扎基指出，有三个因素可以阻止苹果的市盈率继续下跌：

• 定量基金。不管何时苹果的市盈率跌至标普500的平均市盈率（目前为16.42倍）以下，定量基金的电脑都会立即买入，然后苹果股价就会反弹。

• 苹果的现金。苹果有价值1100亿美元的现金和有价证券，分配到股票上就是每股118美元。据扎基估算，按照苹果目前的增长速度，到2016年，这些资产会达到每股460美元。

• 合理性。就最看跌的基金经理也不能忽视苹果的季报。上周苹果公布季报后的股价反弹就显示了这一点。（延伸阅读：《苹果松开弹弓：一天赚入570亿美元》。

    据扎基预测，到今年10月，也就是苹果公布2012年最后一份季报时，它的季度收益将达到每股50.49美元。即便那时它的市盈率只有12.5倍，但那时的股价也将达到每股630美元。如果市盈率上升到15倍，那么届时苹果股价将超过757美元。而且这还不算苹果即将发布新iPhone。

    《Bullish Cross》这本刊物已经被超额认购了，许多人付费去读扎基的博客和每周市场指南。不过这次扎基免费给出了以下建议：

    “苹果股票在中期的两个关键的买入价位是537美元（回撤32.8%）和503美元（回撤50%）。我们相信在537美元的价位上，苹果会给出一个独一无二的买入机会；在503美元的价位上，更是一个千载难逢的买入机会。尽管我们认为苹果股价可能永远也不会跌到503美元，但如果苹果股票真的落到那个价格水平，那就相当于2011年6月的每股310.50美元和2009年3月的每股80美元，（都是千载难逢的买入点。）

    投资者总是喜欢把事情过度复杂化。苹果股价无疑将在2013年1月前冲破750元每股，而且在2013年秋天之前，有可能爬上1000美元大关。

    因此，我们相信眼下最好的做法就是现在就买入，虽说它有可能下降到537美元每股。在苹果股价下跌时，不要理会别人的闲言碎语，用你的明智打败华尔街那帮人。几年之内，苹果将不出一个季度就能卖出1亿台iPhone手机。等到那时，苹果的股价将远远超过1000美元。如果明年苹果股价有超过500美元的上涨空间，谁还在乎损失三五十块呢？别把事情搞得这么复杂。现在就去买入吧。”

    译者：朴成奎

    He cites three factors that keep Apple's P/E from going much lower:

• The quant funds. Whenever Apple's P/E falls below the S&P 500's -- currently 16.42 -- the funds' computers kick in and Apple gets a jump start.

• Apple's cash. Apple's $110 billion in cash and marketable securities works out to $118 a share. At their current rate of growth, Zaky estimates, those holdings will reach $460 a share by 2016.

• Reasonableness. Even the most bearish fund managers can't ignore Apple's quarterly reports, as last week's post-earnings rebound demonstrated. (See The Apple slingshot released: $57 billion in one clock tick.)

    Zaky expects that by October, when Apple issues its final report for fiscal 2012, its quarterly earnings will have reached $50.49 a share. Even at 12.5 times earnings, that's $630 a share. At 15 times earnings, it's over $757. And that's without a new iPhone.

    Bullish Cross has been oversubscribed for some time by members who pay to read Zaky's live blog and weekly market guidance. But he offers this advice for free:

    "The two key levels of support for Apple's stock in the intermediate term are $537 (32.8% retracement) and $503 (50% retracement) a share. We believe Apple presents with a unique buying opportunity at $537 and an extraordinarily rare opportunity at $503 a share. While we don't believe the stock will ever see $503 a share, if Apple does reach that level, it would be the equivalent of $310.50 in June 2011 or $80.00 a share in March 2009.

    Investors tend to overcomplicate things. Apple will undoubtedly see $750 a share by January 2013 and will likely see $1,000 no later than the fall of 2013.

    Thus, we believe the best thing to do is just to go in and buy now, ride any potential drawdown to $537 a share, ignore all of the nonsense you are likely to hear on the way down and beat Wall Street by being smart enough to realize what they often do not. And that is the fact that Apple will inevitably sell 100 million iPhones a quarter within the next few years. When that happens, Apple will be trading far north of $1,000 a share. Who cares about a $30 - $50 drawdown when there is over $500 in upside for the stock over the next year or so. Don't make things so complicated. Just go in and buy."