谁将成为艾伦·穆拉利的继任者，出任福特汽车公司（Ford）的首席执行官？本周，美国权威汽车周报《汽车新闻》（Automotive News）在头版刊发了一篇报道，之后，这场竞猜游戏进入了最后关头。这篇报道的标题是“福特内部涌现4位首席执行官候选人”。它揣测，穆拉利的继任者到底是像他一样的外来者，还是公司现有的高管之一。

    实际上，据内部人士透露，福特公司的继任者竞赛已经接近尾声，只待正式公布结果。现在悬而未决的两大问题是：穆拉利到底何时退休？福特又将如何处理好这次权力交接过程？

    福特汽车的高管继任是底特律经久不衰、广受关注的一大传统赛事。历史上，跌宕起伏的接班大戏曾多次上演。1945年，亨利·福特二世首次拉开了大幕。当时，他从神智恍惚的祖父和居心叵测的手下哈里·班尼特手里夺得了公司的控制大权。此后，大戏接连上演：1978年，李·艾克卡遭解雇；1989年，唐·彼得森遭驱逐；1999年，阿历克斯·特罗特曼的退休闹得沸沸扬扬；2001年，杰克·纳赛尔过早离开了公司。

    2006年，穆拉利首次从波音公司（Boeing）转投福特，当时有关其继任者的揣测之声就不绝于耳，并且日渐响亮。考虑到福特历史上的交接大戏，这种反应就丝毫不足为怪了。除了公司员工和行业观察家，投资者对这一动向也保持着密切关注。在穆拉利主政的过去三年半中，福特的股价上涨了5倍，福特以前所未有的大手笔重新开始派发红利。其实没有人会太在意管理层变动引发的震惊。

    今年8月，穆拉利刚过66岁，他还是显得年富力强。无论是他还是执行总裁比尔·福特，谁都没有做过任何暗示他将于何时下台。本周，随着《汽车新闻》这篇报道的出台，他们将面临的压力进一步升级，必须给出一个说法。这篇报道其实没有任何新意，它只是把三年多前那场不同寻常的面试重新拿来炒了炒冷饭。那场面试正是由公司人力资源前总裁乔·雷蒙主持。

    雷蒙心直口快，喜欢炫耀自己是多么了解公司的内部运作机制。2008年，他宣布，福特公司有6位候选人将成为穆拉利的继任者。这一明显欠妥的公告发布一周后，雷蒙就黯然下台。而他的这种假定到底有多精确则从未获得过确认。

    自那以后，雷蒙所谓的“6大接班人”中的一位，首席财务官唐·雷克莱尔，也离开了公司。而第二位，即斯蒂夫·奥德尔，则在目前的欧洲经济危机中忙于让福特欧洲分公司维持正常运转，因此可以推断，他没资格入选首席执行官的候选名单。

    The guessing game about who will succeed Alan Mulally as Ford CEO moved into the late innings this week with a front-page article in Automotive News. In a story headlined "4 top CEO candidates emerge inside Ford," it speculated on whether Mulally's successor would be an outsider like him or someone already working at the company.

    In fact, insiders say the Ford (F) succession race is all but over, and all that's left is the official announcement. The two big questions remaining: When will Mulally actually retire, and how will Ford handle the transition?

    Executive succession at Ford is one of Detroit's enduring spectator sports. There have been any number of dramatic transitions, beginning in 1945 when Henry Ford II wrested control of the company from his confused grandfather and his thuggish underling Harry Bennett. They include the firing of Lee Iacocca in 1978, the ousting of Don Petersen in 1989, the noisy retirement of Alex Trotman in 1999, and the premature departure of Jac Nasser in 2001.

    With that history, it is not surprising that there has been speculation about Mulally's successor almost since he arrived from Boeing (BA) in 2006 and the noise level has been increasing ever since. In addition to employees and industry watchers, investors are paying close attention. Mulally has presided over a five-fold increase in Ford's stock price in the last three-and-a-half years and Ford is on the cusp of resuming dividend payments. Any surprise about management changes would not be well received.

    Mulally turned a vigorous 66 in August and neither he nor executive chairman Bill Ford has given any hints when he will step down. The pressure on them to make a decision ratcheted up a notch this week with the News story. It wasn't based on any fresh information but instead recycled an unusual interview given more than three years ago by the company's former human resources head Joe Laymon.

    The irrepressible Laymon, who liked to show off his knowledge of the company's inner workings, announced in 2008 that there were six inside candidates at the company to succeed Mulally. One week after that impolitic disclosure, Laymon left Ford. The accuracy of his supposition has never been confirmed.

    Since then, one of Laymon's "Big Six", chief financial officer Don LeClair, has also left the company, and a second, Steve Odell, is busy keeping Ford of Europe afloat during the EU's economic crisis and is thus presumably disqualified from current consideration for the CEO's.