美国石油公司面临中国无人机威胁

过去十年中，比能源工业改变更大的重要经济部门，恐怕只有国防工业了。如今的军事技术与十年前相比发生了翻天覆地的变化，近来的军事新闻满是关于无人机、轨道炮、射线武器、隐形战斗机、隐形驱逐舰和网络战争的报道，尽管这些技术上的进步并不局限于国防领域。

以无人机为例。无人机代表的是军事实力理论的根本变化——飞机，甚至一些地面车辆，都能通过远程人为控制和预设计算机程序相结合的方式，在数千英里之外工作。这种技术正在彻底地改变石油和天然气行业的方方面面，而这对美国公司而言喜忧参半。

从积极的方面来看，无人机正在迅速成为石油工业削减成本的最佳手段之一。石油公司不必再掏钱让人从一个油井跑到另一个油井，或是沿着油管检查哪里有问题，这些苦活现在都可以让无人机完成。现场勘探，生产监控和安全排查也可以让无人机代劳，这些无人机可以自动驾驶，许多美国供应商都能以合理的价格提供这种服务。

然而，无人机对美国的石油公司也有负面作用，可能会威胁到他们未来面对国外公司的竞争力。这种威胁来自中国。军用无人机可能是最适合携带导弹袭击地面目标的方式之一，它的成本要比传统野战装备低很多。在美国，标准的军用无人机售价约为500万美元，而在中国，同样的无人机售价可能只有100万至200万美元。与售价动辄高达几千万美元的传统战斗机相比，这只是一个零头。在许多技术参数上，美国的无人机都要优于中国无人机，但两国的产品对寻求廉价空军力量的第三世界军队而言，都十分有用。

美国和美国公司的问题在于，该国是冷战时期防卫条约的签署国。这份名为《导弹及其技术控制制度》（MTCR）的条约旨在限制出售用于发射核弹头的导弹，如今被政府广泛用于阻止无人机技术的扩散，即便销售对象是美国的盟友。到目前为止，只有两个大国获准购买美国无人机技术——英国和意大利。

这和石油有什么关系？

中国不是《导弹及其技术控制制度》的签署国，因此在出售无人机上没有这样的限制。现在，中国的无人机已经进入了伊拉克和尼日利亚等国的军火库。中国不仅把无人机卖给这些国家，还用其作为谈判的筹码，确保在与这些国家进行石油贸易时获得有利的条款。

以尼日利亚为例。据说中国对尼日利亚的石油很感兴趣。中国在尼日利亚投资了数十亿美元建设碳氢化合物的基础设施，因为中国认为尼日利亚在国际石油市场上的地位将会日益提升。一些预测认为，到2050年，尼日利亚的人口将达到世界第三。假如真的如此，届时将会有更多机会来开采尼日利亚的石油，并利用该国对石油的更大需求。中国希望在这种增长的两个层面上都分一杯羹。

中国的石油需求位居全球第二，仅次于美国。因此，中国介入国外石油市场的情况在短期内不会改变。从美国政府的角度来看，这可能不会是个问题，不过，对于埃克森和雪佛龙这类依靠公平获取海外石油开采机会的公司而言，中国的无人机恐怕会是中国公司击败美国公司的杀手锏。当前油价走低，页岩油前途未卜，当美国股民们考虑可能更便宜的外国油源时，这样的优势是绝对需要关注的。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

审校：任文科

Perhaps the only major sector of the economy that has changed more than energy in the last decade is the defense industry. Military technology today differs radically from what was available a decade ago, with military news stories these days filled with talk of drones, rail guns, directed energy weapons, stealth fighters, stealth destroyers, and cyber warfare. Not all of these technological advances are staying limited to the defense industry though.

Take drones for instance. Drones represent a paradigm shift for military power – now aircraft and even some ground vehicles can be operated from thousands of miles away through a combination of remote human operation and preprogrammed computer routines. This type of technology is now radically altering many aspects of the oil and gas industry in ways that are both good and bad for U.S. companies.

On the positive side, drones are quickly becoming one of the best cost cutting tools in the oil patch. Rather than paying people to travel from site to site or along pipelines looking for problems, oil companies can dispatch drones to do the dirty work. Site exploration, production monitoring, and security concerns can all be handled with drones, which in many cases are self-piloting and are available from a variety of U.S. suppliers at reasonable prices.

Yet there is also a darker side to drones for U.S. oil companies and one that could threaten their ability to compete in foreign markets in the future. That threat comes from China. Military drones are arguably most useful for carrying missiles to attack ground targets in a way that is very low cost compared to conventional field armaments. In the U.S., a typical military drone might retail for around $5M. In China, that same drone might cost $1-2M. Both sets of drones are a pittance compared to a traditional fighter aircraft, which almost universally cost tens of millions. U.S. drones are superior to Chinese drones on a variety of technical metrics, but both sets of drones are functionally very useful for third world militaries that are looking for cheap airpower.

The problem for the U.S. and American firms is that the country is a signatory to a defense treaty from the Cold War Era that was intended to curtail the sale of missiles to launch nuclear warheads. This treaty, called the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), is now commonly applied by the government to stop the sale of drone technology even to U.S. allies. So far, only two major nations have been approved to buy U.S. drone tech – the UK and Italy.

How does all of this relate to oil?

The Chinese are not signatories to MTCR and thus face no such restriction on the sale of their drones. As a result, Chinese drones are turning up in the arsenals of countries like Iraq and Nigeria. But the Chinese are not just selling drones to these countries, they are also using these drone sales as a bargaining chip to secure advantageous terms related to oil in these countries.

Take Nigeria for instance. China is reportedly very interested in Nigeria’s oil. China has invested billions of dollars in hydrocarbon infrastructure in Nigeria because China sees Nigeria as having a rising degree of importance in the world and the oil markets. By 2050, some projections suggest Nigeria will have the third largest population in the world. As that development occurs, there will be more opportunities to exploit Nigerian oil and greater demand by the country for oil. The Chinese want a piece of both sides in that growth.

The Chinese demand for oil makes it second in the world behind the U.S. in consumption, and as a result Chinese involvement in foreign oil markets is not going to change anytime soon. From the American government’s perspective, this may not be a problem, but for companies like Exxon and Chevron that rely on fair access to overseas oil production opportunities, China’s drones may be the ace in the hole that gives the nod to Chinese firms over U.S. companies. And with the future of shale oil in question given current low oil prices, that advantage is definitely something that U.S. shareholders should care about when considering potentially cheaper foreign oil sources.