我曾经期待在2012年糟糕的选举结束后领导人们能开展理性的对话。结果我还是太天真了。民主党人见事态不好就假装接近共和党人，但实际上他们没有进行真正的对话。现在，面对利比亚班加西（Benghazi）使馆遇袭、国税局（IRS）不当审查保守团体和媒体窃听这些丑闻，共和党人甚至都懒得和颜悦色。

    你可能会说，别这么激动。股指创新高、房价复苏、企业利润强劲，还有什么能引起危机呢？

    首先，我们有大而不倒的银行，它们仍依赖于短期融资市场，而这个市场有可能像2008和2009年那样迅速冰封。一些人，包括我在《财富》（Fortune）杂志的同事希拉•贝尔，都认为现在的政府有能力处理这个问题。我尊重但不同意这一见解。

    国债上限，据推测在9月前不会提高，也有可能转变成灾难。如果我们这次再度陷入危机边缘，有可能引起美国国债持有国的恐慌，进而导致市场利率上涨过高、股价下跌，从而引发金融恐慌。

    我不希望见到危机，我也希望我们所谓的聪明领导们在危机暴发前能振作。但我绝对不会指望他们能力挽狂澜。这是他们的不幸，也是我们的不幸。（财富中文网）

    译者：默默

    I had expected our leaders to have rational conversations after the poisonous 2012 elections were over. I was naive. The Democrats, scenting blood, pretended to reach out to Republicans, but really didn't. Now, smelling blood over Benghazi, the IRS, and media phone records, Republicans aren't even pretending to be playing nice.

    Calm down, you say. Stocks are at all-time highs, house prices have recovered, and corporate profits are strong. What could possibly cause a crisis?

    For starters, we still have too-big-to-fail banks that depend on short-term financial markets, which could dry up in an instant, as in 2008-09. Some, including my Fortune colleague Sheila Bair, think the government now has the tools to deal with this. I respectfully disagree.

    The debt-ceiling question, supposedly on hold until September, has disaster potential too. If we slip over the brink this time, it could spook foreign buyers, run interest rates way up, run stocks down, and spark a financial panic.

    I don't want to see a crisis, and I hope our alleged leaders, who aren't stupid, bestir themselves before one strikes. But I sure wouldn't count on it. Too bad for them. Too bad for us.