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中国核电项目缘何加码

中国核电项目缘何加码

David Whitford 2013年04月11日
香港中电集团CEO包立贤认为:亚洲能源需求不断飙升,全球石化燃料日益枯竭,要在两者之间寻求平衡,核能是目前唯一可行的道路。

    中电集团(China Light and Power)扎根于香港已有一百多年,至今仍是香港最大的电力公司。但如今,中电集团的业务已经遍布亚洲,不仅是中国大陆最大的外资电力供应商,亦在澳大利亚、印度、泰国和台湾地区投资发展并营运能源项目。

    亚洲能源需求不断飙升,同时全球石化燃料日益枯竭,如何在两者之间寻求平衡已经成为这个时代最大的挑战。业务遍布亚洲的中电集团自然责无旁贷。包立贤持有剑桥大学(Cambridge University)文学硕士及哈佛商学院(Harvard Business School)工商管理硕士学位,在总部设于日内瓦的世界可持续发展工商理事会(World Business Council for Sustainable Development)下属的能源与气候小组担任联席主席。他2000年加入中电集团,出任集团CEO,今年晚些时候,他将会离开中电集团,加入嘉道理父子有限公司(Sir Elly Kadoorie & Sons Limited)。后者是中电集团最大股东嘉道理家族持有的私人公司。本周,他在香港接受了《财富》杂志(Fortune)编辑大卫•威佛德的专访:

    问:目前贵公司使用的各类能源比例为多少?中电集团未来的发展方向是什么?

    答:仅就香港而言,核能占25%。纵观整个中电集团,主要的还是石化燃料,其中煤约占60%,燃气占15%,再加上20%的可再生能源以及5%的核能。

    问:你们不再增建煤电厂了吗?

    答:对,在香港,我们不会再建了。2010年,香港政府就未来整个香港的能源需求进行了民意咨询,提出的主张是:到2020年,全港电力供应中,核电占50%,燃气发电占40%,煤电占10%。我们是中国第一座商用核电站、大亚湾核电站的股东。大亚湾核电站为香港提供约25%的电力。如果香港需要更多核电,我们将追加投入。同时我们也计划投资于为广东供电的核能项目,如:阳江核电站项目。

    问:中电集团将在阳江核电站采用何种核电技术?

    答:和大亚湾核电站一样,采用是压水反应堆技术(Pressurized Water Reactor,缩写为PWR,第二代核电技术)。未来中国会启用第三代核电技术。目前在建的有美国西屋电气公司(Westinghouse)的AP1000技术和法国阿海珐集团公司(AREVA)的EPR技术。同时,中国也正在计划自主研发第三代核电技术。我猜测,他们将通过标准化设计、本土化制造和完善整个供应链达到量产来降低成本。法国人在上世纪70年代和80年代的核电项目就是这样做的。用合理的成本大举兴建核电项目完全可以实现。假设在美国推进一个一次性核电项目,那么所有的监管问题和设计问题所耗费的成本就像气球,会越吹越大。但是如果能把这些前期成本分摊到整个项目中,负担就没那么大了。再加上如果能把整个供应链高效运作起来,就可以大幅降低成本。而这正是中国擅长的。

    China Light and Power's roots are more than a hundred years deep in Hong Kong. It's still the city's largest utility. But today what's known as the CLP Group operates across Asia -- on the mainland (where it's China's biggest foreign electricity producer), and in Australia, India, Thailand, and Taiwan.

    That makes CLP a player in the greatest challenge of our time: How to balance Asia's soaring energy demands with the planet's urgent need to wean itself from fossil fuels. Andrew Brandler, CEO of the CLP Group since 2000, has degrees from Cambridge University and Harvard Business School, and he's co-chair of the energy and climate group within the Geneva-based World Business Council for Sustainable Development. He'll be leaving CLP's corner office later this year to join Sir Elly Kadoorie & Sons Limited, the private company of the Kadoorie Family, CLP's largest shareholder. This week he sat down with Fortune's David Whitford in Hong Kong.

    What is your current fuel mix, and where are you headed?

    In Hong Kong we're 25% nuclear. Across the whole group, it's mostly fossil fuels -- about 60% coal and 15% gas -- plus 20% renewables and 5% nuclear.

    And you're not building any more coal plants?

    In Hong Kong, no, we would not do that. The government in 2010 came out with a public consultation about the future energy needs for the whole of Hong Kong that postulated by 2020 nuclear being 50% of the electricity supply, gas 40%, and coal 10%. We were an investor in China's first commercial nuclear power station at Daya Bay, which supplies about 25% of Hong Kong's electricity. If Hong Kong needs more nuclear, we're keen to invest in that. We're also looking to invest in new nuclear stations that are supplying Guangdong, like the Yangjiang project.

    What technology will you be deploying there?

    It's PWR [pressurized water reactor, second-generation] technology, the same as Daya Bay. China will be moving to third-generation. They are building the [Westinghouse] AP1000, they're building the [Areva] EPR, and they are looking to develop their own versions of each as well as their own third-generation technology. I suspect they will standardize the design, and they will localize the fabrication and get the whole supply chain geared up, and they will mass-produce to get the cost down. This is what the French did in the '70s and '80s with their nuclear program. There's no fundamental reason why you can't implement an aggressive buildout of nuclear power at reasonable cost. If you're doing a one-off project, like in the United States, with all the regulatory issues and design issues, the costs just balloon. But if you can spread all those upfront costs over a whole program, it's not so burdensome. And if you can get the supply chain working -- which China is very good at -- you can bring those costs down dramatically.

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