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排行榜 - 全球最具影响力的商界女性 - 2012年

10亿女性将如何改变商界?

DeAnne Aguirre 2012年10月09日

仅仅未来的十年之内,就有近10亿女性将进入全球经济领域。尤其是在包括中国在内的新兴经济体,女性将在经济领域拥有越来越大的发言权。这样破天荒的变化会给全球经济运行带来怎样的改变?

    如果让您列出未来几十年可能对商界影响最大的一些因素,你也许会举出一些共同的主题:科技演变,市场全球化,西方国家的财政挑战,等等。但有一个因素或许是你没有想到的,那就是女性。

    根据我们的研究,仅未来十年,就将首次有近10亿女性进入全球经济领域。她们将极大地改变全球的商业和经济世界。

    这些女性是谁?我们称她们为“第三个10亿”,因为她们的经济影响绝不会亚于中国或印度各自的10多亿人口。虽然如今这些女性在很多市场中都被忽视,在另一些市场中受到压制,但无论是作为员工,还是企业家,她们正日益在全球经济中占据一席之地。用不了太久,她们也将在管理层中拥有自己的位置。一旦她们开始赢得领导地位,她们将改变全球众多知名机构的经济潜力和企业文化。

    迄今为止,这些女性缺乏一些基本的条件,无法为国家经济做贡献。她们中有的人没有受到过必要的教育和就业培训,但更多是因为法律、家庭、后勤或经济原因而没有工作。根据国际劳工组织(International Labour Organization)的数据,到2020年将有约8.65亿的工作年龄(20-65岁)女性,其中8.12亿居住在新兴国家和发展中国家。

    这支劳动大军的兴起对于私营部门是一个极大的机会。无论是在装配线上,是担任电话销售,还是出现在研发实验室或董事会会议室内,女性参与度的提高都将推动增长,打开新的市场。深知这一点的公司早已采取措施,更好地融合全球女性。

    比如,高盛(Goldman Sachs)推出了为期五年的“万名女性”(10,000 Women)计划,拿出1亿美元为女性企业家们提供商业和管理培训。这些女性的企业发展已经超越了小微贷款层面,但尚未有足够的资信获得传统融资。该计划目前在22个国家运作,有超过80个本地合作伙伴,提供经营、人力资源和商业计划发展等实务培训。截至2012年5月,已有超过6,000名女性已经报名参与计划,或者已经结业。目前,高盛已经开始和公共部门及非政府组织合作,扩大计划覆盖面。

    有些国家目前仍然在努力走出经济低迷的困境,女性对这些国家意味着更大的机会。我们的保守估算显示,在美国,如果女性就业率追平男性,总体GDP将增加5%。在日本,这样的变化将使GDP增加9%。

    在发展中国家,这一效应将更加显著。阿联酋的GDP将由此增加12%,埃及增加34%。

    “第三个10亿”的崛起部分源于一些思想进步的国家意识到女性带来的经济机会,因而着手采取措施帮助她们。它们为女孩们提供更多的受教育机会、制定养老托幼政策、支持创业家以及推行女性公平就业政策。

    所有这些变化带来了一个有意思的问题:随着更多女性加入就业大军,未来几十年《财富》杂志“最具影响力女性排行榜”会有怎样的变化?更具体点,比如到2040年,将会是怎样一个状况?虽然没有人能够准确的预测未来,但我们对此还是有些大概的想法。

    If you were to list the factors with the biggest potential impact on the business world over the next few decades, you'd likely cite some common themes - evolving technology, the globalization of markets, and fiscal challenges in Western countries, perhaps. But here's one you might not have considered: women.

    According to our research, nearly 1 billion women will enter the global economy for the first time in the coming decade alone. And they will dramatically reshape the world of business and economies, globally.

    Who are these women? We call them the "third billion," in that their economic impact will be just as significant as that of the billion-plus populations in China or India, respectively. While these women have been overlooked in many markets -- and actively suppressed in others -- they are increasingly taking their place in the global economy, as both employees and entrepreneurs. It will not be long before they take their place as executives as well. Once these women begin to earn positions of leadership, they will change the economic potential and corporate culture of the world's most esteemed organizations.

    To date, these women have lacked the fundamental requirements needed to contribute to their national economies. They either haven't had the necessary education and training to work, or -- more frequently -- they simply couldn't, because of legal, familial, logistical, or financial issues. Of the roughly 865 million women who will be of working age (between the ages of 20 and 65) by 2020, according to the International Labour Organization, 812 million live in emerging and developing nations.

    For the private sector, this emerging workforce represents a significant opportunity. Greater participation from women -- on the assembly line, on sales calls, in R&D labs, and in the boardroom -- can inspire growth and open new markets. Companies that understand this are already taking measures to better integrate women around the world.

    For example, Goldman Sachs (GS) launched the 10,000 Women initiative, a five-year, $100 million effort to provide business and management education to female entrepreneurs. These women have grown beyond microfinance but don't yet have the track record to access traditional forms of capital. The program, now operating in 22 countries and working with more than 80 local partners, provides practical training in operations, human resources, and business plan development. As of May 2012, more than 6,000 women had enrolled in or graduated from the program, and Goldman has begun working with the public sector and nongovernmental organizations to increase the program's reach.

    For countries struggling to break out of economic doldrums, women represent an even bigger opportunity. Our estimates (which are conservative) show that if female employment rates were to match male employment rates in the United States, overall gross domestic product (GDP) would increase by 5%. In Japan, such a change could raise GDP by 9%.

    In developing economies, the effect will be even more pronounced. The United Arab Emirates would see a boost of 12% in GDP, and the Egyptian economy would grow by 34%.

    The rising tide of the third billion is being enabled, in part, by progressive-minded countries that recognize the economic opportunity that women present and are taking steps to empower them. They're offering better access to education for girls, instituting policies regarding the care of children and the elderly, supporting entrepreneurs, and enforcing access-to-work policies for women.

    All of these changes raise an intriguing question: As more women join the workforce over time, how will Fortune's Most Powerful Women (MPW) list change in the coming decades? More specifically, what will it look like in, say, 2040? While no one knows for sure, we have some ideas.

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