而移民系统也在努力解决签证办理延误的问题,结果造成了工人缺口。第三,工资停滞是一个长期存在的问题。例如,在澳大利亚,尽管工资有所增长,但却未能跟上不断上涨的生活成本。最后,具体的国情也发挥了作用,比如英国脱欧后面临的劳动力市场挑战。

对此,各国政府已开始采取措施,招聘更多的移民工人或将其身份合法化。去年年底,希腊通过了一项新立法,授予数千名无证移民居留权,条件是他们必须找到工作。德国高层官员甚至承认,如果没有移民劳工,德国就无法弥补日益扩大的劳动力缺口。德国已经实施了数项立法改革,旨在使德国对移民工人更具吸引力,包括简化入籍途径、加快签证办理速度以及在就业市场上承认外国学历。更多的国家可能会效仿。

此外,德国还在探索新的工作安排,如每周工作四天。在德国,自今年2月起,已有数十家公司开始试行每周四天工作制。他们认为,压缩工作周最终会提高员工的积极性和生产率,从而帮助缓解劳动力短缺问题。其他欧洲国家也在进行类似的试验。与此同时,至少在一个德国城市,上市公司正在招聘学生,以帮助缓解工人短缺问题。值得注意的是,美国一些州正在考虑放宽童工法,允许企业雇佣更多青少年,原因是移民政策被认为更具争议性。

全球人口结构转型

与此同时,经济放缓可能会暂时掩盖职位空缺增加的潜在趋势。以英国为例,持续的经济萎缩同时导致失业率上升和现有职位数量减少。同样,在丹麦,2023年底的经济衰退似乎导致了职位空缺的减少。随着这些经济体最终反弹,我们很可能会看到劳动力短缺和职位空缺再次反弹。

然而,单靠零敲碎打的措施并不能解决问题,因为全球正在进行长期的人口结构转型。在发达经济体中,由于人口老龄化,未填补的空缺职位将会增加。官方估计,到2035年,德国老龄化社会将缺少700万熟练工人。日本的劳动适龄人口在1998年达到顶峰,此后一直在稳步下降。美国正处于就业机会激增的边缘,预计到2030年将新增1190万个就业岗位,然而,尽管美国经济迫切需要工人,但国内仍将出现300万的劳动力缺口。

世界各地的人口都在加速老龄化,这一趋势即使在传统的劳动力输出国和低收入国家也未能幸免,非洲是唯一的例外。这一现实表明,针对这些传统移民输出国的更开放的移民政策——在当前的政治形势下,这一重大政策转变实际上是无法实现的——并不足以改变局势。中美洲国家目前的生育率低于更替水平,这与许多移民来源国和低收入国家将“未富先老”的担忧相呼应。为非洲移民工人进入高收入劳动力市场提供便利固然重要,但同样重要的是对他们的教育和培训进行投资,确保非洲工人充分利用海外机会。

危机中的劳动力

除了世界老龄化之外,大辞职潮也是真实存在的,自疫情爆发以来,许多工人离开了劳动力市场。在美国,在2021年和2022年,有5000万名工人离职,这一情况前所未有,反映出新冠肺炎疫情后人们对工作的不满情绪日益高涨。虽然最初被认为主要是出现在美国的趋势,但数据表明,这种普遍的不满情绪已经蔓延到世界其他地区。2022年法国的自愿辞职人数达到创纪录的270万,整个欧洲也出现了类似的趋势,但亚洲的辞职人数有所下降。在澳大利亚,有越来越多的迹象表明类似的工人不满情绪。即使在最近辞职率有所下降的美国,个人护理服务等某些行业的辞职率仍高于平均水平。

我们观察到的劳动力短缺现象在一定程度上可以追溯到新冠肺炎疫情的破坏性影响,包括“长新冠”的持续影响。在美国,不仅要悼念因病毒而失去生命的超过25万名劳动适龄人口,而且还发现劳动力持续减少,各年龄组退出就业的人数是原来的两倍多。移民社区受到的影响尤为严重,其新冠死亡率更高,进一步加剧了现有移民劳动力的减少。

疫情爆发后,人们的工作偏好发生了明显变化,越来越多的人要求减少工作时间、提高灵活性、更好地平衡工作与生活。在美国,相当多的雇员表示,辞职不是可行的选择,他们明确表达了对更灵活的工作条件、远程工作机会和实现工作与生活平衡的偏好,这也是疫情对工作场所规范影响所留下的持久传统。在新加坡,员工们愿意用薪酬来换取灵活性。因此,这一趋势,尤其是在年轻员工、高收入者和女性中,导致美国工作时间减少,进一步加剧了劳动力短缺。

