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商业 - 房地产

2008美国之后,下一个房地产泡沫会在哪个国家破裂?

Chris Matthews 2014年06月25日

始于美国、最终失控的房地产泡沫导致了发达国家从金融危机以来经历的不景气。目前,英国、加拿大等国又出现了类似的房地产泡沫,引起了经济学家的担忧。

    富裕国家在过去7年经历的经济不景气可以归咎于发端于美国、最终失控的房地产泡沫。

    当然,也存在广大金融体系监管不力等其他问题,这些都导致了这次经济萧条。但若没有房地产泡沫,可能就不会出现金融危机。

    这就是为什么从加拿大到英国等国家类似于房地产泡沫的膨胀引发了经济学家的担忧,因为这些泡沫可能成为日后危机的催化剂。

    6月14日当周,国际货币基金组织(IMF)经济学家朱民(音译)发表了一篇题为《不能再继续善意忽视房价高涨现象》(Era of Benign Neglect of House Price Booms is Over)的文章,对不断高涨的全球房价发出了警告。如何判断一个国家的房价是否过高?朱民给出了自己的解释:

    “理论上,房价、租金和收入从长期来看都应当同步变动。如果房价和租金脱离基准线,人们将在购房和出租之间转换,最终使得两者保持同步。类似地,从长期来看,房价不可能脱离人们的承受能力(即他们的收入)太远。因此,房价收入比常常作为衡量房价是否偏离经济基本面的初步指标。”

    以下来自IMF的图表显示了这样的分析结果,类似加拿大、比利时和瑞典等国家看起来都存在很大的房价泡沫:

    The economic slump that richer countries have suffered during the past seven years can be blamed on a runaway housing bubble that started right here in the U.S.

    Sure, there were other issues–like poor oversight of the broader financial system–that led to the crash. But without the real estate bubble, there would likely have been no financial crisis.

    Which is why the fact that similar-looking bubbles inflating in countries from Canada to the U.K. have economists worried that there might be other catalysts of future crises laying wait for us in the weeds.

    Last week, IMF economist Min Zhu published an article called “Era of Benign Neglect of House Price Booms is Over,” in which he sounded the alarm over rising global home prices. Zhu explains how he determines whether home prices in a particular country are overpriced:

    “Theory asserts that house prices, rents, and incomes should move in tandem over the long run. If house prices and rents get way out of line, people would switch between buying and renting, eventually bringing the two in alignment. Similarly, in the long run, the price of houses cannot stray too far from people’s ability to afford them––that is, from their income. The ratios of house prices to rents and incomes are thus often used as an initial check on whether house prices are out of line with economic fundamentals.”

    The following charts from the IMF show the results of this analysis, with countries like Canada, Belguim and Sweeden appearing to have large housing bubbles on their hands:

上面的图表显示,许多国家的房价依然超出家庭收入的承受范围。

上面的图表显示,许多国家的房价已经与房租脱节。

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