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商业 - 汽车

无人驾驶汽车时代,Uber这样的公司将成赢家,而汽车巨头们会输

Kirsten Korosec 2015年05月25日

据巴克莱银行的一份分析报告估计,美国目前有超过50%的汽车是用于上下班和接送孩子的。当自动驾驶汽车成为主流时,像Uber这样的共享租车服务完全可以覆盖通勤需求。人们的机动车保有量将下降50%,这将迫使福特和通用这类汽车巨头主动适应或是被动消亡。

    这份报告表示,这些变化对通用汽车和福特汽车的冲击最大,它们将不得不厉行改革,主动应变。而美国车桥公司这类主要面向卡车和高端车辆的企业则会相对安全。但那些传统的量产车厂商,甚至那些“相对安全”的豪华型性能车制造商将受到冲击。车辆更少就意味着对零部件的需求更少,只有那些能转变方向、适应汽车保有量大量减少这一现实的公司能够幸存下来。

    与此同时,这份报告称,2013年斥资5亿美元收购汽车共享创业企业Zipcar的安飞士•巴吉集团如果能管理一个SAV车队,就将处于不败之地。根据这种假设,梅赛德斯奔驰的制造商戴姆勒集团也早已为这一巨变做好了准备。2013年,这家德国汽车巨头就成立了一家主打汽车服务的子公司,该公司现在拥有moovel部门和汽车共享品牌car2go。Car2go用奔驰的小型车Smart为会员服务,目前在全球27个城市已拥有超过75万名会员。去年,它还收购了创业企业RideScout和出租车预订应用Intelligent Apps。

    巴克莱银行将最大的赌注押在了iStream这类低端创新者身上,这家初创公司计划打造专为汽车共享市场设计的廉价电动车,最终是生产共享型自动驾驶汽车。巴克莱看好的另一个赢家是英国公司Riversimple,它正在打造两座版的燃料电池汽车,并计划提供汽车服务而不是销售汽车。巴克莱银行尤其看好一家生产芯片的以色列公司,这种芯片可实现先进的驾驶者辅助功能。

    谷歌公司也在这一转变过程中占据了有利位置。巴克莱发现,谷歌主要是为传统及新兴汽车厂商提供软件,而不是生产汽车。

    该报告声称,随着其量产车逐步被SAV所取代,特斯拉公司可能会受到较大的负面影响。尽管巴克莱银行为特斯拉描绘了一幅危机四伏的未来图景,但应该指出的是,该公司一贯善于捕捉市场机会,并能在以前似乎毫无市场需求的领域设计出需求者众多的产品。

    特斯拉的电池技术、生产和软件领域的诸多创新——这都是真正有效的自动驾驶汽车市场的关键要素——以及其近期进入储能市场的动作,都说明该公司能很好地抓住市场向无人驾驶汽车转变的这一契机。

    就未来而言,对诺基亚公司地图业务的收购很说明问题。约翰逊向《财富》杂志表示,一家交通网络公司的主要兴趣将是确保其拥有稳定、连续的地图数据流。

    约翰逊表示:“对颠覆性移动服务领域来说,地图是一个锦上添花的配置。”(财富中文网)

    译者:阿周

    审校:任文科

    GM and Ford will be impacted the most by these changes and will have to restructure in order to adapt, according to Barclays. Companies like American Axle, which have a large exposure to work trucks and status vehicles, will be relatively safe. Still, suppliers to traditional mass-market automakers and even those “safer” luxury performance vehicles, will be impacted. Fewer vehicles will mean lower demand for parts and only companies that can pivot and adjust to much lower volumes will survive.

    Meanwhile, Avis Budget Group , which acquired car-sharing startup Zipcar for $500 million in 2013, is well positioned if it becomes a manager of SAV fleets, says Barclays. Under that premise, Daimler AG, the maker of Mercedes-Benz, is prepared for the shift as well. In 2013, the German car company launched a mobility services subsidiary, where it now houses its moovel unit and car-sharing car2go brand. Car2Go, which connects members with Smart cars, has more than 750,000 registered members in 27 cities around the world. In the past year, it has also purchased startups RideScout and the mytaxi cab-booking app Intelligent Apps.

    Barclays puts its biggest bet on low-end disruptors—startups like iStream that plan to build cheap electric vehicles designed for the car-sharing market and eventually shared autonomous vehicles. Other Barclays winners in this space include UK firm Riversimple, which is building a fuel-cell powered two-seater and plan to offer mobility as a service rather than sell its cars. Barclays is particularly fond of , an Israeli company that makes chips used for advanced driver assistance.

    Google is also well-positioned for the shift to driverless cars. Barclays sees Google offering software to traditional and new automakers, not producing the cars.

    Meanwhile, Tesla Motors could be negatively impacted as its mass market cars lose out to SAVs, according to the Barclays report. While Barclays paints a precarious picture for Tesla, it should be noted that the company has a record of jumping at market opportunities and designing products that create massive demand where there previously appeared to be none.

    Its battery tech, innovations in manufacturing and software—the essential ingredient for an effective autonomous car market—as well as its recent entry in the energy storage market all point to a company able to take advantage of a shift to driverless cars.

    Considering the future, the pursuit of Nokia’s maps business makes sense. A transportation network company’s key interest will be to make sure it has a steady uninterrupted flow of map data, Johnson told Fortune.

    “Mapping has emerged as the Spice of the disruptive mobility universe,” Johnson says.

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