此外，任何可能造成伊朗石油完全停产的重大冲突将会产生重要的溢出效应。虽然伊朗不太可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡石油通道（市场“所谓的威胁”之一），但是如果真的出现这样的局面，它不仅会切断伊朗本国主要的石油出口，还会切断大沙特主要的石油出口。全世界正在交易的石油中约20%（约1,700万桶）每天要通过霍尔木兹海峡，其中大部分石油来自沙特。唯一的替代方案就是通过横贯沙特东西的745英里石油管道进入红海。这条管道的额定运载能力只有500万桶/天，仅相当于沙特目前产能的一半。与此同时，一旦出现这种情形，伊拉克、科威特和阿拉伯联合奠长国的石油出口也会受到严重的影响。

    伊朗关闭海峡的可能性微乎其微，因为它在经济上无异于自杀。但是，华尔街好像认为，这种情况或者其他类似情况足以为原油市场的买进来提供了充分的理由。目前，这种思维方式已经造成了油价的螺旋式上涨。

    如今，将高油价归咎于投机者已不是什么新鲜事。新鲜的事，石油市场最大的投机者之一高盛投资公司（Goldman Sachs）承认，大规模投机行为确实对油价产生了影响。至于影响有多大，高盛投资公司的石油分析人士上月发表文章表示，投机者每买进100万桶石油净长仓期货，石油价格就会上涨10美分。目前，市场上的258,406份原油合同（相当于2.58亿桶石油），使得美国的标准原油或西德克萨斯轻质原油（WTO）处于净长仓状态。以每100万桶石油涨10美分计算，投机行为使每桶石油价格增加25.80美元——如果没有过度投机，石油的交易价格本应在81.52美元左右。

    石油价格的溢价，与市场和恐惧溢价两者都有关联。消极的投资基金偏于做多，交易所买卖基金（ETF）和商品牛市使原油合同始终属于净长仓类别。伊朗形势推动的恐惧溢价加剧了油价的扭曲程度。只要华尔街存有忧虑，恐惧溢价就会持续存在。所以，即使沙特敞开供应，满足市场原油需求，填补任何可能出现的供应缺口，也不可能真正发挥作用，除非首先解决投机问题。

    下次，美国总统去中东讨论高价石油和汽油问题前，应该先去视察一下华尔街，或许这才是明智之举。

    译者：乔树静/汪皓

    Furthermore, any major conflict that would see Iranian production reduced to zero would have major spill-over effects. In the unlikely event that Iran did close the Straits of Hormuz, one of the market's "perceived threats," that would not only cut off the bulk of Iran's own oil exports, but it would also cut off the bulk of Saudi Arabia's exports. Around 20% of the world's traded oil, some 17 million barrels, passes through the Straits every day. Most of that oil comes from Saudi Arabia. The only alternative is to ship the oil across the country via the 745 mile East-West pipeline that dumps out into the Red Sea. The pipeline has a nameplate capacity of just 5 million barrels a day, half of the Kingdom's current production. In addition, oil exports from Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE would be severely disrupted in such a scenario.

    The chance Iran would close the Straits is very small as it would be the equivalent of committing economic suicide. But Wall Street seems to think that this scenario or something equivalent is plausible enough to go long the crude markets. This has created an upward spiral in prices.

    Now, blaming speculators for high prices is nothing new. What is new is that one of the largest speculators in the oil markets, none other than Goldman Sachs (GS), admitting that heavy speculation does have an impact on oil prices. How much? Well, Goldman's oil analyst wrote in a note last month that every million barrel equivalent of oil futures that was net long the market adds 10 cents to the price of oil. The market is currently net long US benchmark crude, or WTI, by 258,406 contracts which is equivalent to 258 million barrels of oil. At 10 cents per every million barrels, that would mean speculation is currently adding $25.80 to every barrel of oil -- without the excess speculation, oil would trade at around $81.52.

    This premium in the oil price is part market-specific and part fear premium. Passive investment funds that have a long bias, ETFs and commodity bulls keep the crude contract in the net long category usually all the time. The fear premium added by the Iranian situation has just exacerbated this distortion in the price. This fear premium will continue for as long as Wall Street is worried. So even if Saudi Arabia could flood the market with oil and plug any perceived supply shortage, it wouldn't make a difference unless this overhang in speculation is addressed.

    The next time the President heads to the Middle East to discuss high oil and gasoline prices, he would be wise to make a pit stop on Wall Street.