苹果（Apple）的投资者们都应该看看《苹果能否逃出魔咒》（Can a Leopard Change its Spots）这份报告，尽管他们肯定不会喜欢这篇文章。保罗·撒加瓦在文中详细分析了苹果与谷歌（Google）、微软（Microsoft）、亚马逊（Amazon）等公司的竞争形势。

    撒加瓦曾是Stanford Bernstein证券的分析师，现在康涅狄格州斯坦福德市的Sector & Sovereign 调研公司负责分析技术、媒体和电信行业。

    这份报告发布于11月19日，也就是苹果股价创9个月来新低后的第一个交易日，很好地反映了那些在8周内使苹果公司市值大降1,870亿美元的交易者们的心态。

    “天堂向左，地狱向右。”撒加瓦在开篇写道。“在主宰了新世纪第一个10年后，这场发轫于苹果的革命要开始革苹果自己的命了。iPhone每年仅更新一次，而且价格高昂。现在，大量的竞争对手都祭出了6个月的产品周期和低廉的价格这两大法宝，iPhone已节节败退。Android手机和iPhone的销量比如今已达5比1。iPad的情况如出一辙，竞争对手由于电子商务和广告等因素愿意贴钱销售设备，导致iPad的销量逐步下滑。与此同时，用户的关联体验正从设备向云端迁移，这也让苹果在充满互联网基因的竞争对手前处于不利地位。”

    下面是这篇报告其余段落的小标题，读者可以从中领悟到撒加瓦的观点。

    苹果因引领行业变革而大发横财，但如今却面临着要求改变公司DNA的战略挑战。

    全球市场，Android智能手机与iPhone的销量比已达5比1。针对新款Android平板的激进补贴政策正日益威胁着iPad的霸权。

    苹果正加快产品更新周期，扩大产品线，但此举只能延缓其市场份额下滑的趋势，而且还会进一步侵蚀其利润。

    随着平台整合，云服务正成为用户体验中的重中之重，但苹果在技术和基础设施方面远远落后于对手。

    企业级移动平台虽然发展缓慢，但前景极为广阔，不过苹果所处位置不佳，难以一展拳脚。

    苹果的“热核战争”代价高昂，而且令公司分心。范围更广的交叉授权协议不可避免，不过这对股东有好处。

    Apple (AAPL) investors aren't going to like it, but it behooves them to consider "Can a Leopard Change its Spots," Paul Sagawa's critical analysis of the company's competitive position vis a vis Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN).

    Sagawa, a former analyst at Stanford Bernstein, now covers technology, media and telecom for Sector & Sovereign Research in Stamford, CT.

    Posted Nov. 19, the first trading day after Apple's share price hit a nine-month low, his doomsday view is a bracing tour of the mindset of the traders who knocked $187 billion off the company's market value in eight weeks.

    "Apple is at a crossroads," Sagawa begins. "After dominating the first decade of the millennium, the revolution that Apple started is shifting against it. The iPhone, with its single annual update and super premium price, has been run down from behind by a pack of rivals with segmented product ranges, 6 month product cycles and aggressive price points. Android phones now outsell Apple 5 to 1, and the iPad is on the same path, exacerbated by rivals willing to subsidize device sales in pursuit of e-commerce and advertising. At the same time, the nexus of the user experience is shifting off of the device and into the cloud, greatly disadvantaging Apple vs. its web-savvy rivals."

    The headings of the paragraphs that follow will give you a sense of where he's headed:

    Apple caused a paradigm shift and reaped a windfall, but now faces strategic challenges that will require changing the company DNA.

    Android smartphones outsell iPhone 5 to 1 worldwide, while aggressive subsidies on new Android tablets threaten the iPad hegemony.

    Apple is accelerating its refresh cycles and broadening its product line, but can only slow its market share losses while accelerating margin erosion.

    Platforms are integrating cloud services as critical elements of the user experience, but Apple is far behind in the skills and infrastructure necessary.

    The slowly emerging opportunity for mobile platforms in the enterprise is huge, but Apple is poorly positioned to exploit it.

    Apple's "Thermonuclear War" is a costly, and ineffective distraction – broad cross-licensing agreements are inevitable and beneficial to shareholders.