全球第三大富豪净值缩水，原因是特朗普

路威酩轩集团（LVMH）的老板伯纳德·阿诺特遇到了一个问题——一个唐纳德·特朗普问题。

现年70岁的世界第三大富豪价值1040亿美元的身家在上周二下滑16亿美元，原因是美国贸易代表宣布对法国奢侈品制造商加征高达100%的关税，其中包括路威酩轩旗下的时装品牌宝格丽（Bulgari）、迪奥（Christian Dior）、路易威登（Louis Vuitton）和香槟生产商酩悦（Moët & Chandon）。

上述关税是针对法国对推特、谷歌、Facebook和亚马逊等硅谷巨头征收数字服务税（DST）实施的报复，如果在2020年1月成为现实,将一举击中阿诺特庞大商业帝国的心脏，根据数据，该集团的2018年总营收接近520亿美元,。

上周二，路威酩轩集团（阿诺特持股50%）的股价在受到关税威胁后下跌了1.5%，导致该时尚巨头在当天交易中损失了约16亿美元。之后，股价收复了一半失地，截至上周四上午，约为每股441美元。

根据Factset的数据，阿诺特所持股票在上周二的总市值为1040亿美元，较11月29日蒸发了40亿美元。

财富的变化

而就在此之前，阿诺特在11月底刚刚宣布路易酩轩以162亿美元收购纽约著名珠宝商蒂芙尼的利好消息。这笔交易将为他名下一系列耀眼的品牌名录中增添另一个知名奢侈品品牌，也让他更接近“世界首富”的称号。

上周二，特朗普在伦敦北约会议第一天发言，不仅没有对自己针对法国奢侈品牌作出的决定道歉，还直接批评了法国针对美国公司的数字服务税。

LVMH boss Bernard Arnault has a problem—a Donald Trump problem.

The world’s third-richest man, 70, saw his $104 billion personal fortune slip by an estimated $1.6 billion on last Tuesday after the U.S. Trade Representative announced tariffs of up to 100% on luxury French manufacturers, including LVMH-owned fashion houses Bulgari, Christian Dior, and Louis Vuitton and Champagne-maker Moët & Chandon.

Should they be implemented in January, the tariffs—launched in retaliation to France's new Digital Services Tax (DST) on Silicon Valley giants such as Twitter, Google, Facebook and Amazon—will strike at the heart of Arnault’s sprawling business empire, which recorded total revenue of close to $52 billion in 2018, according to company figures.

On last Tuesday, the share price of LVMH—which is 50% owned by Arnault—fell 1.5% following the tariff threat, costing the fashion magnate around $1.6 billion in a single day of trading. The stock has since gained back half the losses to stand at around $441 a share as of last Thursday morning.

Data from Factset also showed the total market value of Arnault’s holdings as $104 billion on last Tuesday, a dip of $4 billion from November 29.

Change of fortune

The downward trajectories immediately follow upbeat news for Arnault, who just last week announced LVMH’s $16.2 billion deal for storied New York jeweler Tiffany. The deal will add yet another world-famous luxury brand to his portfolio of glamorous names, and push him closer to the title of “world’s richest person.”

Speaking on the first day of the NATO conference in London on last Tuesday, Trump was unapologetic about his decision to target French luxury brands and directly criticized the French digital tax for targeting U.S. companies.

“我不会让任何人占美国公司便宜。”特朗普谈起法国的数字服务税时表示，这项税收将对科技巨头在法国赚取的收入征收3%的税，其中很多公司总部都在美国。

“我不想让法国对美国公司征税。如果有人要对美国公司征税，只能是我们。”他补充道。

美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽在上周一首次提到这项可能要加征的关税后，产生了立竿见影的影响：阿诺特旗下迪奥的股价第二天下跌了1.5%，其竞争对手、拥有时尚品牌古驰（Gucci）、圣罗兰（Yves Saint Laurent）和巴黎世家（Balenciaga）的奢侈品集团开云集团（Kering）股价也下跌了约1.9%。迪奥和开云的股价此后都已经恢复了约四分之三的损失。

第二击

这项新的关税威胁是近几个月来法国和阿诺特本人受到的第二次打击。10月18日，特朗普政府对大型民用飞机征收10%的关税，对包括威士忌、葡萄酒、手袋、男士西装在内的各类欧洲产品征收25%的关税，作为法国、德国、西班牙和英国向法国空客提供180亿美元政府补贴的回应——这些补贴被世界贸易组织认定为违规。

这次关税影响到了许多行业，既包括苏格兰的威士忌酿酒厂，也包括洛克福特和格鲁耶尔的奶酪制造商，但对路威酩轩集团的打击是巨大的，因为它的酩悦轩尼诗旗下有26家独立的葡萄酒和烈酒制造商，如唐培里侬（Dom Perignon）、库克（Krug）、凯歌香槟（Veuve Clicquot）和轩尼诗（Hennessy）。其庞大的时尚产业还包括一系列为纪梵希（Givenchy）、高田贤三（Kenzo）和路易威登等品牌生产的高档皮革制品。

“I’m not going to let anyone take advantage of American companies,” Trump told reporters of the tax that will introduce a 3% levy on the revenue earned in France by the tech titans, many of which are based in the U.S.

