“苹果每进入一个市场，就重塑一个市场。”投资银行Piper Jaffray的分析师吉恩•明斯特在周二致客户的报告中重申了他再三重复的信念，即苹果公司（Apple）的下一个力作将是苹果品牌的电视机。

    诚然，明斯特已经调低了自己的期望值。此前，他曾预测，苹果公司将在2009年销售660万台苹果电视机顶盒，并在2011年推出完全成熟的电视机。到苹果公司2011财年，苹果电视的年销量仍然不足300万台。然而，2011年来了又走了，蒙斯特近四年来一直在鼓吹的苹果电视机还是迟迟没有现身。

    这份报告的新意在于，明斯特在报告中提到，上月曾与某“电视部件主要供应商”交谈，对方声称苹果公司曾与其接洽，谈及“其电视显示组件的各种功能”。联系到去年曾有报告称，苹果正大力投资于生产设施，以打造50英寸液晶屏幕，并称苹果电视机原型正在开发中。有鉴于此，蒙斯特相信，苹果正蓄势待发，准备进入所谓的联网电视市场，目标是在2012年晚些时候推出。

    不过明斯特承认，时间表“目前仍无法确定。”

    明斯特补充道：“我们认为苹果只会进入成熟行业并重塑这个行业，智能手机就是一个例子。没有看到完善的电视节目方案之前，我们认为苹果不会贸然闯进电视行业。”

    完善的电视节目方案是什么？明斯特设想了三种可能：（以下为原文引用）

    1.对苹果而言，最简单的方案莫过于和多业务运营商合作（MSO，例如有线电视公司），让苹果电视具备统一接口以管理用户的实况电视服务，这和TiVo（美国的一种数字录像机，提供电视导航功能——译注）的做法很像。早在苹果开发iPhone时，许多投资者就预期苹果会成为一家移动虚拟网络运营商。但苹果却选择了与美国电话电报公司（AT&T，当时是Cingular）合作，来将iPhone推向美国市场。同样，为了降低成本，节约资源，苹果这次还是可以选择与多业务运营商合作以切入实况电视市场，使苹果电视具备实况转播、有线电视等功能。虽然这项方案最简单，可能性也最大，但其变革相对也是最小的。从技术角度，该方案与目前TiVo所具备的功能很像：与多业务运营商合作，向观众提供统一的数字录像/节目导航软件接口，让搜索和发现节目变得更为便利。在某种程度上，苹果能够推出的最与众不同的东西是联网电视软件。因此，对电视市场而言，该方案仍能带来一款令人耳目一新的产品。当然，苹果也许还会将iTunes的电影租赁和购买服务也补充到苹果电视中。

    "Apple enters markets to reinvent them," wrote Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster in a note to clients Tuesday reiterating his oft-repeated conviction that Apple's (AAPL) next big thing is an Apple-branded television set.

    To be sure, Munster has scaled back his expectations since he predicted that the company would sell 6.6 million Apple TV set-top boxes in 2009 and launch a full-blown TV set in 2011. By fiscal 2011, Apple was still selling fewer than 3 million Apple TVs a year, and calendar 2011 came and went without the television set whose drum Munster has been beating for nearly four years.

    The new data point in his Tuesday note is a conversation Munster had last month with a "major TV component supplier" who said it had been contacted by Apple "regarding various capabilities of their television display components." Putting this together with reports last year that Apple was investing heavily in manufacturing facilities to build 50-inch LCD screens and that prototypes of an Apple television were in the works, Munster remains confident that Apple is poised to enter the so-called connected TV market, targeting a late 2012 launch.

    But the timing, he concedes, "remains uncertain."

    "We believe that Apple only enters mature markets with the goal of revolutionizing them, as it did with the smartphone," he writes, adding: "Without a revamped TV content solution, we do not think Apple enters the TV market."

    What might a revamped TV content solution look like? Munster offers three scenarios: (I quote)

    1. Apple could simply enable its television to manage a consumer's live TV service from within a unified interface much like TiVo does, partnering with MSOs [i.e. the cable companies]. As Apple was developing the iPhone many investors expected the company to become an MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator). Instead, the company partnered with AT&T (then Cingular) to bring the iPhone to market in the U.S. Similarly, Apple could choose to avoid the cost and effort of entering the live TV services business and simply partner with MSOs to deliver live, cable TV to the Apple Television. While this would be the easiest and most likely option, it would also be the least revolutionary. Technically, this option would function much like TiVo does today: partnering with MSOs and offering a unified DVR/guidance software interface to make search and discovery easier for the viewer. In some ways, a connected TV's software is the biggest differentiator that Apple can bring to the table, so this option could still result in a new and fresh product for the television market. Apple could also supplement this with its iTunes Movie rental and purchase service directly on the television.