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商业 - 科技 - 头脑风暴大会

纸媒至少还能活十年

Kurt Wagner 2013年07月25日

数字时代,纸媒命运如何?刚刚结束的财富科技头脑风暴大会上,曾供职于《时代》、《纽约时报》等旗舰纸媒的三位重量级新闻人发言称,纸媒至少还能撑过下一个十年。甚至有人打趣,如果先诞生的是电子媒体,几百年后诞生的才是印刷技术和纸媒,如今被颠覆的恐怕是电子媒体。

    关于新闻业中,他们比较看好的领域:

    萨根:“更多的声音可以在更短时间内被更多人听到。这非常强大。”

    休伊:“我认为,新闻业在好转之前,可能会继续恶化,类似于一个创造性破坏的产物……我认为,一旦真正出现信息空白,新闻行业从业者和企业家肯定能找到方法来填补这种空白。我不知道具体会是怎样的方法。但我相信,新闻业会继续存在下去。”

    纸媒会在10年内走向消亡吗?如果不会,我们还剩多少年时间?

    休伊:“我认为纸媒不会消失。虽然我不知道它会以怎样的商业模式运营,或许它们不再是大众产品,而是会变得非常昂贵……如果你问的是纯新闻报道的纸媒产品,答案是,时间可能不会很长。”

    尼森霍尔茨:“我同意。我认为在未来十年,纸媒会继续存在。”

    艾萨克森:“印刷术是一项非常了不起的技术。纸媒是一种非常好的媒介,不需要担心电池寿命问题。如果过去450年,我们一直通过电子屏幕来获取所有信息,到今天有一位古登堡(德国现代印刷发明人——译注)式的人物出现,说:‘嘿,我可以把你们屏幕上的信息印刷在纸上,送到你的家门口,你可以在公交车上、后院里、浴缸里读这些信息。’我们会说:‘哇!印刷,这真是一项出色的技术,而且有可能会逐步代替互联网。’”(财富中文网)

    译者:刘进龙/汪皓

    On the areas of journalism they are optimistic about:

    Sagan: "More voices able to reach more people more quickly. That's tremendously powerful."

    Huey: "I think it's going to get worse before it gets better which is a product of creative destruction… I think when there is a real void in information, it will be filled by journalists and entrepreneurs who will figure out a way around this. I haven't a clue what it is. But I'm confident that journalism will remain."

    Will print publications be extinct in 10 years? If not, how many years do we have?

    Huey: "I think we'll still have them. I don't know what the business models will be, they may not be mass, they could be very expensive… if you ask the question how many news print products, straight news, the answer might not be so long."

    Nisenholtz: "I agree. I think print is very sustainable for the next decade."

    Isaacson: "Look, print is a wonderful technology. Print is a very good medium that has long battery life. If we had been getting all of our information on screens for the past 450 years or so, electronically, and some modern-day Gutenberg came along and said 'Hey, I can take all that information you get on your screens and I can put it on paper for you, deliver it to your doorstep, you can take it to the bus, the backyard, the bathtub, whatever,' we'd say, 'wow! Print, that's a really good technology it might start replacing the Internet.'"

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