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商业 - 科技

机器人会让人类失业吗?

Ben Geier 2014年08月11日

据皮尤研究中心在科技业的内部调查显示,约52%的人认为,对科技的依赖程度上升将使经济和就业市场受益。但另外48%则认为,在未来10年,机器人将取代大量白领和蓝领工人,这不仅将使许多人失业,也会破坏社会秩序。

    10年后,将出现机器人驾驶的出租车?很有可能。10年后,机器人将取代你的工作?或许吧。

    皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)的最新数据显示,对于到2025年,机器人和人工智能在经济和日常生活中的重要性,科技界人士抱有截然不同的观点。

    在这项名为“2014互联网的未来”的调查中,1,896名受访者——包括科技行业的研究人员、商业领袖和开发者,其中约52%的人认为,到2025年,机器人抢走的工作不会多于其创造的岗位,这意味着对科技的依赖程度上升将使经济和就业市场受益。

    另外48%则认为,在未来10年,机器人将取代大量白领和蓝领工人,这不仅将使许多人失业,也会破坏社会秩序。

    互联网法律与政策专家罗伯特•坎农表示:“在经济利好的情况下,‘对人类贡献’不足的非技术类工作将被自动化技术取代。比如五金店里切割钥匙的工作将被机器人取代。但这回避了一个实质问题:人类可以出什么力?一个简单的答案是,如果某一工作人类无法明确出力,那么这一工作有可能不复存在。”

    那些认为机器人数量增加只会带来纯粹负面影响的人也指出,由非人类劳动力代替低收入工人,将进一步扩大贫富差距,因为公司老板将会进一步通过裁撤蓝领工人,来增加利润。

    除了工作之外,市场研究公司GigaOM Research的首席研究员斯托•博伊德还指出了机器人可以与人类互动的其他方式。首先,他表示,你将再也见不到披萨外卖小子——他很快将被外卖机器人取代。而更色情的是,博伊德甚至认为,未来,机器人将进入人类的卧室。

    他说道:“人们对机器人性伴侣将习以为常,虽然这种现象会引发嘲笑和分歧,就像如今的批评家们哀叹,‘自拍’是世界上所有不良现象的代表一样。”

    这是一个怎样的世界啊!(财富中文网)

    翻译:刘进龙/汪皓

    Will a robot be driving your taxi in 10 years? Probably. Will a robot have taken your job in 10 years? Possibly.

    According to new data from the Pew Research Center, techies are split about just how important robots and artificial intelligence will be to the economy and to everyday life in the year 2025.

    Around 52% of the 1,896 people polled for a study titled “2014 Future of the Internet” — including technology industry research scientists, business leaders and technology developers — believe that robotics will not take away more jobs than it creates by 2025, meaning that increased reliance on the technology will actually be a net positive to the economy and the job market.

    The other 48%, though, think that robots will displace huge numbers of white and blue collar workers in the next 10 years, which would not only leave people unemployed but which could disrupt social order.

    “Non-skilled jobs lacking in ‘human contribution’ will be replaced by automation when the economics are favorable. At the hardware store, the guy who used to cut keys has been replaced by a robot,” said Robert Cannon, Internet law and policy expert. “This begs the question: What can the human contribute? The short answer is that if the job is one where that question cannot be answered positively, that job is not likely to exist.”

    Those who think that the increase in robotics will be a net negative also point out that the displacement of lower-income workers by non-human labor will vastly widen the already growing income gap, as the owners of businesses will see profit margins increase by being able to lay off their blue collar workers.

    Stowe Boyd, lead researcher for GigaOM Research, pointed out a few ways the robots could interact with humans everyday outside of work. For one, he said, you can forget about the teenage pizza delivery boy — he will soon be replaced by a delivery robot. More salaciously, Boyd sees a future for robots in the bedroom.

    “Robotic sex partners will be a commonplace, although the source of scorn and division, the way that critics today bemoan selfies as an indicator of all that’s wrong with the world,” he said.

    What a world.

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