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专栏 - Geoff Colvin

腐败:发展中国家的最大威胁

Geoff Colvin 2011年04月26日

杰奥夫·科尔文(Geoff Colvin)为《财富》杂志高级编辑、专栏作家。美国在管理与领导力、全球化、股东价值创造等方面最犀利也是最受尊重的评论员之一。拥有纽约大学斯特恩商学院MBA学位,哈佛大学经济学荣誉学位。

    一个星期前,一家美国大公司的CEO对我说:“我们正在考虑退出巴西。”这家公司已经在巴西运作了几年了,正在做着好几百万美元的生意。它究竟出了什么问题?原来这家公司摊上了官司,公司收到一连串莫名其妙的法院判决,而且还需支付贵得吓死人的罚金,一切让这位CEO怀疑自己是否有能力继续经营下去。他不明白法院为何会理直气壮地下达这种判决——就连巴西前总统卢拉都称巴西的司法制度是个“不可触摸”的“黑盒子”——如果这个司法体系真的不可救药,这位CEO就要放弃巴西了。

    这就是腐败,一个我们想都不愿想的问题,但现在它正威胁着崛起中的发展中国家,它是阻碍发展中国家成为世界一流经济体的一大绊脚石。考虑到腐败的历史,在这个问题上的任何乐观情绪都是愚蠢的。尽管美国媒体和华尔街总是在关注一些更易掌控的问题,例如通胀和汇率,不过世界各国的领导人们却都非常明白腐败的危害,它是“金砖四国”(BRICs)和其他新兴经济体的最大威胁。今年三月,中国总理温家宝在全国人大代表会上表示,腐败是中国的“最大威胁”。最近美国副总统乔•拜登访问俄罗斯时,也把腐败列为阻碍改善俄美经济关系的头号障碍。并且直截了当地提到了谢尔盖•马格涅斯基事件。马格涅斯基是一名律师,他曾指控警察腐败,后来他于2009年在狱中离奇身死。

    腐败问题并非仅是小额的贿赂和好处费等等,上下打点的做法在全世界都很普遍,当然它也有它的害处。但腐败在发展中国家已经达到了令人发指的地步。例如在过去几年里,印度的电信管理部门已经从各种项目中搜刮了300多亿美元。一位俄罗斯激进人士在网上曝光的文件明确显示,在一家国营公司的跨西伯利亚管道工程中存在40亿美元的诈骗。在中国,一位负责新型高铁网络的部长被控贪污1.52亿美元(此部长还包养了18名情妇)。腐败的深层损害远远大于表面影响,它使许多投资人望而却步,而这些投资又正是经济发展所急需的。毕马威会计师事务所(KPMG)的一份报告指出,“印度的高度腐败和欺诈使该国的信用和经济发展存在脱轨的危险。”

    腐败的社会影响更不易察觉,但可以说也更恶劣。它打消了人们的主观能动性和雄心壮志——如果努力不是成功的源泉,那么何苦还要努力呢?人们对政府的尊重也随之消失。尤其随着社会变得更加富裕,普通公民与被官方容忍的为富不仁者之间的差距越来越大,愤怒和不满情绪也在日益蔓延。当温家宝总理谈到“腐败是中国的最大威胁”时,他指的并不是腐败对外国投资者的影响,他担心的是“社会安定”。他知道,尽管腐败不是点燃北非和中东革命的唯一原因,但它也是让革命分子民怨沸腾的一个重要原因。

    谈到腐败问题,很多人只是无谓地耸耸肩,因为他们认为腐败是永远反不完的,是不能根治的。事实并非如此。科尔盖特大学(Colgate University)的腐败问题专家迈克尔•约翰斯顿指出,17世纪的英国、19世纪的瑞典都极其腐败。新加坡和香港几乎仅仅通过一代人的努力就彻底清除了腐败。不过约翰斯顿也表示,改革是非常困难的,尤其是在“存在巨大风险”的大型经济体里。改革“可能退化为由改革者发起的政治报复”。那么改革应该从哪里开始呢?约翰斯顿表示:“看一个社会是否能处理好腐败问题,最好的指标之一是看财产权的保护力度。这也是发起改革一个的好起点。”

