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高盛和摩根士丹利2012从头再来

高盛和摩根士丹利2012从头再来

Cyrus Sanati 2012年01月11日
低迷的四季报已经呼之欲出,但对高盛和摩根士丹利而言,2012年在一片黯淡之中或许仍然存在一线希望的光芒。

    刚刚过去的这个季度,华尔街的赚钱机器看来运转不佳,忧心忡忡的公司和投资者都回避进入资本市场。欧洲和本国交易业务的困境甚至可能造成华尔街一些鼎鼎有名的公司出现季度亏损。

    上周银行业分析师们终于看清了现实,大幅调低了原先乐观的盈利预期,引发银行股一波重挫。鉴于华尔街发生的所有变化,这本来不应该是什么意外。由于欧洲危机未了,银行业仍然还在摸索新的“轻风险”业务模式,2012年银行类股将继续面临挑战,但随着监管形势的明朗以及新的增长机会出现,华尔街有望早日重现光彩。

    由于节假日集中和年底活动关系,每年的第四季度华尔街的业务都非常清淡。资产管理公司往往会逐渐减少交易量,而公司方面也倾向于推迟到元旦后再公布新的交易。

    但2011年第四季度的业务似乎格外惨淡。分析公司Dealogic的数据显示,当季全球投资银行收入总额预计仅为139亿美元,较上年同期减少37%。由于公司决定延后IPO和增发计划,股票部分预计收入也只有26亿美元,较去年同期骤减67%。当季的并购交易收入预计也有显著下降,华尔街估计仅收入43亿美元,较上年同期缩水约23%。

    投资银行业务淡静的同时,华尔街银行的交易部门业务也同样惨淡。分析师们预计当季华尔街银行为执行更高的资本金要求,缩减了风险投资组合。另外,华尔街银行根据新规剥离利润丰厚的交易部门,预计也会对当季银行净利润带来消极影响。

    The Wall Street money-making machine looks to have malfunctioned badly in the last quarter as nervous companies and investors stayed out of the capital markets. Troubles in Europe and on the trading desks also contributed to what could be a loss-making quarter for some of the Street's biggest names.

    Bank analysts finally got the memo last week and drastically slashed their rosy earnings expectations, sending banks shares down sharply. This should have been no surprise given all the changes happening on Wall Street. The banking sector will continue to face headwinds this year as the crisis in Europe persists and the banks tinker with their new "risk-light" business models. But regulatory clarity and new growth opportunities could help Wall Street get its mojo back sooner rather than later.

    The fourth quarter of the year is usually slow for Wall Street given all the holidays and year-end activities. Asset managers usually ratchet back their trading, while companies tend to put off announcing new deals until after the New Year.

    But the fourth quarter of 2011 seems to have been even slower than usual. Global investment banking revenue is expected to total just $13.9 billion for the quarter, down 37% from the same period last year, according to data from Dealogic. The equity side of the business is expected to have brought in just $2.6 billion, down a whopping 67% from last year as companies decided to put off IPOs and secondary offerings. Revenue from mergers and acquisition is also expected to be down markedly in the quarter, generating an estimated $4.3 billion for Wall Street, down around 23% from last year.

    The muted activity in investment banking is expected to be accompanied by an equally weak showing in the banks' trading divisions. Analysts see the banks lowering their risk profiles in the quarter in order to comply with higher capital mandates. The spinning out of the banks' lucrative trading desks, due to new regulations, is also expected to have had a negative impact on the banks' bottom lines last quarter.

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