2011年，云计算技术证明，自己是推动IT行业变革的主要推动力。不同类型和规模的机构均开始正式采用混合云技术，也就是公共云与私有云计算综合服务。2012我们将迎来什么？

私有云不仅不会消失，还会继续发展壮大。

    最初的许多云计算项目都是源于开发人员对缓慢的IT配置能力的不满。于是，他们抓住机会，从公共云服务提供商处获得原始计算能力，而代价只不过是一张公司信用卡而已。于是，有权威人士称，IT的功能已经成为历史，公共云才是“唯一法门”。而私有云是机构内部专用的按需IT基础设施，因此可以说它并不是“真正的云技术”。而且公共云服务提供商认为，私有云没有存在的必要，因为它不够灵活，而且造价昂贵。但我认为这种说法纯属“自以为是”。

    这种说法存在两个问题。首先是内在的自相矛盾：公司目前正在使用私有云提供灵活、按需提供的计算环境，因此不能苛责IT部门不够灵活。另外一个问题是，机构之所以认为在现有数据中心中配置私有云更加容易、便宜存在大量现实的商业原因。其中一个例子实私有云具备成熟的、获得监管部门批准的安全防护与数据隐私控制操作和流程。

    理论上，在哪里进行计算并不重要，但实际上却并非如此。笔者曾经参加过一次圆桌会议，会上华尔街的一位CIO曾这样说：“当然得考虑风险问题。如果可以在私有云上运行应用程序，审查也不存在问题，为什么要使用外部云服务？”

私有云将继续壮大

    公共云的使用推动了计算技术的革新，尤其是对于一些难以预测的面向客户的应用程序。而私有云在公司处理监管机构、标准和其他对运行企业应用程序至关重要的非技术问题时非常关键。对云技术的选择主要取决于公司和应用程序的需求，因此，未来合理综合公共云与私有云的混合云，仍将是大多数公司的实用选择。

    In 2011, cloud computing demonstrated that it was a major driver of change in the IT industry. Organizations of all types and sizes began using the hybrid cloud -- a combination of public and private cloud computing -- in earnest. What can we look forward to in 2012?

The private cloud won't go away, but grow bigger.

    Many early cloud projects were the result of developers frustrated by slow IT provisioning times. They took advantage of the ability to get rapid access to raw computing power from public cloud providers using little more than a corporate credit card. This lead pundits to posit that IT's function had failed and that the public cloud was the One True Way. Thus the private cloud, a dedicated on-demand IT infrastructure within the four walls of an organization, was somehow not "true cloud," and public cloud providers argued that private cloud should not exist because it wasn't flexible or cheap. I call this the "holier than thou" argument.

    There are two problems with this idea. The first is an inherent contradiction: one cannot castigate IT departments for being inflexible when they are using private cloud to deliver a flexible, on-demand computing environment for their businesses. The second is that there are plenty of pragmatic business reasons why organizations find it easier and cheaper to deploy within existing data centers. Established, regulator-approved security and data privacy controls and processes are one example.

    In theory it shouldn't matter where computing is done, but in practice it matters a lot. As one Wall Street CIO put it at a roundtable I attended: "Of course risk is the issue. If I can run it [the application] on a private cloud and pass audit, why run it elsewhere?"

The hybrid cloud will continue to grow.

    Public cloud usage has driven a revolution in computing, especially for hard-to-forecast customer-facing applications. Private clouds are essential to organizations dealing with regulators, standards and other non-technical issues that are crucial to running business applications. The choice is driven by the needs of the business and the application, ensuring that hybrid clouds, making use of both public and private clouds as appropriate, will continue to be the pragmatic decision for most organizations.