诺基亚首席执行官史蒂芬•埃洛普曾表示，诺基亚（Nokia）与微软（Microsoft）的合作，将在移动操作系统领域形成“三足鼎立”之势。他实际暗示苹果（Apple）iOS和谷歌（Google）Android是仅有的两个可与诺基亚-微软一较高下的移动生态系统。不过，Asymco的贺拉斯•德迪欧对此持不同看法，他对移动操作系统的历史做了一番发掘，绘制出了以上图表。

    该图显示了历史上16种主要移动操作系统的生命周期，其中一些已经被淘汰，还有两种操作系统——塞班（Symbian）和MeeGo，诺基亚似乎正准备放弃。

    德迪欧表示：“我发现值得注意的是，该市场似乎隐约有一种奇怪的宿命，那就是当人们认为只有两种平台能够生存下来时，这两种平台的历史都未超过3年。在参加全球移动大会（Mobile World Congress）期间，我意识到这样的结论有些为时过早，就像几年前，苹果和谷歌刚一进入市场，就被宣判死刑一样。”

    译者：项航

    To counter Stephen Elop's remark that by joining forces, Nokia (NOK) and Microsoft (MSFT) were going to make it a "three horse race" -- implying that Apple's (AAPL) iOS and Google's (GOOG) Android were the only other viable mobile ecosystems in the running -- Asymco's Horace Dediu did some digging and produced the chart at right.

    It shows the lifespan of 16 major mobile operating systems, several of which have died and two more -- Symbian and MeeGo -- that Nokia seems ready to put out to pasture.

    "What I find noteworthy," writes Dediu, "is that there is an implied peculiar fatalism about the market when only two platforms are considered viable, neither of which are more than 3 years old. While visiting the Mobile World Congress, I sensed this jumping to conclusions about platforms was eerily similar to that of a few years ago when new entrants like Apple and Google were declared dead on arrival."