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Facebook上市前的内部抛售不足为虑

Dan Primack
2012-05-22

Facebook上市前夜坊间传言其股票遭到内部人士的抛售,暗示这家公司的市值已经达到顶点,即将开始走下坡路。其实,这种说法实属夸大其词,理智的投资者不应该偏听偏信。

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    第三,谷歌高管中至少有五人在上市时出售了股份,他们是:首席执行官埃里克•施密特,联合创始人谢尔盖•布林和拉里•佩奇,销售总裁奥米德•柯德斯塔尼和技术总监韦恩•罗欣。而Facebook的高管中,除了马克•扎克伯格,没人计划在公司上市时出售股份。

    实际上,Facebook和谷歌之间唯一的类似之处在于,它们之所以上市,都是拜一条古老的联邦法例所赐,也就是所谓的“500股东法案”(500 shareholder rule)。它实在是有年头了,直到上个月才把股东人数的要求提高到2,000名(但对Facebook来说,这个调整姗姗来迟,它已没法再改弦易辙了)。

    这件事为什么至关重要?因为它能证明多数人所持的想法有误,也就是认为这两家公司之所以上市,是因为它们的市值已经达到了峰值。而如果Facebook的内部人真信这一套,他们为什么还攥着股份不放呢(更别提他们还留着大部分股份)?或者,为什么过去这几年他们不在二级市场多卖掉些股票呢,这样他们能赚到的前和上市时赚到的钱也差不多?

    说到底,这并不是说Facebook值不值800亿或1,000亿美元。我只是说,如果你认为股价合适,那就别被这些有关内部人抛售股票的夸大其词的传言给吓跑了。

    译者:清远

   Third, at least five senior members of Google management sold shares at IPO: CEO Eric Schmidt, co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page, sales chief Omid Kordestani and head of engineering Wayne Rossing. By contrast, no senior Facebook exec except for CEO Mark Zuckerberg is offering shares at IPO.

    In fact, the only relevant similarity between Facebook and Google here is that they both went public due to an archaic federal regulation known as the "500 shareholder rule." So archaic, in fact, that it was expanded to 2,000 just last month (not quite soon enough for Facebook to reverse course).

    Why does this matter? Because it belies the notion that either company went public at what they believed to be "peak Facebook" or "peak Google." And if the company's insiders believed that to be the case, why hold onto any shares at all (let alone most of their shares)? Or why not sell more of them on the secondary markets over the past couple of years, when they could get similar value to the IPO price?

    To be clear, this isn't to say that Facebook does, or doesn't, reserve an $80 billion valuation. Or a $100 billion valuation. It's simply to say that if you believe the price is right, don't be scared off by overblown tales of insider sales.

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