大摩分析：中国智能手机滞销 将迎iPhone 6及4G热潮
• iPhone 6蓄势待发：休伯蒂接触到的大部分苹果分包商，都预期到12月，iPhone 6的需求将比去年圣诞期间的热卖机型iPhone 5S高出20％。休伯蒂个人预计需求涨幅为12％。
• 大屏效应：同时，AlphaWise四月为摩根士丹利进行的一项调查表明，大屏iPhone——传闻iPhone 6将是一款大屏手机——将帮助苹果在美国多获得11％的市场份额。
Katy Huberty is back from a trip abroad with fresh intelligence from the world's most important smartphone market: China.
In a series of three "takeaway" notes to clients, she reports:
• Inventory pile-up: The Chinese government is saying demand for new smartphones fell 9% year-over-year last quarter even as IDC reports shipments of phones into the region rising 37%. Huberty says the Chinese carriers are spending less on marketing and subsidies as they wait for the government to issue 4G licenses.
• iPhone 6 build-up: Most of the Apple subcontractors she spoke to expect demand for the new iPhone 6 by December will be 20% better than demand was for last year's big Christmas seller, the iPhone 5S. Huberty was only expecting 12% growth.
• Big-screen boost: Meanwhile, an April survey for Morgan Stanley by AlphaWise suggests that a larger-screen iPhone -- as the iPhone 6 is rumored to be -- could buy Apple 11 points of market share in the U.S.
Buyer beware: This Morgan Stanley prediction from last summer didn't quite pan out:
Below: How Huberty's findings have changed her smartphone model.