职位空缺激增并不只是一种反常现象,它预示着一场席卷全球劳动力市场的深刻变革。这一转变不仅包括人口结构的转型,还包括后疫情时代工作偏好的变化。

现有的解决方案可能会短暂缓解情况,经济衰退可能会暂时掩盖这些挑战,但最终的解决方案将需要史无前例的全球合作。现在是时候采取大胆的、创造性的方法来调动多样化的劳动力资源了:利用非洲快速增长的劳动适龄人口,挖掘低收入国家年龄较大但仍具有生产力的工人的潜力,以及重新雇佣富裕国家的退休人员和带有不满情绪的年轻员工。

认识到我们面临的挑战的相互关联性至关重要。我们是全球单一劳动力市场的一部分。我们面临的问题是共同的,因此必须戮力同心,寻找解决方案。(财富中文网)

米格尔维·彼得拉斯凯特维(Miglė Petrauskaitė)是乌干达对外直接投资研究员,现任乌干达财政部高级经济学家。

埃尔温·R·琼森(Erwin R. Tiongson)是乔治敦大学(Georgetown University)全球人类发展项目的实践教授和副主任。

译者:中慧言-王芳

Job vacancies have stayed high or have been rising in various parts of the world, despite slower global growth and tighter credit markets. Countries around the world have taken measures to address these unusual worker shortages–but piecemeal solutions overlook the transformation of the global labor market, the fundamental ways it has changed since the pandemic, and the consequences of the demographic transition worldwide.

Global growth has slowed since 2022, as various shocks and conflicts have damaged and continue to threaten the global economy. With tighter credit conditions everywhere and businesses still reeling from inflation, unemployment is projected to rise steadily in the coming years.

Yet the number of job vacancies–unoccupied roles businesses are eager to fill–remains surprisingly high or even close to record highs in various parts of the world. Even in the markets where job vacancies have been trending down in recent months–such as in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Singapore, the U.K., and the U.S.–they remain unusually high and above their pre-pandemic average. Elsewhere, for example in Belgium, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, and Spain, they have stayed high or have been rising.

The real number of vacancies could be even higher if we consider that firms may be discouraged from posting new vacancies, having previously failed to find qualified workers. In Germany, although the number of registered vacancies is about 700,000, the government estimates that the real number is closer to 2 million.

The mismatch between the skills that workers have and what employers need presents a significant barrier to filling job vacancies. The reality is stark: While the job market burgeons with opportunities, a mismatch in skills leaves many positions unfilled, even in the face of high or rising unemployment.

A skills shortage

In Ontario, Canada, the manufacturing sector is struggling to fill the roles, with over 18,900 vacant positions and an impending influx of more than 7,000 jobs in the electric vehicle sector looming over the next two years. At the end of 2022, Australia encountered a similar scenario, with job vacancies surpassing the count of unemployed individuals. In Singapore, the post-pandemic labor market is characterized by a mismatch between the jobs available and the skills of the workforce, resulting in 1.6 job vacancies for every unemployed individual. Across Europe, the longstanding struggle to find enough skilled workers in the construction sector has been exacerbated by a surge in demand following the pandemic, signaling a broader, global challenge.

The acute shortage of skilled labor is now seen as a barrier to economic growth. In Germany, economic growth prospects are now at 0.7%–far below its long-term average of 2%–partly due to a worker shortage. Businesses eager to grow and capitalize on new market opportunities find themselves hamstrung by the difficulty of sourcing workers with the right skills. This gap between available jobs and the skills of job seekers not only underscores the inefficiencies in current workforce development strategies but also highlights an urgent need for educational and vocational training programs to pivot. Industry representatives across countries have argued such programs must now evolve swiftly to match the demands of a rapidly changing marketplace, one where the push for low-carbon technologies and the pace of digitalization are accelerating the demand for new, specialized skills.

The scramble for solutions

The rise in job vacancies and worker shortages reflects several underlying trends. After a downturn in 2020, the global economy saw a robust rebound, surging by 6.3% in 2021 and 3.4% in 2022, which, in turn, spurred an uptick in job postings. The second piece of the puzzle could be related to reduced immigration flows due to COVID-19. The pandemic prompted many workers to leave their host countries, while immigration systems grappled with delays in visa processing, creating worker gaps as a result. Third, wage stagnation has been a persistent issue. For instance, in Australia, even as wages have seen some increase, they have failed to match the rising cost of living. Finally, specific national circumstances also play a role, such as the U.K.’s labor market challenges post-Brexit.

In response, governments have started taking steps to recruit more immigrant workers or formalize their status. At the end of last year, Greece approved new legislation granting thousands of undocumented migrants residence rights, provided they secure employment. Top officials in Germany have gone so far as to admit that the country could not close its widening workforce gap without migrant labor. Berlin has implemented several legislative changes aimed at making Germany more appealing to migrant workers, including simplifying the path to citizenship, accelerating visa processing, and recognizing foreign qualifications in the job market. More countries may follow suit.

