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美国信用评级标普穆迪有分歧

Dan Primack
2011-08-10

标普和穆迪在美国信用评级上产生了分歧。这次分歧是否反常?

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    标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)上周五猛烈抨击了美国的经济和政治体系,有史以来首次降低了美国的AAA评级。标普的竞争对手穆迪(Moody’s)对此持有异议,它仍坚持美国的Aaa评级,不过同时也把美国的信用展望下调至“负面”。

    两大评级机构在美债评级上产生分歧后,一些分析师迅速跳出来大做文章,许多人更试图否定标普的结论。但《财富》杂志(Fortune)经回顾发现,标普和穆迪其实经常在主权信用评级上产生分歧。

    在对全球GDP最高的15个国家的评级上,标普和穆迪只对10个国家的评级保持一致,而在其余五国的评级上存在分歧(包括美国)。

    其中,他们对日本、巴西和墨西哥三国的评级只是稍有分歧。例如标普对日本的评级是AA-,而穆迪的评级则是Aa2。正常来说,按照两家评级机构各自的评级标准,如果他们的评级一致,结果应该显示为AA-对Aa3,或是AA对Aa2.

    除了美国之外,意大利是另一个让标普和穆迪产生重大分歧的国家,两机构对该国的评级整整差了一级。标普将意大利评为A+,而穆迪将其评为Aa2。穆迪现在正在对日本和意大利进行审查,有可能对他们进行信用降级。

    译者:朴成奎

    Standard & Poor's on Friday night slammed the U.S. economy and its political system, lowering the nation's AAA credit rating for the first time in history. Rival credit rating agency Moody's dissented, reaffirming its Aaa rating while placing the country on negative credit watch.

    Some analysts have been making hay of the discrepancy, particularly as a way to delegitimize S&P's decision. But a review by Fortune shows that the two agencies regularly disagree over sovereign credit ratings.

    When it comes to rating the 15 nations with the highest GDP, S&P and Moody's only sync up 66% of the time. For five countries, including the U.S., they do not.

    Three of the disputed sovereigns -- Japan, Brasil and Mexico -- differ only slightly. Japan, for example, is rated AA- by S&P and Aa2 by Moody's. A perfect match would be AA- and Aa3, or AA and Aa2.

    Italy is the only country other than the U.S. to have an entire category differential, with S&P rating it A+ and Moody's rating it Aa2. Both Japan and Italy currently are under review by Moody's for possible credit rating downgrades.

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