GM and Ford will be impacted the most by these changes and will have to restructure in order to adapt, according to Barclays. Companies like American Axle, which have a large exposure to work trucks and status vehicles, will be relatively safe. Still, suppliers to traditional mass-market automakers and even those “safer” luxury performance vehicles, will be impacted. Fewer vehicles will mean lower demand for parts and only companies that can pivot and adjust to much lower volumes will survive.
Meanwhile, Avis Budget Group , which acquired car-sharing startup Zipcar for $500 million in 2013, is well positioned if it becomes a manager of SAV fleets, says Barclays. Under that premise, Daimler AG, the maker of Mercedes-Benz, is prepared for the shift as well. In 2013, the German car company launched a mobility services subsidiary, where it now houses its moovel unit and car-sharing car2go brand. Car2Go, which connects members with Smart cars, has more than 750,000 registered members in 27 cities around the world. In the past year, it has also purchased startups RideScout and the mytaxi cab-booking app Intelligent Apps.
Barclays puts its biggest bet on low-end disruptors—startups like iStream that plan to build cheap electric vehicles designed for the car-sharing market and eventually shared autonomous vehicles. Other Barclays winners in this space include UK firm Riversimple, which is building a fuel-cell powered two-seater and plan to offer mobility as a service rather than sell its cars. Barclays is particularly fond of , an Israeli company that makes chips used for advanced driver assistance.
Google is also well-positioned for the shift to driverless cars. Barclays sees Google offering software to traditional and new automakers, not producing the cars.
Meanwhile, Tesla Motors could be negatively impacted as its mass market cars lose out to SAVs, according to the Barclays report. While Barclays paints a precarious picture for Tesla, it should be noted that the company has a record of jumping at market opportunities and designing products that create massive demand where there previously appeared to be none.
Its battery tech, innovations in manufacturing and software—the essential ingredient for an effective autonomous car market—as well as its recent entry in the energy storage market all point to a company able to take advantage of a shift to driverless cars.
Considering the future, the pursuit of Nokia’s maps business makes sense. A transportation network company’s key interest will be to make sure it has a steady uninterrupted flow of map data, Johnson told Fortune.
“Mapping has emerged as the Spice of the disruptive mobility universe,” Johnson says.