New work arrangements, such as a four-day workweek, are also being explored. In Germany, since February, dozens of companies have been piloting a four-day workweek. The idea is that a shorter workweek could ultimately make workers more motivated and productive, helping ease labor shortages in the process. Other European countries are running similar trials. Meanwhile, in at least one German city, public companies are hiring students to help alleviate the shortage of workers. Remarkably, some U.S. states have been considering easing child labor laws and allowing more teenagers to be hired by establishments because migration policy is thought to be more controversial.

A global demographic transition

In the meantime, an economic slowdown could temporarily conceal the underlying trend of increasing job vacancies. Take the U.K., where the ongoing economic contraction is simultaneously driving up unemployment rates and diminishing the number of available positions. Similarly, in Denmark, the recession towards the end of 2023 appears to have contributed to a decrease in job openings. As these economies eventually rebound, we are likely to see a resurgence of labor shortages and vacancies.

However, piecemeal measures alone will not solve the issue, as a longer-term demographic transition is unfolding worldwide. Across advanced economies, unfilled vacancies are set to rise due to aging populations. Official estimates suggest Germany’s aging society will be short seven million skilled workers by 2035. Japan’s working-age population peaked in 1998, and the numbers have been on a steady decline ever since. The U.S. stands on the precipice of a job surge, with forecasts promising 11.9 million new roles by 2030, yet the domestic labor force is on track to fall short by 3 million, even as the economy clamors for workers.

Populations worldwide are aging quickly, a trend not spared even among traditional labor-sending and lower-income countries, with Africa being the lone exception. This reality indicates that more open migration policies aimed at these traditional sending countries–a significant policy shift virtually unattainable in the current political landscape–would not suffice. Countries in Central America now have fertility rates below replacement, echoing the concern that many migrant countries of origin and lower-income countries will be “old before they get rich.” While facilitating access for African migrant workers to high-income labor markets will be important, equally vital is the investment in their education and training, ensuring that African workers make full use of opportunities overseas.

A workforce in crisis

In addition to an aging world, the Great Resignation was real, with many workers having left the workforce since the pandemic. In the U.S., an unprecedented 50 million workers stepped down in 2021 and 2022, reflecting a growing dissatisfaction with work following the COVID-19 pandemic. Although initially perceived as predominantly an American trend, the data suggest that this general dissatisfaction has spread to other parts of the world. France witnessed a record 2.7 million voluntary resignations in 2022, with similar trends observed across Europe, though Asia saw a decline in resignations. In Australia, there are growing signs of similar worker discontent. And even in the U.S. where quit rates have recently fallen, certain industries like personal care services continue to report higher-than-average resignation rates.

The labor shortages we observe can partly be traced back to the devastating impact of COVID-19, including the lingering effects of long COVID. In the U.S., the workforce has not only mourned the loss of over a quarter-million working-age individuals to the virus but has also seen a lasting reduction, with a figure more than twice as large across various age groups withdrawing from employment. Particularly affected were migrant communities, which suffered higher COVID-19 mortality rates, further exacerbating the decrease in available migrant labor.

Following the pandemic, a pronounced shift in work preferences has emerged, with a growing demand for reduced hours, enhanced flexibility, and better work-life balance. In the U.S., a substantial number of employees, for whom resignation isn’t a viable choice, have voiced a clear preference for more flexible working conditions, remote opportunities, and improved work-life balance–an enduring legacy of the pandemic’s impact on workplace norms. In Singapore, workers are willing to trade off pay for flexibility. As a result, this trend, particularly among younger workers, higher earners, and women, has led to a reduction in working hours in the U.S., further exacerbating labor shortages.

The surge in vacancies isn’t just an anomaly–it signals a profound transformation sweeping across global labor markets. This shift encompasses not only the demographic transition but also the changes in work preferences post-pandemic.

Existing solutions may offer brief relief, and economic downturns could hide these challenges temporarily, but ultimately, the resolution will require global coordination unlike we have seen before. It’s time for daring, creative approaches to mobilize diverse labor pools: harnessing Africa’s rapidly growing working-age population, tapping into the underutilized potential of older but still productive workers from lower-income countries, and re-engaging the retirees and dissatisfied younger workers of wealthier countries.

Recognizing the interconnectedness of the challenges before us is crucial. We are part of a singular, global labor market. The problems we face are shared, and so must be the solutions we will figure out, together.

Miglė Petrauskaitė is an ODI Fellow serving as Senior Economist at Uganda’s Ministry of Finance.

Erwin R. Tiongson is Professor of the Practice and Deputy Director of Georgetown University’s Global Human Development Program.

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