苹果（Apple）即将推出iPhone 5S，至于时间？6月，7月，或者9月之前都有可能。苹果还将同时推出一款廉价版iPhone，当然，时间也可能在9月后。总之，以上就是三位分析师做出的预测。至于说他们预测的依据何在，还是让他们自己来讲吧。三人原话如下：

    加拿大皇家银行（RBC）分析师阿米特•德莱纳尼：“通过对供应链的考察，我们确定苹果将在今年第二季度或第三季度初同时发布两款手机：iPhone 5S，以及低端廉价版iPhone。低端iPhone的屏幕和iPhone 5一样，都为4英寸，不过外壳材质是塑料，而且不支持视网膜高清显示。虽然这款产品的毛利率可能低于iPhone 5和iPhone 5S，但它有望提升苹果公司38%的整体毛利率。所以，我们预测低端iPhone在2014年有望为苹果贡献220亿美元营收，并使每股收益增加5美元。苹果股价有望因此上涨超过50美元。”

    投资银行Cannacord分析师迈克尔•沃克利：“我们最初预测苹果将于今年6月发布iPhone5S。不过经过对手机市场的分析以及与供应商的讨论，我们最终确定这一时间为今年夏天或第三季度。此外，大量极其出色的高端Android智能手机新近上市，有望在2013年第二季度热卖，因此我们认为苹果的市场份额在2013年上半年将有所下滑。有鉴于此，我们下调了对iPhone在2013财年第三季度的销量预测。我们还确信，苹果将发布一款更具价格优势的中端iPhone，以更好地切入以预付费为主的国际市场。据此我们已经调整了苹果2014财年预测以及平均售价预测。”

    瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）分析师库彼得•格切：“根据我们与亚洲团队的接触，我们认为苹果在今年年中时不但会推出新的iPhone 5，而且还将推出一款专门定制的低端iPhone。我们认为，总体而言，这是一个利好，因为它能维持收入和净利润增长（有助于实现我们对2013和2014财年分别为44.92和54.03美元的每股收入预期），以及应对来自Android和三星（Samsung）的销量和生态系统竞争威胁，同时继续提高苹果手机的装机量。”

    这样的预测对苹果的用户以及其竞争者意味着什么？要回答这个问题，我推荐阅读iMore上雷内•里奇的大作《iPhone 5S问题》。（财富中文网）

    译者：项航

    Apple (AAPL) will launch the iPhone 5S in June or July or before September. The company will launch a lower-priced iPhone simultaneously or maybe after September.

    Anyway, that's what these three analysts predict based on ... well, I'll let them tell you themselves. In their own words:

    RBC's Amit Daryanani: "Our supply-chain checks indicate that... AAPL will launch the iPhone5s and a more affordable but lower-end iPhone at the same time, in either late CYQ2 or early Q3. The low-end iPhone will have the same 4" form factor as the iPhone5 but will have plastic casing and no retina display... The product may have lower GMs than iPhone5/5s but should be accretive to AAPL's corporate GMs of 38%. Hence, we estimate this could contribute $22B in revenues and $5.00+ in EPS in CY14E, which suggests the product could be worth $50+ to AAPL's stock price."

    Cannacord's T. Michael Walkley: "Based on our handset market analysis and discussions with suppliers, we believe Apple could launch a refreshed iPhone 5S this summer or during Q3/C2013 versus our initial expectation for a launch in June. Further, with a host of impressive recently launched high-end Android smartphones expected to ramp in Q2/C2013, we believe Apple could lose smartphone market share during 1H/C2013 and have reduced our Q3/F2013 iPhone estimates... We also believe Apple will launch a more competitively priced mid-tier iPhone for pre-paid international markets and have adjusted our F2014 estimates and ASP assumptions."

    Credit Suisse's Kulbinder Garcha: "Our checks in conjunction with our Asian team point to Apple not only refreshing the iPhone 5 mid-year but also a specifically targeted low-end iPhone. We believe in aggregate this a positive as it can sustain top and bottom line growth (giving upside to our FY13/14 EPS of $44.92/$54.03), deal with the competitive ecosystem and volume threat from Android/Samsung and continue to drive growth in Apple's installed base."

    What do such predictions mean for Apple's customers and competitors? For that analysis, I recommend Rene Ritche's The "iPhone 5S" problem on iMore.