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一张图看懂:股市暴跌的问题可能比你想得更严重

Stephen Gandel, Stacy Jones 2015年07月09日

有迹象表明,中国股市的下跌并非只是涉及股市本身,它有可能会触动整个中国经济。突然之间,在美国上市的中概股最近跌得比国内上市的那些股票更厉害。

    美国投资者终于切身体会到了中国股市跳水所带来的影响。

    中国股市将近一个月的暴跌让大盘狂降了26%,期间,美国投资者似乎一直在扮演旁观者的角色。总体而言,美国股市近期持续上扬,而且在各类市场消息中,美国、希腊甚至是波多黎各都要比中国更为抢眼。

    然而问题在于,中国股市跳水会给全球市场带来多大的经济影响?中国股市的波动性很大。之前一飞冲天,现在一泻千里。中国的经济增速正在放缓,但速度不快,很有可能会“软着陆”,除非股市崩盘打破这一趋势。

    中国股市的大多数投资者都是普通老百姓,但大多数中国人并没有买股票。因此,我们很难得知股市的暴跌会带来多大的影响。如今,中国似乎既有意愿,也有能力帮助其银行摆脱困境。

    但是在过去一周,有迹象表明,中国股市的下跌并非只是涉及股市本身,它有可能会触动整个中国经济。突然之间,在美国上市的中概股的表现开始落后于上交所的中国股。自7月初以来,由阿里巴巴等在美上市的中国大公司组成的iShares高市值交易所交易基金指数(iShares Large-Cap ETF)下跌了10%。阿里巴巴股价最近下探至IPO以来的新低。指数中表现最差的当属为中国各省提供在线彩票服务的500.com。自6月中旬以来,该公司股价下跌了40%。

    这波下跌所释放的信号在于:中国股市的现状并非仅是股价下跌这么简单,它可能意味着中国的经济要比人们想象的差。至少,这一现象说明了中国股市的问题正蔓延至其他市场。不过,上述两点都不是什么好事,而且美国投资者也应对此有所警觉。(财富中文网)

    译者:冯丰

    校对:詹妮

    U.S. investors are finally getting a front row seat to China’s market meltdown.

    Much of the near month-long collapse of the Chinese stock market, which has sent prices plunging 26%, has seemed like a sideshow to U.S. investors. Stocks in the U.S. in general have mostly continued to go up. And the U.S., Greece, and even Puerto Rico have played a larger role in market news.

    The question is, how big of an economic story is China’s stock market stumble? China’s market is volatile. It went up too much and now it is falling fast. The nation’s economy is slowing, but slowly, and likely into a soft-landing, unless the Chinese stock market crash changes that dynamic.

    The vast majority of Chinese stocks are held by average Chinese investors. But the vast majority of Chinese don’t own stocks. So it’s hard to know how much impact the drop will have. And China seems willing, and able, to bail out its banks for now.

    But in the past week, there have been signs that what’s going on in the Chinese markets is not just about the markets, but potentially about China’s economy overall. U.S.-listed Chinese stocks are all of sudden doing worse than Chinese stocks listed on the local Shanghai exchange. Since the beginning of July, the iShares Large-Cap ETF, which is made up of large U.S.-listed Chinese companies including Alibaba BABA -0.76% and others, is down about 10%. Alibaba recently fell to its lowest price since its IPO. The worst performer in the index is 500.com WBAI -16.64% , which offers online lottery services to Chinese provinces. That company’s stock is down 40% since mid-June.

    The drop in U.S.-listed Chinese stocks signals that what is going on in mainland China’s markets is more than just about stock prices. It could signal that the Chinese economy is in worse shape than we think. At the very least, it suggests that the troubles in China’s local stock market are spreading. Either one is not good. And something that U.S. investors should keep an eye on.

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