“I don’t want France to be taxing American companies. If anyone’s going to tax American companies, it’s us,” he added.

When the U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Robert Lighthizer first mentioned the potential tariffs on last Monday, the effect was immediate: shares in Arnault-owned Christian Dior dropped by 1.5% Tuesday, with rival luxury group Kering, owner of fashion icons Gucci, Yves Saint Laurent and Balenciaga, also losing around 1.9%. Shares in both Dior and Kerring have since recouped around three-quarters of their losses.

A second hit

The new tariff threat is the second to hit France—and Arnault himself—in recent months. On October 18, the Trump administration imposed tariffs of 10% on large civil aircraft and 25% on European products ranging from whiskey and wine to handbags to men’s suits, in response to $18 billion in government subsidies provided to Airbus by France, Germany, Spain, and the U.K.—subsidies the World Trade Organization has deemed illegal.

This hit a variety of businesses—from Scottish Whiskey distillers to the makers of Roquefort and Gruyère cheese—but the blow to LVMH has been considerable because its Moët Hennessy department controls 26 separate wine and spirit makers, such as Dom Perignon, Krug, Veuve Clicquot, and Hennessy. Its vast fashion holdings also include an array of high-class leather goods manufactured for labels such as Givenchy, Kenzo and Louis Vuitton.

与此同时，美国奢侈品行业也是路威酩轩集团的一个主要市场。根据彭博社的数据，美国消费者在2018年抢购了价值124亿美元的路威酩轩集团的产品——约占其全球销售额的25%。

美法之间的贸易冲突于上周升级，受到冲击最严重的是法国奢侈品行业，标普全球市场情报公司Panjiva的数据显示，该行业占法国对美出口总额的4.1%。总体而言，拟加征关税覆盖63种产品，贸易额约为24亿美元。其中受影响最大的将是美容产品，过去12个月美国的进口额达到8.42亿美元，其次是香槟（8.06亿美元）和手袋（4.34亿美元）。

而美容业巨头法国欧莱雅（L’Oreal）是美国最大的美容产品进口商。路威酩轩集团可能会真正感受到关税带来的痛苦，因为它的产品涵盖了最受影响的三大类别。

路威酩轩集团没有立即回复《财富》杂志的置评请求。

那些处于关税射程内的公司或许仍然能够找到安慰，因为目前加征关税还只是个威胁，并不能够保证一定会实施，尽管局势依旧十分紧张。

法国经济财政部部长布鲁诺·勒梅尔于上周二在接受法国之声（Radio Classique）采访时表示：“这不应该是美国对其主要盟友之一法国以及对整个欧洲的做法。”他说，“我们昨天与欧盟各国进行了接触，确保如果美国征收新的关税，欧洲将作出反应，做出强有力的反应。”

目前，美国和法国之间的冲突似乎远远无法得到解决，因此，阿诺特昂贵的问题也远远无法得到解决。（财富中文网）

译者：Agatha

At the same time, the U.S. luxury goods sector is also a major LVMH market. According to Bloomberg data, U.S. shoppers snapped up $12.4 billion worth of LVMH goods in 2018—around 25% of its global sales.

The U.S.-France conflict that escalated last week strikes at the heart of the French luxury sector, which accounts for 4.1% of total French exports to the U.S, according to Panjiva, S&P Global Market Intelligence. In total, the proposed tariffs target 63 products with an approximate trade value of $2.4 billion. Among these, beauty products will be most affected, having recorded $842 million in U.S. imports over the past 12 months, followed by Champagne ($806 million) and handbags ($434 million).

While beauty giant France’s L’Oreal is the largest shipper of beauty products into the U.S., LVMH is likely to really feel the pain of the tariffs since its product range includes all three top affected categories.

LVMH did not immediately return Fortune’s request for comment.

The firms in the firing line may find solace in the tariffs only being a threat at this point—they're not guaranteed to go into effect—though tensions remain high.

“This is not the sort of behavior one expects from the United States with respect to one of its main allies, France, and to Europe in general,” French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire told Radio Classique on last Tuesday. “We were in contact yesterday with the European Union to ensure that if there are new American tariffs there will be a European response, a strong response,” he said.

For now, the conflict between the U.S. and France seems far from a resolution—and so, in turn, does Arnault’s pricey problem.