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专栏 - 苹果2_0

华尔街分析师热议苹果2012全球开发者大会

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年06月13日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
苹果2012全球开发者大会后,苹果公司在软、硬件领域的最新进展悉数亮相。华尔街分析师对苹果交出的成绩单看法各异。

    苹果公司(Apple)全球开发者大会(World Wide Developer's Conference)于本周一召开,华尔街人士针对大会主旨演讲反应不一。对此次大会,大部分人都持积极态度,不过,之前苹果分析师的预测高于实际情况,现在,他们必须保守一些了。

    投资公司Piper Jaffray的吉恩•蒙斯特:硬件设备增强,网络整合扩大了iOS与安卓(Android)之间的差距。“我们认为,最让人吃惊的是,苹果不仅加强了其自有生态系统内部的互动,还与实力强劲的网络合作伙伴结成了一个联盟,提供的用户体验大大跳出了谷歌(Google)的框框。我们认为,整合重要的网络合作伙伴将进一步强化iOS与安卓之间的差异。我们相信,谷歌根本不可能像苹果一样如此有效整合网络合作伙伴。比如苹果与Facebook的合作使iPhone实际上成了‘Facebook手机’。而语音助手Siri功能的增强则是对谷歌最直接的打击。上周,我们在讨论谷歌地图时便已预料到这种情况。Siri的内容增加了体育比赛结果,并可通过OpenTable预订餐厅,此外还包括影讯等信息。我们相信,苹果将继续为Siri物色更多内容合作伙伴,最终将谷歌在iPhone中的影响彻底边缘化。”

    国际战略投资集团(ISI)布莱恩•马绍尔:苹果笔记本更新有望保持良好势头。“史蒂夫•乔布斯之前的成就无法复制,但我们认为,蒂姆•库克和其他高管(如全球营销高级副总裁菲尔•席勒、iOS软件部高级副总裁斯科特•福斯特等)的表现也非常出色,确保了苹果公司的忠实用户始终保持着较高的满意度。虽然此次未推出新苹果电视Apple TV操作系统,让有些人略感失望,但我们认为,这是因为苹果公司希望将注意力集中到Mac平台。苹果一直在这一平台稳扎稳打,抢占市场份额。苹果公司宣布对MacBook Air(MBA)和MacBook Pro(MBP)这两款笔记本进行升级,配备速度更快的处理器,更出色的图像处理,以及USB 3.0接口等,而新操作系统美洲狮(Mountain Lion)将在7月份上市。但实际上,苹果的重点产品是下一代、旗舰版MacBook Pro(新MBP)笔记本,该款笔记本将配备15.4’’屏幕,分辨率高达2800 X 1800的视网膜显示屏,并融合了MBP的强大动力(如最高2.7Ghz处理器、16GB RAM、独立显卡等)和MBA的实用性(如厚度只有0.71英寸、高达768 GB固态硬盘等),目前新MBP低配的定价为2,199美元(如2.3Ghz处理器、8GB RAM、GT 650M 1GB显卡、256GB固态硬盘)。”

    The Street's reactions to Monday's World Wide Developer's Conference keynote have started to drift in. The verdicts were mostly positive, but Apple (AAPL) analysts whose predictions outpaced reality had a little backtracking to do.

    Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster: Strengthened Device And Web Integration Widens Gap Between iOS And Android. "We believe the biggest takeaway is that Apple is strengthening not only the interaction within its own ecosystem, but also creating a consortium of powerful web partners to offer an experience that largely falls outside of Google's walls. We believe this focus on integrating important web partners continues to meaningfully differentiate iOS from Android. We believe Google is unlikely to ever engage in the same type of partnership as Apple and Facebook, making the iPhone the de-facto 'Facebook phone'... Apple's expansion of Siri is a more direct shot to Google that we had expected last week as detailed in our discussion of Google Maps. Siri content has expanded to include sports results, OpenTable reservations, and movie times. We believe Apple will continue to add content partners for Siri to marginalize Google's presence on the iPhone.

    ISI's Brian Marshall: Notebook refreshes should maintain momentum. "While Steve Jobs' past performances are impossible to duplicate, we believe presentations by Tim Cook along with senior executives (e.g., SVP of Worldwide Marketing Phil Schiller, SVP of iOS Software Scott Forstall, etc.) did a solid job keeping the AAPL faithful satisfied. While some may have been mildly disappointed that a new Apple TV OS was not introduced, we believe AAPL wanted to focus attention on the Mac platform which is positioned to continue taking share, in our view... AAPL announced refreshes to both the MacBook Air (MBA) and MacBook Pro (MBP) with faster processors, better graphics, USB 3.0 ports, etc. and a new OS (Mountain Lion) available in July. The highlight however was the next-generation, flagship MacBook Pro (new MBP) which features a 15.4", high-res 2,880x1,800 Retina display and the power of a MBP (e.g, up to 2.7Ghz processor, 16GB RAM, discrete graphics, etc.) with the utility of a MBA (e.g., 0.71" thin, up to 768GB SSD, etc.) priced at $2,199 in the base configuration (e.g., 2.3Ghz processor, 8GB RAM, GT 650M 1GB graphics, 256GB SSD)."

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