上周五，维基合伙人市场研究公司（Wedge Partners）的布莱恩•布莱尔在报告中提醒客户，华尔街对苹果公司（Apple）iPhone手机第二季度的销量预期可能非常离谱，甚至到了危险的程度。

    他说：“今年一月份，苹果公司报告上年第四季度的销量为3,700万部，这一数字相当惊人，而今年第一季度3,500万部的销量也同样强劲……我们的观点是，近期对iPhone手机销量的预期可能过高，而在每股611美元的股价水平上，这显露出了一些风险。”

    布莱尔预计今年第三季度的销量将在2,800万到3,000万部之间。

    他总结说：“如果分析师一致预测第三季度iPhone销量将达到3,100万部，那我们应该提高警惕了。”

    这种观点很有意思，因为我们对61位追踪苹果公司表现的分析师做过调研，其中包括27位职业分析师和34位独立分析人士。3,100万恰好是这两组分析师预测结果的分水岭。

    职业分析师的平均预期是2,954万部，而独立分析人士的平均预期是3,117万部。

    在其他领域，独立分析人士几乎是全盘看涨，而职业分析师则是普遍持谨慎态度。但对于iPhone销量的预期则正好相反。一些职业分析师给出了很高的预期，比如加贝利资产信托有限公司（Gabelli）分析师亨迪•苏山多预期达3,460万部，Societe General的分析师安迪•柏金思预期达3,300万部，他们给出的预期最高。而在另一极端上，数据调查机构Asymco的哈瑞斯•德迪欧和苹果财务讨论版论坛（Apple Finance Board）的考利•福斯伯格等独立分析人士给出了最低的预期，只有2,850万部。

    我们有六名保持着长期最佳记录的分析师。他们的预期通常会比最乐观的独立分析人士要低，而比最谨慎的职业分析师要高。他们六位本季度的预期结果比布莱尔提出的警戒线高出不少，平均预期达到3,210万部。

    7月24日周二收市后，苹果将公布其收益。届时我们将看到谁的预期最接近。

    各位分析师的预期见下图：职业分析师的结果用蓝色表示，而独立分析人士的结果用绿色表示。请关注两种颜色的交替出现，这种情况不太寻常。

    In a note to clients Friday Wedge Partners' Brian Blair warned that the Street's expectations for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone sales in the June quarter might be getting dangerously out of line.

    "In January," he wrote, "Apple reported a monstrous 37 million units for the December quarter, followed by an almost equally strong March quarter of 35 million units... Our view is that iPhone unit estimates may end up being too high near term, and with the stock at $611 it presents some risk."

    Blair is looking for Q3 sales to come in between 28 and 30 million units.

    "We would be cautious," he concludes, "if consensus expectations for units shape up to be 31 million units or higher for June."

    That's interesting, because in our survey of 61 Apple analysts -- 27 professionals and 34 independents -- 31 million iPhones happens to be the dividing line between the two groups.

    The average estimate among the pros is 29.54 million and the average among the indies is 31.17 million.

    But unlike other categories, where the indies are almost universally bullish and the pros universally cautious, the iPhone numbers are all over the lot, with professionals like Gabelli's Hendi Susanto (at 34.6 million) and Societe General's Andy Perkins (33 million) offering some of the highest estimates we've seen. At the other extreme, independents like Asymco's Horace Dediu and Corey Forsberg of the Apple Finance Board offered some of the lowest estimates: 28.5 million apiece.

    Our six analysts with the best track record, who usually offer estimates lower than the most optimistic indies but higher than the more cautious pros, came in this quarter well over Blair's warning line, with an average estimate of 32.1 million.

    We'll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its earnings after the markets close on Tuesday, July 24.

    Below the fold: The analysts' individual estimates, with the pros in blue and the amateurs in green. Note the unusual mixing of the two colors.