As global markets continue to see-saw on the verge of another recession, central banks across the world face a difficult balancing act of monetary policy. Massive injections of stimulus funds have been deployed in many cases, creating outstanding balances of sovereign debt that may take decades to resolve. Other banks are hinting at reduced stimulus funding and higher interest rates, fueling fears that sudden inflation could damage the economic recovery.
Although imperfect, these central bank actions have been helpful in moderating the severity of economic cycles over time. However, more recently, some bankers have adopted policies intended not to moderate but rather to manipulate domestic currency exchange rates and gain advantage on the global playing field. This "currency war," although far different from its military namesake, has equally significant implications for free-market global trade.
Many economists cite China, which relies heavily on exports to fuel its fast-growing economy, as a key influencer in the currency imbalance. According to these economists, the nation has long followed a policy of injecting large sums of money into its economy and buying debt from other nations. This has the effect of undervaluing the Chinese yuan compared to other currencies, and lowering the relative cost of Chinese goods shipped abroad. Other nations, which seek to sell their own goods to China, face higher relative export prices as a result.
Ironically, China's monetary policies have not been successful in controlling domestic inflation, as both wages and consumer prices are rising steadily. According to recent IMF data, consumer prices in China increased 5% in 2010 compared to about 1.6% in the U.S. and euro zone. Chinese wages and skilled worker wage expectations are growing even more rapidly, as the country approaches a Lewisian Turning Point-type phenomenon – the economic theory named after Arthur Lewis where demand for labor begins to outpace the available supply.
There is much debate among economists as to whether Western nations should counter China's monetary policy by deflating their own currencies. Although this might temporarily reduce the cost of goods exported from the West, the resulting debt would further weaken their balance sheets and pass the consequences of short-term thinking to future generations.
