Prasad Kaipa,John Edson 2013年04月27日










    • iWatch. 虽然网上有关它的预测很多,但真正的iWatch绝不是那样的。它不是戴在我们手上的缩小版iPhone,也不可能是另一种耐克Fuelband或FitBit(两者都是运动设备——译注)。这是一款配备了大量感应装置的独一无二的苹果手环,必将抓住所有人的眼球。有关iWatch的传言带来了一丝希望。不过,和其他人不同,我们认为iWatch将类似一款可佩戴鼠标产品。围绕手臂的感应器能让你更好地与苹果产品互动;忘掉屏幕解锁吧,iWatch的自我感应能完全自动地做到这一点。它能否充当基于iTunes商店的实体采购的媒介?或者是作为其它设备的实体3D鼠标接口?又或者在面谈中充当无线通讯设备?

    In the wake of Apple's (AAPL) better-than-expected earnings report on Tuesday, many are giving the company's cheap stock a second look. There's an even better reason to revisit Apple, however. Tim Cook has been humbled, and now he's reintroducing the company's original profit driver: disruptive innovation.

    Cook has always been a smart leader when it comes to operations. He built his reputation by building a global supply chain that reliably delivers millions of products at managed costs to consumers all over the world. He also knew when to build bridges (like he did with HTC), when to fight (like he is doing with Samsung), and when to apologize (like he did with Apple Maps andservice in China).

    Under Cook's leadership, we've seen Apple Maps, a new (thicker, heavier) iPad, the iPad mini, and many smaller product improvements across the board. But we received no new products in March. Can Apple turn this trend around?

    We believe it can, and we believe Tim Cook is the man to do it. That's because, like many leaders who evolve from being merely smart to wise, he is showing evidence of leadership changes.

    Rumors are circulating that the iPhone will be coming in three different sizes this summer. Following the small-medium-large pattern of Apple's other products, the iPhone may finally break through its singular form factor to appeal to different people for different reasons in different markets. Presumably, this change will help Apple compete on price with Samsung and others that occupy the space between smartphones and tablets. The smaller iPad, the Mini, forged this terrain in a similar way, responding to the success of Android tablets in that format.

    Where is the disruptive design innovation and charisma that Apple sustained for over a decade? They are going to spring from Tim Cook's willingness to give freer rein to Jonathan Ive, Apple's senior vice president of industrial design and the genius behind many of Apple's marquee products.

    Cheap, humbled, and now disruptive. This is the vector along which Apple is going to succeed. With the recent departures in Apple's executive suite, Ive has more power and influence than ever. It takes a wise leader to let another person soar in the power hierarchy, but Cook is doing precisely that.

    To quote industry analyst Horace Dediu, disruption "in the literal sense implies discomfort, displacement, and even destruction. But it's necessary to the health of any economy. The analogy to biology is that death is the most important thing in life."

    How can Apple rise anew? Here are three areas where Apple may surprise us:

    • iWatch. This won't be anything like what we've seen predicted online. This won't be a shrunken iPhone that we strap to our wrists, and it won't be a regurgitated version of the Nike Fuelband or FitBit. It will be a uniquely Apple twist on what you could do with a cluster of sensors on your wrist. And it will be seductive. Glimmers of hope come from the rumors of the iWatch. Unlike others, we imagine that this will be a wearable mouse of sorts. Sensors on your body will make interaction with any Apple product better. It will eliminate the lock screen because it self-identifies. Could this be a vehicle for iTunes store-based brick-and-mortar purchases? A physical 3-D mouse interface for your devices? A Dick Tracy device for face-to-face conversations?

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