人们常常忘了，就在六年前，iPod还是苹果公司（Apple）最大的摇钱树。2007年第一季度，iPod的销售额占苹果公司收入的48％以上。而现在，在苹果季度财报中挑大梁的变成了iPhone、iPad和Mac电脑，iPod则几乎成了个可有可无的小角色，在苹果六个收入来源中，名列倒数第二位。它的销售收入排在iTunes之后，配件产品之前。

    上图中最后一项是根据54位苹果分析师——31位华尔街专业分析师以及23位业余分析师——提交的iPod单品销量估值的中位数（620万部）绘制。分析师们一直预测，自iPhone和iPod touch推出以来的趋势将继续延续：经典款iPod的核心业务日益被iOS设备吞并。

    这是一个产品颠覆的经典案例，只不过颠覆iPod这颗摇钱树的不是别人，正是苹果公司自己。

    根据颠覆理论，苹果公司的工程师现在应该做的是发明未来将吞并iPhone的产品。

    下表列出了迄今我们的分析师小组中各分析师提交的iPod单品销量预估值。其中，华尔街专业分析师给出的数值（平均预估值为622万部）略高于业余分析师们给出的平均估值（615万部）。待苹果于4月23日报告其2013年第二财季收入时，我们将看到谁的估值与实际销量最接近。

    再次感谢Posts at Eventide的罗伯特•保罗•雷涛带来独立苹果分析师组织Braeburn Group的数据。（财富中文网）

    译者：项航

    It's easy to forget that only six years ago the iPod was Apple's (AAPL) biggest money maker, generating (in Q1 2007) more than 48% of the company's revenue. Now the iPod is almost an afterthought in quarterly reports dominated by the iPhone, iPad and Mac -- second-to-last among Apple's six revenue streams, below iTunes and above Accessories.

    The last entry in the chart above was drawn using the median estimate of iPod unit sales (6.2 million) submitted by 54 Apple analysts -- 31 Wall Street professionals and 23 amateurs. They all expect the trend that began with the launch of the iPhone and the iPod touch to continue: More and more of the original iPod's core business absorbed by iOS devices.

    It's a classic case of product disruption, except in this case a company disrupted its own cash cow.

    According to disruption theory, what Apple's engineers should be doing now is inventing the product that will absorb the iPhone.

    Below: The individual iPod unit sales estimates submitted so far by our panel of analysts. In this instance, the pros (with an average estimate of 6.22 million) are slightly more bullish than the amateurs (6.15 million). We'll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its fiscal Q2 2013 earnings on April 23.

    Thanks once again to Posts at Eventide's Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.