上周五，加皇资本市场(RBC capital)的迈克•阿布拉姆斯基率先就富士康(Foxconn)成都工厂爆炸一事对苹果公司(Apple)的影响向客户发出报告。

    阿布拉姆斯基认为，成都工厂是iPad 2的两个主要生产基地之一，另一个是富士康原先的深圳工厂。但他的消息人士对这两家工厂的相对重要性有不同看法。有些人相信大部分iPad是在成都生产，而其他人表示之前成都已遇到增产问题，大部分iPad仍在深圳生产。

    据此，他相应地给出了两种情境（以下是我的引用）：

    1) 业务影响严重。这种情境假定成都工厂生产大部分iPad，此次爆炸影响严重；换言之，苹果无法通过其他生产基地弥补产量，6月底前无法恢复量产。如果是这样的情况，对苹果公司截至6月份的第三财季将产生负面影响；成都工厂停产至6月底，可能相当于第三财季损失180-280万台iPad产量，占我们预期的第三财季iPad 总800万台发货量的22-36%。如果到6月底富士康无法恢复正常生产，也可能导致2011财年第四财季(截至9月份)出现产量缺口。在这种情境下，第三财季受影响的营收可能为11-17亿美元(4-7%)，受影响每股收益将为0.35-0.55美元(6-9%)，以当前估值，这意味着苹果股价有5-7美元的下跌空间。

    2) 业务影响不那么严重。这种情境假定大部分iPad仍由深圳生产，未受影响，或是富士康成都工厂能很快恢复iPad生产。估计只有1个月的产量受影响，可能相当于第三财季减产量不到130万台，对第四财季影响有限。在这种情境下，受影响营收将不到8亿美元(<3%)，受影响每股收益不到0.26美元 (<4%)，以当前估值计，这意味着苹果股价下行空间不到3美元。

    上周五苹果股价仅下跌1%，在阿布拉姆斯看来这说明投资者在消化情境2。(当日，苹果收盘再跌0.5%，报335.22美元。)

    RBC capital's Mike Abramsky was the first analyst out of the gate Friday with a note to clients assessing the effect on Apple (AAPL) of the explosion at Foxconn's Chengdu plant.

    According to Abramsky, the plant is one of two primary manufacturing sites where the iPad 2 is produced, the other being Foxconn's original Shenzhen facility. His sources disagree, however, about the two plants' relative importance. Some believe the majority of iPads were being manufactured at Chengdu; others say that Chengdu was having trouble ramping up, and that the majority of iPads were still being manufactured in Shenzhen.

    Accordingly, he offers two scenarios: (I quote)

    1) Serious Business Impact.Under this scenario, Chengdu manufactures most iPads and the explosion is serious; i.e. Apple is unable to utilize alternatives or get back on stream by June. If so, it could be negative for Apple's Q3 (June); stoppage of Chengdu until end June may equate to the lost production of 1.8-2.8M units Q3, which is 22-36% of our expectations for 8M iPad shipments Q3. If Foxconn is unable to pick up the slack by June, it could also cause production shortages for Q4/F11 (end Sept). Under this scenario, Q3 revenue may be impacted by $1.1-1.7B (4-7%) and EPS $0.35-0.55 (6-9%), which at current valuation represents $5-7 downside to shares.

    2) Less Serious Business Impact.Under this scenario, either Shenzhen still makes most iPads and is unaffected, and/or Foxconn is able to re-start iPad production quickly at Chengdu. Estimating a 1 month production impact, would perhaps equate to <1.3M units Q3 with limited impact to Q4. Under this scenario, revenue would be impacted by <$800M (<3%) and EPS <$0.26 (<4%) which at current valuation represents less than $3 downside to shares.

    The fact that Apple's shares dropped only 1% on Friday suggests to Abramsky that investors are pricing in scenario 1. (Apple fell another 0.5% to close the day at $335.22.)