    腐败的另一个隐蔽的特点是,腐败几乎是说不得的。我不能说那位正在考虑离开巴西的CEO是谁,因为如果我这样做了,他的公司就危险了。而且一般说来,“民告官”本来就是危险的。而且贪污腐败总是在暗中进行。一个人在路灯下找钥匙,不是因为他把钥匙丢在了路灯下面,而是因为那里光线更好。同理,我们往往总是盯着有很多统计数据佐证,并且适用数学分析的经济问题。但是我们却忽视了一个重大的危险。如果你认为最近各国政府对腐败问题的关注能产生很大的效果,那就太天真了。不过如果他们的反腐行动收效甚微的话,那么这些新兴经济体的发展之路可能会变得非常艰险。

    译者:朴成奎

    "We're thinking of pulling out of Brazil," the CEO of a large American corporation told me a week ago. The company has been operating there for a few years, doing several million dollars of business. The problem? A series of court judgments so inexplicable, and so crushingly expensive, that the CEO doubts his ability to manage the business. He doesn't see how the rulings can be honest -- even former President Luiz Lula da Silva called Brazil's judiciary a "black box" that's "untouchable" -- and if the system doesn't work, this CEO is bailing out.

    This is corruption, a problem we'd rather not think about that now threatens the ascension of developing countries into the top tier of world economies. Given its history, optimism on the subject would be foolish. But while the media and Wall Street focus on more tractable issues like inflation and exchange rates, world leaders seem perfectly clear on the greatest threat to the future of the BRICs and other emerging economies. Corruption is the "biggest threat to China," Premier Wen Jiabao told the National People's Congress in March. When U.S. Vice President Joe Biden visited Russia recently, he cited corruption as the No. 1 impediment to better economic relations and pointedly mentioned Sergei Magnitsky, a lawyer who died in custody in 2009 after accusing the police of corruption.

    The problem is not just the petty palm greasing that's common worldwide, though that has its own corrosive effects. Developing-market corruption has reached staggering dimensions. India's telecom ministry apparently siphoned $30 billion from various projects over the past few years. A Russian activist posted online documents apparently showing a $4 billion fraud in a state-run company's trans-Siberian pipeline project. In China a minister overseeing the new high-speed-rail network is accused of skimming $152 million (and maintaining 18 mistresses). The threat is broader than it may seem: Corruption discourages the investments needed for economic progress. In India "high-level corruption and scams are now threatening to derail the country's credibility and [its] economic boom," says a report from KPMG.

    The societal effects are subtler and arguably worse. Initiative and ambition shrivel: Why try hard when effort isn't the source of success? Respect for authority evaporates. Anger and resentment build, especially as a society becomes richer and the gulf between ordinary citizens and the officially tolerated crooks grows wider. When Premier Wen declared corruption the biggest threat to China, he wasn't talking about its effect on foreign investors; he's worried about "social stability." He knows that while massive corruption isn't the only grievance of the revolutionaries in North Africa and the Middle East, it's a big one.

    Many people shrug at corruption because they figure it's eternal and incurable. Not so. England was deeply corrupt in the 17th century, Sweden in the 19th, notes professor Michael Johnston of Colgate University, a corruption expert. Singapore and Hong Kong virtually eradicated corruption in a generation. Still, reform is extraordinarily hard, he says, especially in big economies where "huge stakes are on the table." Reform "can degenerate into political payback" by the reformers. Where to begin? "One of the best predictors of whether a society will do well on corruption is the strength of property rights," Johnston says. "That's not a bad place to start."

    An insidious feature of corruption is that it's hard to talk about. I can't identify the CEO who's thinking of leaving Brazil because doing so could imperil his company's ability to operate there. More generally, accusing people in power is inherently dangerous. Graft operates in the dark. So, like the man looking for his keys under a lamppost not because he lost them there but because the light is better, we focus on economic issues that are rich with statistics and susceptible to math. But we're missing a giant danger. It's naive to think the recent official attention to corruption will amount to much. If it doesn't, the progress of the emerging economies could turn ugly.

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