专栏 - 苹果2_0


Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年05月30日


    投资银行Piper Jaffray公司的分析师吉恩•蒙斯特借鉴传统媒体和网络媒体所用的常规手法,把自己对苹果公司(Apple)的看法归纳为10大要点。


1. 雄心勃勃的产品路线图。蒙斯特预计,未来12个月里,苹果将密集推出一系列新产品和产品更新,包括新款iPhone、笔记本电脑Mac、新iPad和苹果电视。

2. 大幅升级iPhone 5。他预测,这一幕将在10月揭晓,用他的话来说,那将是“2012年最盛大的消费电子产品发布,也是智能手机史上最大的一次产品升级”。

3. 2013年推出苹果电视。对此蒙斯特并未失去信心。他预计,苹果电视将于今年12月推出,定价在1,500美元至2,000美元,屏幕尺寸在42英寸到55英寸之间。

4. 运营商将继续提供补贴。这种状况至少还会持续两三年。尽管不断有人议论,要降低运营商对iPhone的补贴,但运营商喜欢卖苹果手机所带来的低流失率,喜欢苹果手机轻松大卖的本事,而且每卖出一部手机还不用向苹果公司返利。

5. 高达40%的毛利率。在科技类公司中,苹果的利润率一直是众人垂涎的对象。蒙斯特预计,这种高利润率至少还能维持三年。

6. “心脏移植”战略。指的是苹果公司要尽快淘汰旧产品,精简产品线,获得最佳零部件采购价格(这些都将转化为更高的利润)。

7. 中国的接受曲线。在美国,iPhone 4S第二财季的销售下降了34%。蒙斯特认为,这种情形在中国市场不会发生。iPhone和iPad在中国才刚刚起步。

8. 平板电脑的销量将超过个人电脑。蒙斯特预测,到2020年,平板电脑的销售将超过个人电脑,iPad将继续统治市场。

9. 企业销售。苹果不会改变重点。它将继续依靠消费者市场推动面向企业市场的销售——至少iPhone和iPad这两种产品将继续维持这一策略。Mac则不会获得这种重视,因为与微软公司不同(Microsoft),苹果不会一直为旧版操作系统提供支持,直至其面临淘汰。

10. 科技界规模最大的注册用户基础。尽管苹果的服务业务(iTunes、苹果商店等)仅仅只做到了收支平衡,但这些服务已使其硬件平台规模庞大,极富黏性。用户一旦购买了某个苹果产品,从此就会一发而不可收。


    Borrowing one of the oldest devices in print and online journalism, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster has boiled his thoughts about Apple (AAPL) into something like a top 10 list.

    Munster is on record predicting that the company's share price -- which closed at $565.32 Thursday -- will hit $1,000 within two years. Here are his 10 ideas about how it gets there:

1. An aggressive product roadmap. Munster expects a rapid sequence of new products and product updates over the next 12 months, including a new iPhone, new Macs, a new iPad and a TV.

2. A huge iPhone 5 upgrade. He predicts it will happen in October and be, in his words, "the biggest consumer electronics product launch of 2012 as well as the biggest device upgrade cycle in smartphone history."

3. Apple television in 2013. Munster hasn't lost the faith. He expects it to be announced this December and priced between $1,500 and $2,000 for screen sizes ranging from 42" to 55".

4. Carrier subsidies to continue. For at least another 2-3 years. Despite the chatter about reducing the subsidies they pay for the iPhone, carriers like the low churn rates, the fact that the device sells itself and that they don't have to pay Apple a bounty for each sale.

5. 40% gross margins. Apple's profit margins are the envy of the tech sector, and Munster expects them to continue for at least three more years.

6. "Heart transplant" strategy. This is Apple's strategy of eliminating old products as quickly as possible, streamlining its product line and securing the best component prices possible (which translates to higher margins).

7. China's adoption curve. In the U.S., iPhone sales slowed down 34% in the second quarter of iPhone 4S sales. Munster doesn't think that will happen in China, where the iPhone and iPad are just taking off.

8. Tablets will be bigger than PCs. By 2020, Munster estimates, tablets will be outselling personal computers and the iPad will still dominate the market.

9. Enterprise sales. Apple won't change its spots; it will continue to rely on consumer adoption to drive adoption in the corporate market -- at least for iPhones and iPads. Macs not so much, because unlike Microsoft (MSFT), Apple doesn't support old operating systems until the end of time.

10. The largest registered user base in the tech world. Although Apple runs its services (iTunes, App Store, etc.) at just above break-even, those services make Apple's hardware platforms both very big and very sticky. Once you give Apple your credit card number, you tend to stick around.