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专栏 - 苹果2_0

华尔街分析师热议苹果2012全球开发者大会

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年06月13日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
苹果2012全球开发者大会后,苹果公司在软、硬件领域的最新进展悉数亮相。华尔街分析师对苹果交出的成绩单看法各异。

    摩根•史丹利(Morgan Stanley)凯迪•休伯特:目前,苹果公司拥有4亿个关联信用卡的应用商店(App Store)账户,年比增长了78%。苹果的应用商店是如今互联网上账户最多的商店,我们认为,这是一项被低估的资产。相比较而言,截止2012年第一财季,亚马逊(Amazon)仅有1.73亿个账户。提高对中国市场的重视是保证苹果公司长期发展的关键。目前,我们推断,通过扩大iPhone手机在中国市场的销售,2013财年,中国将为苹果公司贡献33%的增量收入。苹果公司宣布,将整合百度(Baidu)、新浪(Sina)、优酷(Youku)和土豆(Tudou),改进中文输入,推出新中文字典,新增八种字体,并在Siri中加入普通话和粤语,这些都表明,苹果在巨大的、持续增长的中国市场加大了投资。

    德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)克里斯•怀特摩尔:此次全球开发者大会上公布了许多经过增强的功能,但没有太大的惊喜。“大会主旨内容和大家的期待是一致的,我们的模式也没有发生改变。我们预计,软件/Siri功能的增强以及新硬件的推出将为iOS平台吸引更多用户和开发者——加强苹果公司在手机操作系统中的领先地位(3.65亿iOS安装基数),并进一步推动苹果操作系统的跨平台衍生。苹果公司似乎正在通过其跨平台应用(游戏中心)、iCloud(合同、文件分享等)和消息功能(iOS6将手机号码与苹果账号绑定,用户可以在Mac、iPad和iPhone上发送/接收信息),推动其手机操作系统和电脑操作系统的整合。这种跨平台整合将提高iOS(iPhone、iPad和Apple TV)和Mac平台的用户黏着度,并使整个苹果生态系统更具吸引力,聚集更多应用开发者和用户。”

    杰富瑞投行(Jefferies & Co.)分析师皮特•米塞克:硬件与软件升级;亮点颇多。“我们认为,蒂姆•库克有一支强大的团队作为后盾,他们取得了出色的成就。我们认为,大会公布的新产品和升级将使开发者和消费者激动不已……我们认为,苹果电视信息太多,不适合在本次大会公布。目前我们得到的消息是,苹果将在3至6个月内举行专场发布会推出苹果电视。我们认为,苹果电视的发布时间将会在2012年下半年。”

    巴克莱银行(Barclay)本•雷特兹:今年开发者大会的焦点是软件,硬件的发布并未达到预期。“我们认为,许多软件创新远远超出预期,但苹果竟然没有介绍公司为苹果电视编写应用的能力,这让人有些吃惊。虽然会上公布的硬件给人留下了深刻印象,但却并未发布更实惠、性价比更高的教育专用MacBook Air。此外,大会也没有发布新型iMac,而且采用视网膜屏的也仅有新Macbook Pro。因此,投资者可能对苹果有更高的期望。不过,我们还是很期待今年九月初,下一代iPhone和其他关键硬件产品发布的另一场盛会。”

    全球证券研究公司(Global Equities)特里普•乔杜里:产品升级还算不错,但没有太大突破。“对Facebook和推特(Twitter)的整合没有什么意义。没有史蒂夫•乔布斯,苹果就只能提供这些吗??”

    译者:刘进龙/汪皓

    Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty: Apple now has 400M App Store accounts with credit cards, which is up 78% Y/Y. This is the store with the most accounts on the Internet today and it is an underappreciated asset in our view. For comparison, Amazon had 173M+ accounts as of C1Q12.... A focus on China is key to long-term growth. We currently model China contributing 33% of incremental revenue in CY13 driven by expanded distribution of the iPhone. Apple announced new integration with Baidu, Sina, Youku and Tudou as well as improved Chinese text input, a new dictionary, eight new fonts, and both Mandarin and Cantonese language integration with Siri, which all reflect the significant investments Apple is making to target this large and growing market.

    Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore: Many enhancements but no big surprises at WWDC."The announcements were in-line with expectation and our model is unchanged. We expect the software / Siri enhancements and new hardware to attract users and developers to the iOS platform- extending AAPL's lead in mobile OS (365M iOS install base) while driving greater cross-platform fertilization... It appears Apple is driving increased convergence between its mobile and computing OS's through cross-platform applications (Game Center), iCloud (contacts, document, etc sharing) and messaging (iOS6 unifies phone number & Apple ID so users can send/receive messages across their Macs, iPad and iPhones). This cross platform convergence should increase the stickiness of the iOS (iPhone, iPad and Apple TV) and Mac platforms while making the entire Apple ecosystem increasingly attractive to App developers and users alike."

    Jefferies Peter Misek: Hardware and Software Refresh; Lots to Get Excited About. "Tim Cook delivered a solid performance aided by a strong cast, in our view. We believe there are plenty of new products and updates for both developers and consumers to get excited about... We believe there was too much content for a TV to be announced. We now see a TV being unveiled at its own event likely within the next 3 to 6 months. We believe the launch of the device is still a 2H 2012 event."

    Barclay's Ben Reitzes: Software the Focus of WWDC, Hardware Launches not quite as Broad as Expected. "We believe many of the software innovations were ahead of expectations, but we were surprised not to see Apple introduce the ability to write apps for Apple TV. The hardware announcements were impressive but excluded a lower priced MacBook Air Price Performance for education. Also, no new iMacs were released and only the new Macbook Pro received a retina display. As a result, investors likely expected more. Nevertheless, we expect another major event in early September to release the next iPhone and several other key hardware products."

    Global Equities' Trip Chowdhry: Nice refresh, but no breakthroughs. "Common sensical integration of Facebook and Twitter. Is this the best we can get from Apple, post Steve Jobs??"

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