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专栏 - 苹果2_0

乔布斯电视革命再度升温

Philip Elmer-DeWit 2011年12月30日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
所谓“真正的”苹果电视服务传闻不断升温,苹果有望颠覆整个电视行业的观点再次浮出水面。

图片来源:麦克·科普兰

    2009年末,《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal )的一篇报道曾经令电视业不寒而栗。

    《华尔街日报》当时报道称,据了解苹果公司(Apple)谈判事宜内幕的多位匿名人士透露,哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)和美国广播公司(ABC)正在慎重考虑史蒂夫•乔布斯的提议,在互联网上提供电视订阅服务。

    消息人士称,其中一项可能的订阅方案每月收费30美元,没有广告,囊括了多家顶级有线电视和广播电视运营商——很像苹果提出的所谓“最好的电视服务”方案。

    《华尔街日报》称,虽然苹果希望在2010年就能启动这项服务,但方案遭遇了电视行业的强烈反对,尤其是那些赚得盆满钵满的有线运营商。它们每年从广告和有线订阅费中获利上百亿美元,而电视订户为了能收看到自己的喜欢节目,不得不为了屈指可数的几个节目就为整个频道买单。

    一位媒体高管当时对《华尔街日报》称:“这就好比为了开源,就在水桶上打洞。”

    由于以上种种原因,苹果的电视订阅服务未能在2010年启动。当然,2011年看来也不可能了。

    但乔布斯的理念并未被人遗忘。本周三,投资公司Sterne Agee的吴肖(音译)在致客户的报告中称,虽然苹果目前已经拥有了苹果电视和iTunes中可供购买的丰富资源,但这一方案仍然欠缺实时电视播放功能。

    吴肖指出,要弥补这个空白,一种方案是让用户订阅卫星或有线电视服务,也就是电视业现行的做法。

    而另一种方案——吴肖称之为“更具革命性、颠覆性和差异化的方式”是,通过互联网发送内容,它非常接近乔布斯当初提出的“最好的电视服务”。

    吴肖写道:“我们总听到人们再说,苹果希望能向观众提供自行定制选择节目的服务。例如,只要支付订阅费用,就能自行选择频道和节目。显然,从授权角度来说,这种模式要复杂得多。但我们认为,此举将颠覆整个电视行业,让苹果在竞争中再次占得先机。”

    译者:向杭

    In late 2009, the Wall Street Journal ran a story that sent shivers through the television industry.

    Quoting unnamed sources familiar with Apple's (AAPL) negotiations, the Journal reported that CBS (CBS) and ABC (DIS) were seriously considering Steve Jobs' plan to offer TV subscriptions over the Internet.

    One form those subscriptions might take, according to these sources, was a $30-per-month package of advertising-free shows from a bundle of top cable and broadcast networks -- something Apple was calling the "best of television."

    Although the Journal reported that Apple was hoping to launch the service in 2010, it met fierce resistance, particularly from cable companies that reap tens of billions each year in advertising dollars and in the fees subscribers pay for access to channels they don't want in order to watch the handful of shows they do.

    "You don't want to shoot a hole in the bucket to create another revenue stream," one media executive told the Journal at the time.

    Apple's TV subscription service did not launch in 2010, obviously. Or in 2011, for that matter.

    But the idea has not gone away. In a note to clients issued Wednesday, Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu noted that what's missing from Apple's current TV offering -- Apple TV coupled with the content available for purchase on iTunes -- is access to live broadcast television.

    One way to get that access, he writes, is to have users subscribe to satellite or cable TV services, the way they do now.

    But another way -- in his words "a more revolutionary, disruptive and differentiated way" -- would be to offer the content via the Internet, in a subscription service that sounds a lot like Jobs' original "best of television" idea.

    "We continue to hear," Wu writes, "what AAPL would love to do is offer users the ability to choose their own customized programming, i.e., whichever channels/shows they want for a monthly subscription fee. This is obviously much more complicated from a licensing standpoint. And in our view, would change the game for television and give AAPL a big leg-up against the competition."

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